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01/01/2005-31/03/2005
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31/03/2005
Fair, as in free trade

PPI reports:

Almost half a million Sri Lankans work making clothes. In January, 23 million pairs of gloves, 25 million pieces of ladies’ underwear, nine million T-shirts and a million suits left the port of Colombo for the United States. Sticking with the island despite the December tsunami (which spared inland garment factories, and did only minor damage to the Colombo port), as well as competitive pressures from India and China, the buyers paid Sri Lanka $198 million for the clothes. Then they paid $26 million in tariffs to the U.S. Customs Bureau. The tariff is the equivalent of a tax of 13 cents on the dollar. In the same month, 4,000 cars and nearly a million gallons of vodka arrived from Sweden in America’s Atlantic ports. Twelve thousand cell-phones and 10,000 cubic meters of wood from Finland joined them. So did two million kilos of cod, turbot, and other fish from Iceland; 200,000 kilos of crab and salmon from Greenland and the Faeroes; hundreds of thousands of barrels of North Sea crude from Norway, along with 75 tons of smoked salmon and $4 million in turbojet parts. Denmark supplied, among other things, 667 tons of cheese for American tables and $65 million in insulin and blood sera for our hospitals and clinics. The value of the Scandinavian goods was just under $2 billion. Did the buyers of Absolut vodka, Nokia phones, lox, oil, and Volvos pay $260 million, as they would if they faced a tariff like that on Sri Lankan goods? No. They paid $15 million, or less than a penny per dollar. Why the disparity? The nine postwar international trade agreements have eliminated or deeply cut American tariffs on most types of goods. The Volvos, for example, get a 2.5 percent tariff. Nokia phones, Absolut vodka, Danish insulin, and Norwegian lox get no tariffs at all; neither do turbojets or fresh fish. The main exceptions, where tariffs have been left high, are clothes, shoes, and a few other household goods. (Cheese is also an exception. So are light pickup trucks.) Thus Sri Lanka’s top exports -- cotton pants, cotton shirts, and bras -- all have tariffs between 16 percent and 20 percent. Special low-income preference programs excuse most of Latin America and Africa from these taxes. Asia’s low-income countries -- Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Nepal, Mongolia, and others -- have no similar program.
Wouldn’t it be fair to treat clothes the same way as Volvo’s, and the poor of Asia in the same way as the poor in Latin-America? Wouldn’t it be fair to make trade totally free?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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30/03/2005
Getting personal

Jeffrey Sachs and William Easterly are all over themselves about how to use development aid to... aid development. They have profoundly different views, but lately things are also getting personal, it seems. Both AdamSmithee and William Polley have put forward the view, to which i subscribe, that both economists should stop feuding and put their brains together to make aid work better. Over at Crooked Timber however things seem to be different. Easterly probably is too critical of aid and lays to much emphasis on it’s failures for their left-wing tastes. Now I can understand that you want Easterly not to stop on just being critical but also to make some positive contributions. He made some here however, which I pointed to in a comment. Henry Farrell was kind enough to mention this in an update of his post. However, Daniel Davies in comments went much further, making it personal again:

The point I would make is that anyone, no matter how well meaning, who publishes a piece of work which suggests that the aid we give to the Third World doesn’t do all that much good, is quickly going to find himself with a lot of new friends. And that, while I take your points about the value of negative critique, there is a duty on anyone who is presenting a piece of work which he knows to be quite politically convenient to nasty people, to be very suspicious indeed about his new friends, to be very cautious about accepting money from them and to be very wary of having words put into his mouth. I’m not sure that Easterly’s always been as circumspect as he might have been in this way (and independently, I think he has on a couple of occasions been really quite selective in cherry-picking examples to support various theses about those awful corrupt Third World political classes).
So Easterly has some nasty new friends thus what he is saying is suspect. I think this kind of reasoning itself is quite suspect. It’s the argument itself that counts, not the man who is arguing, let alone the friends he has. (See Arnold Kling for an elaboration). I commented, quite tamely:

I hope we are not on a slippery slope here. Of course accepting money from new nasty friends could be wrong, but we must also be very carefull not to fall in the trap of self-sensorship. It would be equally wrong not to defend an argument, especially when you believe it to be true, because that will give you lot’s of unwanted friends.
AdamSmithee however was much more sanguine:

Daniel: You admonish Easterly “to be very suspicious indeed about his new friends, to be very cautious about accepting money from them and to be very wary of having words put into his mouth” and suggest that “I’m not sure that Easterly’s always been as circumspect as he might have been in this way” -any evidence to support that? Are MIT (his publisher) or the Center for Global Development or the New York University (his employers) Republican fronts? Has he been paid off by the Heritage Foundation to fix the results of his regressions?
I think AS is more on the mark here than I am. Easterly is not a conservative, and of what I’ve read of him, I’m sure he is not ill-disposed towards aid. He is sceptical, however. And yes he is pro-market and he wants to use market instruments to make aid work better. But because of this suggesting that he has been paid of without furthering real evidence is unfair, to say the least. It’s not much above the level of the Heritage Foundation, and you know what I think about them. And it’s the wrong kind of argument anyway. Until now Davies has not responded.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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30/03/2005
Sigh

This is why i - the generally pro-market anti-government right-wing Flemish Beerdrinker - think that the generally pro-market anti-government right-wing Heritage Foundation sucks:

In the ongoing exploration of what DNA reveals about the origin of life, some anti-establishment scientists are abandoning naturalistic explanations for the origin of genetic information and looking to theories of design for answers. In almost every scientific discipline there is newly found evidence that supports the theory of intelligent design. A growing number of scientists around the world no longer believe that natural selection or chemistry, alone, can explain the origins of life. Instead, they think that the microscopic world of the cell provides evidence of purpose and design in nature – a theory based upon compelling biochemical evidence. Join us as Dr. Stephen C. Meyer, a key design theorist and philosopher of science, explains this powerful and controversial concept on the mysteries of life.
Intelligent design is not a theory, it’s a fad. By supporting it, the Heritage Foundation is making a mockery of itself. How can we trust those guys on other topics ever again? (Via Kevin Drum)

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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29/03/2005
Frankrijk: etatisme of fascisme?

De Tijd schrijft:

De voorzitter van de Europese Commissie, José Manuel Barroso, mag niet in een programma op de Franse televisie verschijnen. Een programma met Barroso zou onder druk van de Franse regering geannuleerd zijn. Het nieuws volgt op een nieuwe opiniepeiling die een Frans ’neen’ tegen de Europese grondwet voorspelt. France Télévisions, de groep die de openbare televisiezenders France 2, 3 en 5 bundelt, annuleert een programma met Barroso. Dat deelde een woordvoerder van France Télévisions gisteren mee. Het Franse weekblad L’Express meldt in zijn jongste editie dat de diensten van de Franse premier, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, druk uitoefenden op France Télévisions. Het geannuleerde programma had op donderdag 21 april op het scherm moeten verschijnen. Het was de bedoeling dat Barroso zich gedurende honderd minuten zou verdedigen tegen een panel van experts en journalisten. De Franse president, Jacques Chirac, zou woedend gereageerd hebben toeh hij hoorde van het geplande optreden van Barroso.
Merk op dat Barroso geen vrijgeleide zou gekregen hebben. Neen, hij moest zich verantwoorden voor een panel! Ik vraag me af: zouden in dat panel veel voorstanders van de Bolkestein-richtlijn gezeten hebben? Maar dan nog menen president en regering dat ze zich mogen moeien met de inhoud van televisie-programma’s. En de betrokken televisie-omroepen en journalisten vinden het blijkbaar niet nodig om hiertegen te protesteren? Vinden ook zij dat aanhanger zijn van een vrije markt tegenwoordig ook gelijk staat met communisme? En dat dergelijke aanhangers dan maar moeten worden doodgezwegen? Indien wel, dan denk ik dat het zogezegde Franse etatisme roemloos aan het afglijden is naar iets veel ergers. Je weet wel wat.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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29/03/2005
Equal pay nonsense

Why unequal pay for woman does not mean discrimination and why feminists should support the free market. Chris Dillow elaborates:

No sane person these days believes in the labour theory of value. Even John Roemer, an economist sympathetic to Marxism, has described it as “not a useful empirical theory.”

But there’s one place where this silly idea is still believed – in the Equal Pay Act, the law requiring that women get equal pay for work of equal value.

The Equal Opportunities Commission summarizes the law thus:

The EPA describes equal value in terms of the demands of jobs. It gives ‘effort skill and decision’ as examples of particular demands…What matters are the demands made on employees by their work, rather than the value of the work to the employer.

This is absurd. What matters to an employer is the value of that employee to him – or more precisely, her marginal product. Output matters, not inputs.

Think of it this way. A recurring, if under-emphasized, theme of studies of the labour market is that observable skills account for only a small proportion of the variation in wages. R-squareds on Mincer equations are often less than 25 per cent; see for example, this paper or this one. Many apparently identically qualified people have unequal wages.

How should we react to this?

The neoclassical economist says such differences reflect differences in unobservable skills, or other differences that yield different marginal products. From this perspective, the Equal Pay Act is just grossly inefficient managerialism. It’s the pretence that experts can second-guess markets.

However, you don’t have to believe this to believe the Equal Pay Act is silly. There are, at least, four problems with it.

1. It’s arbitrary. Let’s say differences in wages are due to luck. An unlucky woman then has a claim for compensation under the EPA, but an unlucky man doesn’t. I suspect this is the case for some of the high-profile cases brought by women in the City. Salaries there vary enormously from individual to individual, often without any obvious link to merit.

2. Women are not the only victims of discrimination. Wages differ according to height (pdf), looks and whether one has a tidy home. But the EPA doesn’t protect short ugly untidy people from discrimination.

3. The Act imposes a mindless equality. If a woman proves her work is more valuable than a man’s, she’s not entitled to higher pay than him. The EOC says: “Tribunals cannot award higher pay for work of greater value.”

4. The Act doesn’t ask how discrimination is possible.

Consider a tribunal’s recent decision that nurses were discriminated against because they were paid less than medical technicians, despite having comparable skills. Why, if this is the case, would anyone want to become a nurse rather than a technician? It’s not as if the pay gap has only just emerged.

One obvious answer is that there are non-wage advantages to being a nurse. You get job satisfaction. You get respect; nurses used to be called angels, whereas lab technicians rarely are. And nurses can have lots of choice about the type of work they do and where they do it. These compensating advantages might explain the pay gap between nurses and technicians. In one sense, they must do so – why else would someone choose to train for a low-paid job when they could train for a higher-paid one?

Feminists might reply that women’s preference for lower-paid but more rewarding work is the result of women being indoctrinated into gender roles at a young age.

But is this really true? Lots of men have this preference – me, for one; I left the City to take a lower-paid but more rewarding job in journalism. And even if the feminists are right, so what? Are people really entitled to compensation because they would be unhappy if their preferences were different?

Feminists, of course, have another reply - that women are, obviously, paid less then men. But this alone is not proof of discrimination.

One of the best recent investigations of this question is this huge pdf, published by the EOC. It found that women who work full-time earn 18 per cent less than male full-timers.

However, much of this gap is due to factors other than discrimination. Men have more education than women (1.4 percentage points of the gap); they have more experience (3.5 percentage points); they work in larger firms; and so on.

The report found that only seven percentage points of the 18 per cent pay gap was a pure gender effect. But even this is not proof of discrimination. It might just reflect differences in preferences and motivation. It is, the authors say: “the upper limit on the component of gender discrimination that is direct discrimination.”

That said, there might also be indirect discrimination. Women who have dropped out of work to care for children subsequently have lower earnings, even controlling for the direct loss of work experience; there seems to be a wage penalty for childcare. But it’s easy to imagine that this penalty might be due to lower marginal products, rather than to employers’ ripping off women.

But let’s say I’m wrong here, and that women – and women alone – are systematically paid less than their marginal product.

If this is the case, it can only be the result of monopoly or monopsony power. In a textbook competitive market any employer who tried to pay a woman less than her marginal product would find her lured away to a higher-paying firm.

True systematic discrimination, therefore – as distinct from either justifiable or random wage differences – can only be due to market imperfections. As Gary Becker has said, competition is a friend of minorities.

In this sense, feminists should support a free market economy. So why don’t they?


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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27/03/2005
European constitution

Czech president Vaclav Klaus do not trust the framers of the new European constitution. He believes that:

the authors and enforcers of the new EU Constitution believe:

That "competition is not the most powerful mechanism for achieving freedom, democracy and efficiency, but rather an unfair and unproductive form of dumping."

That "intrusive regulation, ruling and intervening from above are necessary because market failure is more dangerous than government failure."

That "the premise that government is ultimately a benevolent force, obliged to guarantee equal outcomes by redistributing benefits and privileges between individuals and groups."
Time to read the constitution. I would find the first point especially troublesome, because that would be a complete misreading of what competition really is and really can do.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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27/03/2005
Fact of the day

War on drugs is wrong, says Bush’s favourite think thank. So are policies going to change? Not in your life.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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27/03/2005
From NAFTA to Bolkestein

Will economic integration lead to a race to the bottom and to the erosion of social standards towards the lowest denominator? Maybe the experience with NAFTA can offer some clues. The Canadians feared that their social model - which is more European than American - would come under pressure because of it’s membership of NAFTA. Those fears turned out to be unjustified, to say the least:

Canadian labor markets are highly unionized and government standards play a bigger role than in the United States. Unemployment benefits, social welfare programs, minimum wages, and public health care are more generous. Since health care is a particular worry, the comparative statistics are worth noting. The Canadian federal and provincial governments have provided universal health insurance since 1960. In the United States, governmentassured health insurance covers only 33 percent of the population, while private insurance brings the US total coverage up to 85 percent of the population. On the basis of these differences, some Canadians fear that economic pressures will threaten their public health system. These fears are overblown, as Canadians increasingly recognize. If the Canadian health system were more costly than the US health system, there would be reason to worry. However, the public system in Canada consumes 9.6 percent of GDP while the mixed public/private system in the US consumes 14.6 percent of GDP. In Canada, public health enables employers to avoid costly private systems. To the extent health costs figure in business location decisions, Canada is a cheaper place to do business. Furthermore, (...) total public spending on labor market programs is much higher (relative to GDP) in Canada than in the United States or Mexico. Canada’s large public deficit in the early 1990s (8 percent of GDP) prompted a political reaction that led to substantial cuts in social spending, health and education. By 2004, Canada featured one of the best public budget positions among developed countries (a general government surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP). Yet, the Canadian health system still provides universal coverage and despite budget cuts, real public spending per capita on health care in Canada rose 1.8 percent annually between 1990 and 2000. Changes in the social safety net will come about if Canadians lose faith in their system and turn to the US model. The opposite could also happen. In the larger scheme of things, deeper economic integration is a comparatively weak force. If economic integration determined the size of social safety nets, Nevada and California would have similar systems. So would Alberta and British Columbia. They do not. Increased economic integration with the United States does not force any country to adopt US-style social policies. Countries choose their own social cohesion programs and adjust their resources to the program and vice versa. Canadians can have as much welfare state as they are willing to pay for. Trade and financial globalization increase the resources available for safety net spending, if that’s what a country chooses.
French president Jacques Chirac and the European unions should take some comfort. It is possible to integrate the new member-states into a bigger internal market, without a destruction of the European welfare state. If our social system is that good and efficient at delivering the goods as some say it is, then there is nothing to fear about. The population will choose to keep it. Have faith!

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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27/03/2005
I am an economist

Jeffrey Sachs notes that 400 U.S. individuals have a bigger income than the incomes of 161 million Africans combined. That’s right: 400 versus 161 million. How to respond to this appaling fact? Tyler Cowen has bundled some reactions:

Left-wingers think: "My goodness, how can so few have so much? They were lucky anyway. Let us raise marginal tax rates."

Randians think: "Hail the productive powers of capitalism!"

Rawlsians think: "They didn’t produce that wealth, we did."

Others think: "My goodness, Africa is screwed up."

The economist? The economist wonders why there is not more trade between the two groups...
I’m an economist.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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25/03/2005
Not with my money

Where is your tax money going? Part of it goes to...the queen of England...and other filthy rich...farmers:

What have the Queen of England, Prince Charles and Tate and Lyle, the sugar company, got in common? Answer: they have all been milking subsidies from Europe’s Common Agriculture policy. The Queen and Prince Charles received £1 million during the past two years but Tate and Lyle hit the jackpot – with receipts of £233m over the same period. It may have something to do with the 300% export subsidy that sugar attracts.
Eliminate agricultural subsidies. Eliminate them now:

Instead of a politics-as-usual debate over a trivial 3.5% decrease in agricultural subsidies, policymakers should reconsider why the federal government subsidizes agriculture at all. It hurts the world’s poor, makes food prices higher for consumers in the U.S., and the benefits don’t accrue to small farmers. Of course politicians don’t debate ending farm subsidies because it would eliminate one type of "food"—the pork congress members get to dole out
(See kickAAS)

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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25/03/2005
More on Wolfowitz

Left-wing media critic Eric Alterman talks to Paul Wolfowitz. His report here. A few snippets:

3) Indonesia. Wolfowitz is extremely proud of his work in Indonesia and the Philippines. I got the distinct impression that he does not think this story has been told accurately—and he wishes that George P. Shultz had done more with the story in his memoir. He was constantly being warned, vis-à-vis Marcos, that the Reagan administration was doing to Marcos what Carter had done to the Shah and the results would be similar. He managed to convince everybody to do it anyway, with a happy result, he thinks.

4) Somalia. Wolfowitz is also proud of what “41` (Bush Sr., IJ) did in Somalia, as a purely humanitarian mission before it got screwed up later. That led me to ask about:

5) Liberia. Why, I asked him, didn’t the Bush administration act more precipitously in Liberia? It could have saved tens of thousands of lives and scored political points against people like me who have, to put it politely, a hard time taking the humanitarian arguments for the Iraq war seriously. Wolfowitz did not really disagree with this. He said he was glad he was able to get the administration to act when it did. He clearly wanted to leave the impression that he would have liked it to happen earlier -without explicitly criticizing his own administration for not having done it. He spoke of the logistical difficulties of finding the necessary troops and of what happens after you get rid of the bad guys. (Hmmmm)

6) The Sudan. Wolfowitz also clearly indicated that he would like to see something happen to save the people who are still savable in Dafur, etc. Again, he said nothing clearly quotable on this point; but it was my clear understanding of the way he put things that he wanted to leave this impression as well.
Again it confirms my impression of Wolfowitz as a decent guy genuinely interested in spreading freedom and democracy and genuinely concerned with those who suffer. Trotskist Christopher Hitchens writes:

He has long had a close relationship with centrist democrats in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia, and though centrist democrats might not sound very exciting, they are an improvement on the democratic centralists of Tiananmen Square (loved by the Kissinger crowd) or the pseudo-democrats such as Ferdinand Marcos or Gen. Suharto, favored by the more Cold War neocons. Wolfowitz was one of the first to go ashore in the tsunami relief operation mounted by the U.S. Navy, an operation widely and rightly accounted a major success. He prizes his Asian contacts and the relationship with moderate Islam that they symbolize.

On the excruciating question of Israel/Palestine, Wolfowitz is not at all the "Likud" fan that his defamers portray. He almost went out of his way to be jeered and hooted at a pro-Israel rally in Washington in the early days of the Bush administration, by telling the gung-ho crowd not to forget the suffering of the Palestinians. He has spoken quite clearly of linkage between the demolition of Arab rejectionism and the demolition of Jewish settlements. I can’t exactly say that I know the man, but on the occasions that I have met him I have been very struck by the difference between his manner and the amazing volleys of obloquy and abuse that have been flung at him.
He would be the perfect man for the job.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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25/03/2005
A neo-neocon?

Yep, a neo-neocon:

when I started this blog, I chose the name without too much deep reflection. But I know what I had in mind. "Neocon" is usually used as a pejorative, unfortunately, and I wanted to try to rescue it from this fate and wear it proudly (although somewhat tongue-in-cheek). When I was a liberal and liberals were under attack, I used to say that I didn’t understand what all the fuss was about. Of course, now I understand a lot better, since I’m making some of that fuss myself. I think I always was more of a classic liberal (as in "social liberal or mild libertarian") than a leftist-type liberal (as in "thinking the US is a force for capitalist global imperialist evil"). I used to say to critics that I was proud to call myself a liberal. Now I’m doing essentially the same thing regarding being a neocon. "Neocon" is used by critics as a code word for a lot of things, among them: imperialist, unrealistic dreamer, and scheming puppeteer (along with its subset, scheming evil Jewish puppeteer). I am not using it in any of these senses. I am using it to mean a person, socially liberal, who espouses a foreign policy that includes the vigorous support of the spread of democracy and freedom around the world. Neocons usually believe that such a spread of democracy would be both a good thing in and of itself, and a practical thing as well, since the belief is that it will lead to greater peace and prosperity for everyone, including the US. The "neo" in "neocon" traditionally also refers to the fact that the originators of this position came mostly from the ranks of liberals or even leftists. Although it’s not always used this way any more, it is another way in which the word seems to apply pretty well to me. And since my political change has been relatively recent, I thought the extra "neo" would be particularly appropriate.
(Hat tip: marxist neocon Norman Geras)

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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25/03/2005
Het spook Bolkestein

Er waart een spook door Europa, nee niet het spook van het communisme. Het is het spook van Frankenstein, pardon, Bolkestein. Bolkestein heeft het immers aangedurfd een al bij al bescheiden richtlijn op te stellen om voor wat betreft de diensten - 70% van de economie - een interne markt te creëren tegen 2010. Voldoende om bij de Europese vakbonden de stoppen te doen doorslaan. Vorige week betoogden in Brussel 60.000 mensen tegen de richtlijn, opgeroepen door de Europese vakbonden. Waarom eigenlijk? Omdat, zo valt te lezen deze week in Visie, het weekblad van het ACW, de richtlijn:

alle diensten, van post, over openbaar vervoer, tot bouwen en arbeidsbemiddeling zou liberaliseren. De vrije markt zou vrij spel kennen: wie het goedkoopste produceert, wie aan de laagste lonen werkt, wint.
Doorheen het artikel, eigenlijk een interview met Jan Renders, de voorzitter van het ACW, roept Renders het schrik- en spookbeeld op van een maximaal uitgebreide vrije markt die diensten van algemeen belang zoals onderwijs, zorg en welzijn ten gronde zal richten. De richtlijn zou leiden tot sociale dumping, tot het onderuit halen van onze arbeidsvoorwaaden.

Een eerste aspect is of een uitbreiding van de vrije markt, of beter, de totstandkoming van een grotere interne markt (wat niet hetzelfde is als een markt waar alles vrij is en waar er geen regels zijn, verre van), leidt tot sociale afbraak in het "oude" Europa. Ik ben daar niet zo van overtuigd. Blijkbaar komt het niet bij het ACW op dat een grote interne markt evengoed in het tegenovergestelde kan resulteren: namelijk het verbeteren van de voorwaarden in de landen van Oost-Europa. Dankzij de opengestelde interne markt kunnen die landen gemakkelijker hun diensten waar ze een comparatief voordeel in hebben naar ons "exporteren". Dat resulteert in hogere economische groei in die landen en tot stijgende lonen. Ongeloofwaardig? Kijk naar India, waar de lonen in de ICT-sectoren jaarlijks met dubbele cijfers stijgen. Bovendien, naarmate de Oost-Europese landen dankzij economische integratie met de rijke buren ten Westen van hen meer welvaart creëren, beschikken ze over meer middelen dan nu die ze (al dan niet, maar dat beslissen ze zelf) kunnen besteden voor sociale doeleinden. In plaats van een nivellering naar onder, krijgen we een nivellering naar boven, op economisch en sociaal vlak.

Bij het ACW is evenmin het besef doorgedrongen dat het net goed is dat diegene die het goedkoopste produceert, wint. Misschien zal de Westerse arbeider in de dienstensectoren in de toekomst aan lagere lonen moeten werken (wat dus helemaal niet zeker is, zie boven), maar als men de producenten die het goedkoopste produceren laat winnen, zal hij tevens voor veel diensten in de toekomst minder moeten betalen. En dus gaat zijn koopkracht finaal toch de hoogte in. Goedkopere diensten, net zoals goedkopere producten, zijn goed voor de consumenten, voor de mensen dus. Onbewust erkent het ACW dat de vrije markt werkt voor wie het zou moeten werken, voor de consument namelijk. Het bewijst nogmaals hoe weinig de vakbond eigenlijk geeft om "jan met de pet". Men rijdt voor zichzelf.

Overigens is het niet juist te stellen dat diegene die het goedkoopst produceert, per definitie diegene is die werkt aan de laagste lonen. Wat telt is de productiviteit. Diegene die werkt aan de hoogste productiviteit kan producten goedkoop aanbieden én hoge lonen betalen. Hoe kan men de productiviteit verhogen? Door schaalvoordelen te realiseren bijvoorbeeld. Hoe kan men schaalvoordelen realiseren? Misschien kan een grotere interne markt wel helpen...

Maar goed, over dit alles kan men van mening verschillen. Erger is dat de vakbonden over de richtlijn Bolkestein doelbewust misleidende informatie verspreiden. Ofwel heeft men de richtlijn niet gelezen maar aangezien Renders uitdrukkelijk stelt dat het ACV en CM een belangrijke rol hebben gespeeld bij het analyseren van de richtlijn, moet ik er vanuit gaan dat men goed weet waarover het gaat en dat men dus liegt.

Ten eerste handelt de richtlijn enkel over diensten van algemeen economisch belang. Die toevoeging economisch is belangrijk, want het houdt in dat niet-economische algemene diensten zoals onderwijs uitdrukkelijk uit het toepassingsveld van de richtlijn zijn uitgesloten. Toch zegt Renders meermaals dat de richtlijn ons onderwijs in het gedrang brengt.

Ten tweede het zo vermaledijde "land van oorsprong"-principe, het principe dat stelt dat Polen en Tsjechen hier kunnen komen werken tegen de arbeidsvoorwaarvan van hun vaderland. Dat zou dus, volgens het ACW, betekenen dat alle diensten worden geliberaliseerd. Alle diensten? De Post (kijk naar afwijking nr.1)? Huh? Hier is de lijst met uitzonderingen op het principe van land van oorsprong. Het zijn er drieëntwintig (23!):

Artikel 17
Algemene afwijkingen van het oorsprongslandbeginsel
Artikel 16 is niet van toepassing op:
1) postdiensten als bedoeld in artikel 2, punt 1, van Richtlijn 97/67/EG van het Europees Parlement en de Raad36;
2) de distributie van elektriciteit als bedoeld in artikel 2, punt 5, van Richtlijn 2003/54/EG van het Europees Parlement en de Raad37;
3) de distributie van aardgas als bedoeld in artikel 2, punt 5, van Richtlijn 2003/55/EG van het Europees Parlement en de Raad38;
4) de distributie van water;
5) aspecten die zijn geregeld bij Richtlijn 96/71/EG;
6) aspecten die zijn geregeld bij Richtlijn 95/46/EG van het Europees Parlement en de Raad39;
7) aspecten die zijn geregeld bij Richtlijn 77/249/EEG van de Raad40;
8) het bepaalde in artikel […] van Richtlijn …./../EG van het Europees Parlement en de Raad [betreffende de erkenning van beroepskwalificaties];
9) de bepalingen van Verordening (EEG) nr. 1408/71 betreffende het toepasselijke recht;
10) de bepalingen van Richtlijn …./../EG van het Europees Parlement en de Raad [betreffende het recht van de burgers van de Unie en hun familieleden om zich vrij op het grondgebied van de lidstaten te verplaatsen en er vrij te verblijven en tot wijziging van Verordening (EEG) nr. 1612/68 en tot intrekking van de Richtlijnen 64/221/EEG, 68/360/EEG, 72/194/EEG, 73/148/EEG, 75/34/EEG, 75/35/EEG, 90/364/EEG, 90/365/EEG en 93/96/EEG], waarin de administratieve formaliteiten zijn vastgesteld welke door de begunstigden moeten worden vervuld bij de bevoegde instanties van de gastlanden;
11) de door de lidstaat van terbeschikkingstelling overeenkomstig de voorwaarden van artikel 25, lid 2, opgelegde verplichting voor onderdanen van derde landen een bezoekersvisum aan te vragen, wanneer zij ter beschikking worden gesteld;
12) het vergunningstelsel als bedoeld in de artikelen 3 en 4 van Verordening (EEG) nr. 259/93 van de Raad 41;
13) de auteursrechten, naburige rechten en rechten bedoeld in Richtlijn 87/54/EEG van de Raad42 en Richtlijn 96/9/EG van het Europees Parlement en de Raad43, alsmede de industriële-eigendomsrechten;
14) handelingen waarvoor de wet de tussenkomst van een notaris voorschrijft;
15) wettelijke accountantscontroles;
16) diensten die in de lidstaat waarnaar de dienstverrichter zich verplaatst om zijn dienst te verrichten, onder een volledig verbod vallen dat gerechtvaardigd is om redenen van openbare orde, openbare veiligheid of volksgezondheid;
17) specifieke eisen van de lidstaat waarnaar de dienstverrichter zich verplaatst, die eigen zijn aan de bijzondere kenmerken van de plaats waar de dienst wordt verricht en waarvan de inachtneming onmisbaar is voor de handhaving van de openbare orde, de openbare veiligheid, de volksgezondheid of de bescherming van het milieu te garanderen;
18) het stelsel van toestemming met het oog op de vergoeding van de kosten voor intramurale zorg;
19) de inschrijving van voertuigen die in een andere lidstaat worden geleast;
20) de vrijheid van de partijen om het op hun contract toepasselijke recht te kiezen;
21) consumentenovereenkomsten betreffende de verrichting van een dienst, voor zover de toepasselijke bepalingen niet volledig op communautair niveau zijn geharmoniseerd;
22) de formele geldigheid van contracten waarbij rechten op onroerende zaken ontstaan of worden overgedragen, wanneer op deze contracten volgens het recht van de lidstaat waar de onroerende zaak is gelegen verplichte vormvereisten van toepassing zijn;
23) de niet-contractuele aansprakelijkheid van de dienstverrichter bij ongevallen in het kader van zijn activiteit jegens een persoon in de lidstaat waarnaar de dienstverrichter zich verplaatst.
Let ook op uitzonderingen 16 & 17: is dit een maximale uitbreiding van de vrije markt? Is dit een markt zonder regels? Huh?
De richtlijn as such is evenmin van toepassing op vervoersdiensten, dus openbaar vervoer valt evenmin onder de richtlijn-Bolkestein.

Waarom blijft het ACW dan het fabeltje verkondigen dat Bolkestein in alle diensten de sociale afbraak gaat organiseren? Waarom?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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23/03/2005
Actief pluralisme en de 24 uurs economie

Als Steve Stevaert het werkelijk meent met het "actief pluralisme", kan hij niet anders dan voorstander zijn van een verruiming van de openingsuren van winkels. Sterker nog, dan moet hij voorstander zijn van de 24 uurs economie, zij het dat de diverse actieve minderheden het recht hebben om die 24 uur naar goeddunken in te vullen. De economie draait dan 24 uur op 24, zeven dagen op zeven, maar niet voor iedereen tegelijk.

Ik verklaar me nader. De vrije markt, wanneer deze naar behoren werkt, heeft één ding voor op de overheid, zelfs een democratische overheid. Deze laatste werkt volgens het meerderheidsprincipe. Als de meerderheid beslist dat winkels om zeven uur ’s avonds sluiten, en je moet tot zeven uur werken bijvoorbeeld, dan ben je gezien. Zelfs wanneer je bereid bent meer te betalen, dan nog geraak je niet aan het product of dienst dat je wil. De meerderheid heeft dat namelijk beslist.

De markt daarentegen werkt niet volgens het principe van de meerderheid. Hier geldt het principe van de actieve minderheden, waarbij zo’n minderheid ook kan bestaan uit één individu. Stel een minderheid zou graag op zondag willen winkelen. Bijvoorbeeld om boeken te kopen. Die minderheid moet immers werken in de week, moet zaterdag het gras afrijden, en vindt het zoeken en kopen van boeken op een zondagnamiddag een zalige manier om de tijd door te brengen. De leden van deze minderheid zijn dan ook bereid een hogere prijs voor een boek te betalen, want er hangen nog heel wat andere aangename zaken rond. Bovendien is het voor deze minderheid ook de enige manier om aan een boek te geraken (toegegeven met het internet is dit niet helemaal realistisch, maar dat doet nu even niet ter zake).

Omdat het aantal personen die op deze manier hun tijd willen besteden op zondag wellicht beperkt is, zal het niet zo zijn dat iedere boekenwinkel zal moeten openen op een zondagnamiddag. Maar dat is nu het mooie van de markt. Tegenover de minderheid die boeken wil lezen en kopen op zondagnamiddag zal er nu een minderheid van aanbod ontstaan, zodat vraag en aanbod op mekaar wordt afgestemd. Breidt dit nu uit naar de ganse economie en op elk moment van de dag en van de week zal er wel ergens een economische activiteit ontstaan, zodat alle soorten minderheden aan hun trekken komen en worden bediend door minderheden (maar net voldoende om vraag gelijk te maken aan aanbod, want als er te veel aanbod is, zullen er bedrijven failliet gaan of fuseren) van aanbieders. Actief pluralisme ten voeten uit.

Spijtig genoeg is er altijd wel een meerderheid te vinden - en Stevaert behoort bij die meerderheid - die zegt dat dat niet mag, winkelen op zondag of ’s avonds. En als lid van een minderheid die graag winkelt op zondag, moet ik me dan neerleggen bij die meerderheid. De werking van de markt wordt verstoord, wat erg is voor een libertijn zoals ikzelf, maar er wordt ook afbreuk gedaan aan het actief pluralisme. En dat zou ook erg moeten zijn voor Steve Stevaert.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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23/03/2005
Quote of the day

"people can’t drink paper or rights; they need actual water"

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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23/03/2005
Een slecht gevoel

Luc Perceval:

Ik krijg een heel slecht gevoel bij het huidige nieuws en duiding, als ik zie hoe iemand als Bush in onze media voorgesteld wordt als een verspreider van democratie, terwijl hij naar mijn bescheiden mening een regelrechte fascist is die de wereld op de knieën dwingt.
Excuseer me mijn taalgebruik maar naar mijn bescheiden mening is Perceval een idioot! Wat een fascist moet je wel zijn om Saddam en de Taliban op de knieën te dwingen? En hoe éénzijdig is een pers die bericht dat er verkiezingen zijn in Afghanistan en Irak en die durft te suggereren dat dit misschien toch wel eventueel een heel klein beetje te maken zou kunnen hebben met de interventie van de door de fascist Bush geleide Amerikanen? Aha, maar Luc Perceval zegt dat Bush een fascist is en dus moet de pers Bush zo dan maar afschilderen, ander krijgt hij er nog een slecht gevoel van. De gevoelens van de bevrijde Irakezen en Afghanen interesseert mijnheer Perceval blijkbaar niet. En daar krijg ik nu een slecht gevoel van.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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20/03/2005
Richest world leaders are not exemplars of capitalism

I don’t know why Castro is so mad at Forbes. Is it because they called him one of the world richest people or because they said he was not an "exemplar of capitalism"?

Cuban President Fidel Castro has criticized Forbes magazine for the "infamy" of listing him among the world’s richest people, with a net worth of $550 million. "Once again, they have committed the infamy of speaking about Castro’s fortune, placing me almost above the queen of England," Castro said in a speech to top officials of Cuba’s ruling Communist Party, military and police. (...) On Tuesday Forbes published a story on the fortunes of the world’s richest rulers and heads of state, including Castro, Britain’s Queen Elizabeth and the Sultan of Brunei, saying none were "exemplars of capitalism" and did not qualify for the world billionaires list.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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20/03/2005
Competition

Economists like uncommon idea’s. So do proponents of capitalism, mostly, but not always the same economists. One such idea is the idea that competition is what we need to make capitalism work it’s magic. A related idea is that it is the intervention of government (not the size of companies, or collusion between companies...) that makes competition unworkable. Bryan Caplan explains:

Proponents of capitalism often seem to go against common sense. They maintain that left entirely to their own devices, profit-maximizing businesses will charge reasonable prices to consumers, maintain product quality, pay workers according to their productivity, and constantly strive to do even better. But if business only cares about the bottom line, why not charge consumers exorbitant prices for junk, and pay all workers their bare subsistence? The answer is competition. A business that gives consumers a bad deal soon has no consumers left. They take their patronage elsewhere. An employer who pays productive workers less than they are worth faces the same dilemma. A rival employer will "steal" these workers by offering them a raise. Why bother to maintain product quality? Because cutting corners is penny-wise, pound-foolish: You save on production costs, but sacrifice your firm’s reputation. Once you look at the economy through the lens of competition, the whole picture changes. To the untrained eye, greedy businesses "take advantage" of consumers and workers. Due to competition, however, the road to profit is lined with good intentions: To succeed, you must give your customers and employees a better deal than anyone else. It is easiest to see the impact of competition in markets with thousands of small firms. Economists call this "perfect competition." The wheat market is a classic example. If one farmer charged more than the prevailing price, all his customers would switch to one of the thousands of alternative suppliers. Under perfect competition, firms produce until the product price equals the marginal cost of production. Moreover, competition ensures that firms produce at the minimum average cost. Any firm with higher costs will be undercut. It is an elementary economic theorem that perfect competition’s triple equality of price, marginal cost, and average cost maximizes society’s gains to trade; it is, in economists’ jargon, "fully efficient." This conclusion is easily misinterpreted. It does not mean that only perfect competition is fully efficient. Perfect competition is a sufficient condition for efficiency, not a necessary one. It is important to bear this in mind because in most industries, perfect competition will not naturally arise, and would be disastrous to impose. Perfect competition normally exists only if the minimum efficient scale - the smallest quantity a firm can produce at the minimum average cost - is small relative to industry demand. (Figure 1) If minimum efficient scale is large relative to industry demand, in contrast, only a few firms can survive; a small firm would have enormous average costs and be undercut by larger rivals. (Figure 2) Fortunately, is entirely possible for market performance to be as good with few firms as with many. Indeed, two genuine competitors may be enough. Imagine that two firms with identical and constant marginal costs supply the same product. The firm with the lower price wins the whole market; if they offer the same price, each gets half. Competition still induces each firm to price at marginal cost. Why? If the firms initially ask for $1.00 above marginal cost, each firm could steal all of its competitor’s business by cutting its price by one penny. Like an auction, price-slashing continues until price and marginal cost are equal. What if the minimum efficient scale is so large that only one firm can survive? Surely competition breaks down? Not necessarily. As long as there is potential competition, a single firm may act like a perfect competitor. As long as other equally able firms would enter the market if it became profitable, the incumbent firm cannot raise prices above the competitive level. Note, though, that in this case competition drives price down to average cost, but not marginal cost. (Figure 3) Given fixed costs, a firm that set price equal to marginal cost would lose money. When does competition not work? The simplest and most empirically relevant answer is: when government makes competition illegal. In agriculture, governments have long strived to hold prices above the free-market level. The sector would be perfectly competitive in the absence of regulation, but many deem this outcome politically intolerable. Restrictions on international trade like tariffs do the same for domestic firms. Licensing and related regulations have kept prices above free-market levels in airlines, trucking, railroads, and other industries. The intensity of government restrictions on competition varies. In the post-war era, they were especially draconian in the Third World. Under the rubric of "import substitution industrialization," many less-developed nations cut themselves off from world markets with strict tariffs and quotas. Internal policy matched, with hand-picked firms receiving strict monopoly privileges. Such policies are in retreat, but remain a heavy burden for developing countries. Public opinion and antitrust laws tend to overlook monopolies created by the government. Instead, they focus on firms’ alleged ability to hold prices above average costs even though it is perfectly legal to compete against them. There is a simple, common, and relatively harmless way to achieve this: be the best. If the lowest-cost firm can produce shoes for $10 per pair, and the second-lowest requires $12, then the former can safely charge $1.99 more than its own marginal cost. While this is not perfectly efficient, the problem is mild. Indeed, punishing industry leaders for being the best ultimately hurts consumers by reducing firms’ incentive to leap-frog over the current industry leader. There are two other commonly-cited paths to free-market monopoly: collusion and predation. The idea of collusion is that the firms in an industry stop competing with each other. This might be achieved through merger to monopoly, a formal cartel arrangement, or an informal "gentlemen’s agreement." Under United States antitrust laws, these are all either illegal or heavily regulated. When it was legal, collusion was still easier said than done. Even if the number of firms is small, it is hard to get all of them to sign a cartel agreement, and even harder to actually honor it. As the number of firms rises, the creation of viable voluntary cartels soon becomes practically impossible. Regardless of industry concentration, though, the most fundamental check on collusion is new entry. Once all of the firms currently in the industry raise prices, what happen when outsiders notice their inordinately high profits? Existing firms could invite them to join the cartel, but then the cartel has to share its monopoly profits with anyone and everyone. But if new firms are not admitted, they will undercut the cartel and ruin the arrangement. What about predation? The idea is to condition your price on the behavior of other firms. You threaten to give the product away until you are the only firm left; once consumers have no other choice, you raise prices to recoup your initial losses. But predation, even more than collusion, is easier said than done, and there are few good examples even before the existence of antitrust laws. The hitch is that the predator loses far more money than the prey. If the predator begins with a 90% market share, it loses at least $9 for every $1 than its rivals lose. It is not enough for the predator to have slightly "deeper pockets" to outlast the prey; in this example, their pockets need to be at least nine times as deep. Other factors amplify the predator’s troubles: Rivals can temporarily shut down; consumers may stock up when prices are low, making it hard to recoup the losses; successful predators may attract the attention of large-scale entrants with even deeper pockets than their own. In sum, competition is a robust mechanism for reconciling individual greed and the public welfare. The key is not the number of firms in a given industry, but whether competition is legally permissible. More firms may reduce the probability of collusion, but that is unlikely to happen anyway. "Trust-busting" and other artificial efforts to reduce concentration tend to backfire. Industries are concentrated because the minimum efficient scale is large. Nevertheless, governments can do much to strengthen competition: They can repeal the panoply of policies designed to curtail it.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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20/03/2005
Economists versus politicians

Chris Dillow compares economists with politicians. The politicians loose, big time. This i found the most appealing:

Economists love counter-intuitive ideas. The two most successful theories in economics are probably comparative advantage and the invisible hand – things that don’t strike the layman as obvious. This leads to us stressing paradoxical notions – like the notion that outsourcing can be a good thing. Good politicians, by contrast, prefer sound-bites that corroborate the public’s prejudices.
I have two bones to pick however. First, politicians preferring sound-bites are not good, they are bad. Because they do not tell the truth. Second, it’s not just politicians. Union leaders, intellectuals and even many business leaders (they are the worst in my view) don’t seem to understand theories like comparative advantage and the invisible hand either. Or they pretend not to...

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19/03/2005
Honderd bezoekers

Eindelijk! Vandaag voor de eerste keer de kaap van honderd bezoekers op één dag overschreden. Internationaal bekeken en zelfs relatief tot de meeste bezochte Belgische bloggers is dat nog altijd drie maal niets, natuurlijk. Maar vroeger was het vijf maal niks. Misschien heeft het te maken met het feit dat Luc Van Braekel mij "één van de meest ondergewaardeerde Vlaamse nieuwsbloggers" heeft genoemd. Bedankt he Luc!

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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19/03/2005
Wolfowitz prepares for his job...

Hehe, Paul Wolfowitz is not preparing for regime change at the World Bank. Mmmm, i don’t know if this is good news. But, hey, when Bush was campaigning for the 2000 elections he didn’t talk about any regime change either. On the other hand Wolfowitz has had two long conversations with Bono that other possible candidate. What a guy, a hawk on defense, a jew with an Arab feminist girlfriend, taking advice from a rock star for his new function as World Banker.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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19/03/2005
It feels like a funeral...

Many at the World Bank seem to be very upset with the possible appointment of Wolfowitz as the new president. The mood at the World Bank "feels like a funeral" and many staff are ready to resign. Comments dcmurungu:

if there are a lot of resignations (I doubt it given the golden handcuffs most of the Bank staff are happy to be in), then at least it will make Wolfowitz’s job of cutting the bureaucracy a little easier...
Why oh why do we have an aid organisation taking more care of itself than of the people it is supposed to help? It should feel like a funeral.
There are other dismayed at the arrival of Wolfowitz. The Guardian notes:

Some worry that his strong emphasis on human rights may complicate relations with China.
Now I worry why some on the left, who are supposed to be on the side of human rights, are worrying about a president who emphasises human rights. But I don’t worry about complicated relations between the World Bank and China. China will develop with foreign investment and by opening up it’s economy, whatever it’s relationship with the World Bank. It would be a good thing if aid would only be given if China also made some democratic reforms. Let the World Bank concentrate on that.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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19/03/2005
Murder! Insanity! Death!

Tim Wu wonders:

In the United States, possession and distribution of marijuana is nominally illegal. But you don’t have to be Tommy Chong to know that pot’s legal status is cloudy and confused. Growing and using "medical" marijuana is legal in 11 states, and in cities like San Francisco it’s easy enough to find locally grown product. In addition to being inconsistent, as critics have long pointed out, the federal ban is also irrational. It treats marijuana differently than similar products for no obvious reason. People use prescription drugs, pot, and alcohol for the same purposes: to get high, relax, and dull pain. The consequences of abuse are similar: crashed cars, disease, and lots of wasted time. So, what makes marijuana special?
Part of the answer: because the government says it is special. As a good marketeer government will of course say that it wants to protect the peoples health, or it wants to protect public morals. But when you think about it, as Tim Wu, it is easy to see that it just can’t be true. The possible damage to the health of the people does not make marijuana a special case. On the contrary, there is evidence that marijuana can help, for instance to relieve pain. So something else is going on. Special interests i think can provide a better answer. Special interests always want the protection of the government. And they often get it. Luckily we have an international organisation that can break the power of special interests and in this way help the consumer. It even can help the health of the people by making health policy in general a little bit more consistent and rational. But do read Tim Wu.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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18/03/2005
Wolfowitz made my day...

It seems he has an Arab feminist girlfriend, already working at the Worldbank. Wolfowitz is no neoconservative, he’s a radical. More here. And here a piece from Wolfie’s girlfriend for The Washington Post. Unsurprisingly, it’s about Middle East democracy.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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17/03/2005
Huh?

What’s this all about?

In the weeks after Baghdad fell in April 2003, looters systematically dismantled and removed tons of machinery from Saddam Hussein’s most important weapons installations, including some with high-precision equipment capable of making parts for nuclear arms, a senior Iraqi official said this week in the government’s first extensive comments on the looting. (...) The threat posed by these types of facilities was cited by the Bush administration as a reason for invading Iraq, but the installations were left largely unguarded by allied forces in the chaotic months after the invasion. (...) The threat posed by these types of facilities was cited by the Bush administration as a reason for invading Iraq, but the installations were left largely unguarded by allied forces in the chaotic months after the invasion. (...) The United Nations, worried that the material could be used in clandestine bomb production, has been hunting for it, largely unsuccessfully, across the Middle East. In one case, investigators searching through scrap yards in Jordan last June found specialized vats for highly corrosive chemicals that had been tagged and monitored as part of the international effort to keep watch on the Iraqi arms program. The vessels could be used for harmless industrial processes or for making chemical weapons.
Do I read this right? "high-precision equimpent capable of making parts for nuclear arms", "equipment capable of making parts for missiles as well as chemical, biological and nuclear arms", "vats for highly corrosive chemicals"...all this appeared to be present in Iraq at the time of the war and was "looted" afterwards. Now can anyone tell me why i should not consider this as evidence that there were WMD in Iraq or at least lot’s of material to make WMD? The Times notes that "these types of facilities was cited by the Bush administration as a reason for invading Iraq". So was the Bush administration right after all? And where are those weapons to be now?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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17/03/2005
Hope in Iraq

Despite the violence and thanks to the elections, Iraqi’s are increasingly hopefull according to this opinion poll:

An International Republican Institute poll conducted from February 27 to March 5, 2005 shows that a majority of Iraqis are optimistic about the direction of their country and hopeful for their future. Results also show a majority of Iraqis feel the January 30 election was fair and impartial and that the Transitional National Assembly (TNA) will represent the Iraqi people as a whole. To view a complete poll presentation click on the link below. "The optimism of the Iraqi people continues to grow as they move forward in building a democratic Iraq," said Lorne Craner, president of IRI. "The increased optimism in Iraq is a clear result of the country’s successful January 30 election." The new survey revealed that 61.5 percent of Iraqis believe that their country is headed in the right direction compared to only 23.2 percent who feel Iraq is headed in the wrong direction. The nearly 40 point margin between right direction and wrong direction is the largest since IRI began polling in May 2004, and this margin is more than double what it was in the poll taken from January 13 to 25, 2005. The current poll further shows that more than 90 percent of Iraqis feel hopeful for their future. Looking ahead to the constitutional process, more than 56 percent of Iraqis know that the TNA will be responsible for writing a permanent constitution. This number is up from 32.9 percent in the November 24 to December 5, 2004 poll. An additional 52.6 percent understood that the constitution drafted by the TNA will have to be approved by national referendum later in the year.


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17/03/2005
Go ahead Wolfie, make my day!

I would rather see him as the head of the World Trade Organization unilaterally imposing free trade policies on all it’s members like he tried to do with democracy, but i’ll take this as a second best.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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15/03/2005
Incredible

This is just incredible:

Nearly two million people from different regions of Lebanon have gathered in the capital Beirut for protests organized by the opposition party. Members of the press located in the protest region have reported that the protestors are arriving in Beirut by car, ship, and even on foot in preparation for the largest meeting since the assassination of the former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri on February 14. A traffic jam was reported between the north and the Damascus highways where cars were bumper to bumper, and rally goers arriving in Beirut were demanding an explanation for Hariri’s murder and for the withdrawal of the Syrian troops.
Ok, two million seems to be the maximum number, but even when you take one million or 800.000 we are talking about a quarter to half of the total population of 3,8 million. That’s democracy for you: poeple coming out in big numers to peacfully protest an occupation. Compare this with the violent "resistance" in Iraq, which is increasingly targeted against the Iraqi population itself instead of the Americans. And which is fueled by the way mostly by foreigners (Zarqawi is a Jordanian) and foreign regimes.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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10/03/2005
Simon sez

Simon sez:

Ask someone if they prefer cheaper clothes prices for the same quality product and the answer is obvious. Likewise the manufacturer who can produce the clothes at a cheaper price but still turn a profit. Especially happy should be the Governments of the manufacturing nation (all those extras jobs) and the consuming nations (all those happy voters/consumers). Alas, not always.
At the moment, in textiles, it’s "alas, almost never". Consumers are not happy because anti-globalization activists try to convince consumers that those products are cheap because workers are exploited, and so by bying those products we rich Western consumers are profiting from the exploitation of poor Chinese workers. They forget telling that if we don’t buy those cheap products those workers would be out of a job, that their wages are rising and that textile goods are cheap mainly because of high productivity.

Chinese workers are not happy because the Chinese government is afraid of Western protectionism and so is prepared the cut down exports voluntarily. As a result output growth will slow. With rising productivity, this will mean more jobs lost.

Governments are not happy. No extra jobs in China, and no happy consumers/voters over here.

Relatively happy are Western and Chinese textile executives: any profits coming from textile protectionism will go into their pockets.

Why not try to make more people happy and do what Simon sez? Besides did you know that we already bought most textile products from China but we didn’t know? Simon sez (or rather quotes) something more:

Some industry executives, however, disputed that much had changed. They argue that with the scrapping of quota controls, firms that once disguised their China-made goods as Hong Kong, Macau or Taiwan exports are simply reporting the real country of origin.

"A large part of this increase is just a switch from declared `Hong Kong origin’ to `China origin’, rather than an actual increase in China manufacturing," said one French textile trader. "China quotas used to be more expensive than Hong Kong quotas, so people used Hong Kong quotas for goods made in China. What you see is just the reality that used to be the case for many years." As evidence, the trader argues that mainland logistics firms have not seen any large rises in textile shipments from China in recent months.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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10/03/2005
On the whole, it was a good half century for mankind...

AdamSmithee quotes Richard Cooper:

relative to expectations... the world economy performed outstandingly well during the second half of the 20th century. Worldwide growth in average per capita income exceeded two percent a year (historically unprecedented), many poor countries became rich, infant mortality declined, diets improved, longevity increased, diseases were contained if not vanquished. Poverty on the World Bank definition of $1 a day (in 1985$) declined dramatically, and the number of persons in poverty was halved despite a more than doubling of the world population... Civil and political liberties also spread during this period, although less certainly and less securely. On the whole, it was a good half century for mankind.
Sustain this and there is sustainable development for you. How? Well, maybe spreading capitalism further may do the trick.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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9/03/2005
Conspiracy or accident?

Marc Cooper doubts that the Americans wanted to assassinate Italian journalist Giuliana Sgrena. He writes:

From first-hand reports, it seems that American roadblocks in Iraq are dangerous enough (to all sides) without any need to imagine that the U.S. high command was ordering hits on journalists from one of the administration’s most loyal European allies. Annia Ciezadlo, the Baghdad correspondent for the Christian Science Monitor offers a hair-raising account of what it’s like to pass through those U.S. checkpoints. (...) She goes on to say that an untold number of people are, indeed, shot to death at these places. And that the trauma extends to the U.S. troops who are doing the shooting. Given the prevalence of car-bombs and drive-by attacks, they view every approaching vehicle as a potential mass murder weapon. As I said, the war – as is—is gruesome enough without need to invent conspiracies.
I would also point out that it would be convenient for anti-war types to use this "accident" to drive a wedge between the U.S. and the Italian government, which still is one of America’s staunches allies.

UPDATE

Sgrena denies having said that the Americans wanted to kill here. It seems now that the U.S. soldiers wanted to protect U.S. ambassador John Negroponte.

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8/03/2005
Who profits from Chinese growth?

Who benefits from China’s economic growth? In the first place, Africa:

We know of the country’s huge appetite for natural resources. It accounts for up to a quarter of worldwide demand for copper, aluminium, tin and zinc. Steel producers, accustomed to weak demand in the West, have been enjoying a bonanza thanks to Chinese demand. A third of the increase in oil demand last year came from China, helping to drive up oil prices. What is less commented on is the effect of this demand on the global distribution of income. Gerard Lyons, chief economist of Standard Chartered, described China in recent evidence to the Commons Treasury committee as a “Robin Hood economy”, boosting commodity-producing economies, not least those in Africa. Trade between China and Africa is growing rapidly, to the point where it is much more important to the continent’s prosperity than Brown’s poverty-relief efforts.
Trade, not aid is doing the trick. Of course considering the regimes of those commodity-producing economies it’s not sure that it are really the poor people who will profit from China’s growth.

Second, Japan and South-East Asia:

large part of Japan’s recent economic success is attributable to its role in supplying the Chinese leviathan with capital and other equipment. Asia’s emergence from the economic and financial crisis of the late 1990s has much to do with trade with China. China has a large and rising trade surplus with America but a deficit with the rest of Asia.
I would add the United States, especially consumers profiting from low prices and multinational companies like Wal-Mart (and third the U.S. government financing it’s government deficit cheaply with Chinese capital, but it’s doubtfull this will be beneficial for the U.S. and the world in the long run.)
Considering this all, i think it’s vital for the worlds poor that Chinese growth can be sustained in the future, because this could mean that globalization will be working for many other poor countries than just China or India.

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7/03/2005
Good news from Afghanistan?

It seems that the Taliban is becoming a bad memory:

Fugitive Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar has lost control of the insurgency in Afghanistan and the number of attacks has fallen dramatically, a senior U.S. general said Monday. Taliban spokesmen have said attacks will resume once the harsh Afghan winter is over. But Major General Eric T. Olson told a news conference in Kabul that the Taliban lacked cohesion and were a fading force in the southern and southeast provinces that had been their strongholds. "We believe that this spring there will be a number of factors combined to make this so-called spring offensive much less effective and much lesser scale than we’ve seen in the past in Afghanistan," said Olson.


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6/03/2005
Ten reasons for choosing a flat tax

I thought to provide some support for those countries in Eastern Europe (Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia...) defying old Europe countries like France admonishing them to stop competing on taxes. From Adam Smith:

1. The flat tax eliminates double taxation on savings and investments. Since all forms of income are taxed once and only once, people are free to choose whichever investment maximizes their profits. Without any government restrictions on certain types of investments, the economy is able to reach its full potential.
2. The flat tax increases government revenue. As a result of a more dynamic economy and less tax evasion, the government actually collects higher revenue. As shown by Laffer’s analysis and by the history of tax cuts in both the USA and the UK, lower tax rates engender a substantial economic boom.
3. The flat tax considerably reduces the time and cost of completing tax forms. With tax forms down to the size of a postcard, the flat tax system makes tax filling much simpler and more efficient. Taxpayers save the money they currently pay for financial advice and guidance, while fiscal specialists are able to switch to more productive forms of economic activity.
4. The flat tax ends special interest lobbying, which is responsible for the growing complexity of the tax regime. Not only is the progressive fiscal system unnecessarily complex, but it also tends to become more and more complicated every year. By eliminating all reliefs and allowances, the flat tax gets rid of all tax lobbyists who try to get new loopholes in the system for the benefit of their businesses.
5. The flat tax exempts the poor from paying any tax by providing a generous tax-free allowance. Due to the generous personal allowance, a large proportion of low-earning individuals pay no tax at all. The personal allowance also makes the tax system progressive for people with average incomes. Only rich people, for whom the allowance represent a minor part of income, pay a rate very close to the flat rate.
6. The flat tax offers individuals more control over their money and reduces government infringements on privacy. Instead of letting the government design biased policies and programmes, people are left with more money to take care of their needs. With diminished government involvement, each person takes individual decisions regarding their pension plans, their mortgage payment, and their charitable giving, none of which is taxdeductible.
7. The flat tax reduces interest rates as a result of the tax-free status of interest. Without an interest tax, lenders are satisfied with lower payments. Overall lower interest rates coupled with advantageous first year 100 percent writeoffs favour entrepreneurial activity and increased capital formation.
8. The flat tax reduces tax evasion, by lowering the opportunity cost of avoiding taxes. People are more willing to pay the correct tax burden when the tax is lowered. Under a flat tax, individuals are less willing to cheat and risk being interrogated by fiscal authorities. Also, the government spends less money on monitoring and auditing a simpler fiscal system.
9. The flat tax makes the British fiscal system more attractive to foreign investment. In a global economy in which investors freely move across country borders, a simple fiscal system attracts global businesses. In turn, foreign investments further boost an economy with a simple, efficient fiscal system.
10. The flat tax achieves simplicity, economic efficiency, and fairness. These are the traditional measures of effective taxation. Evidence from countries that have gone through major fiscal reforms confirms which the flat tax is a viable alternative.
The flat tax idea originated in the U.S. That old Europe doesn’t like the idea i can understand. But i wonder why the U.S. hasn’t took more steps in the direction of a flat tax. I guess that point four has something to do with it. One cannot take it for granted that even a government ideologically inclined towards a flat tax can overcome special interests in this regard. One cannot even assume that it really wants to.

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6/03/2005
Ten ways to live longer

From Forbes:

1. Don’t oversleep: six to seven hours a night is enough
2. Be optimistic
3. Have more sex
4. Get a pet
5. Get a VAP
6. Be rich
7. Stop smoking
8. Chill out
9. Eat antioxidants
10. Marry well

Oh well, i’m not a very good sleeper so that’s allright then. I’m optimistic about having more sex and becoming rich. I don’t smoke, take lot’s of vitamin and don’t get angry much. And i’m definitely going to take that cat in house now. But marry? Unlikely, even if I wanted to (hint, hint!).

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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6/03/2005
Quote of the day

Mario Vargas Llosa:

In recent years, this liberal who speaks before you today has frequently been entangled in controversy because he defended a real image of the United States, which passions and political prejudice have occasionally deformed to the point of caricature. The problem those of us who try to combat these stereotypes face is that no country produces as much anti-U.S. artistic and intellectual material as the United States itself--the native country, let us not forget, of Michael Moore, Oliver Stone and Noam Chomsky--to the extent that one must wonder if anti-Americanism is not one of those exquisite export products manufactured by the CIA to enable imperialism to ideologically manipulate the Third World masses.

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5/03/2005
Tom Maguire and the good prof.

Tom Maguire wishes Paul Krugman a happy anniversary. But i imagine this great economist/partisan hack will not be amused with it, nor with this.

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2/03/2005
The benefits of trade

Daniel Drezner summerizes a chapter from this book, showing the past and future benefits of the expansion of trade. They are huuuuuuuge:

Using different methods of estimation, they estimate that the cumulative payoff from trade liberalization since the end of the Second World War ranges between $800 billion to $1.45 trillion dollars per year in added output. This translates into an added per capita benefit of between $2,800 and $5,000—or, more concretely, an addition of somewhere between $7,100 and $12,900 per American household. As for the future, the gains from future trade expansion have been estimated to range between an additional $450 billion and $1.3 trillion per year in additional national income—which would increase per capita income between $1,500 and $2,000 on an annual basis. The fact is, there are few policies in the U.S. government’s tool kit that consistently yield rewards of this magnitude.
So why not pursue those polices then?

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1/03/2005
Oh yes, Regime Change!

Left-wing Bush critic Marc Cooper observes:

Oh yes, Regime Change! In the upside-down world we now inhabit, that slogan was once the sole property of an internationalist, democratic Left. We can only blame ourselves for ceding such an exhilarating concept to the Neocons. No matter. Regime change it is in Lebanon, it seems. And if the popular tide continues rising, it could wash right into Damascus and sweep the murderous Assad clan from its perch. (...)The outbreak of pro-Democracy movements on the fabled “arab street” can only be cause for celebration and optimism. How about, now, an Arab woman as the next Prime Minister of a liberated Lebanon?


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1/03/2005
Reality versus the reality-based community

Hey reality-based community, here is some reality for you:

1) Iraqis stood up, en masse (with the Sunni angle not as grim as some have portrayed) against fascistic terror tactics and turned out in numbers that surpassed all but the most optimistic prognostications--in what proved a moving and historic event that loudly showcased a key yearning of the modern era--namely, to have one’s voice heard through democratic governance structures;

2) The Arab world watched this historic election with real fascination and intrigue, and it is probably fair to say it proved a significant strategic blow to the prestige of the insurgents (though they remain resilient and capable of mass carnage as today’s massive suicide bomb showed);

3) Bush’s increasingly direct admonishments to Egypt to further democratize communicated both in his SOTU and by his representatives from diplomats on the ground in Cairo to Secretary Rice is evidently bearing some fruit (yes, with details to be worked out about how real Mubarak’s moves will be--but most analysts appear to see rather important reformist moves in the works);

4) Syria, where I think it’s fair to say our relationship is at somewhat of a crossroads, has basically agreed to withdraw all its troops in Lebanon to the Bekaa Valley and has started turning over big Iraqi Baathist fish to the Americans (it’s gettin’ crunchtime for Bashar, and he is starting to belatedly really get that, it would seem);

5) The Cedar Revolution is filling the streets of Beirut showing the Arab world that, indeed, Bush was right to say Syria was ’out of step’ in a region that is, yes, becoming somewhat intoxicated with these first blushes of real democratization from Baghdad to Beirut;

6) Constructive initiatives are underway vis-a-vis the poisonous Israeli-Palestinian dispute, with Bush having pledged over USD 300MM to the PA, and Sharon and Mazen still doing business post the Islamic Jihad bombing;

7) Saudi Arabia, as Dan Drezner has noted, is making some reformist strides (also reacting to Bush’s prodding in his SOTU and a robust dialogue via our Embassy in Riyadh and elsewhere);

8) Condi Rice is to spearhead a revitalized public diplomacy effort as she indicated in her Senate confirmation hearings--doubtless helping better explain our intentions in the region (and no, they’re not about perma bases in Mesopotamia, helping Zionists take over the Tigris and Euphrates, or making oil grabs in Iraq and Iran) and such a PD initiative will doubtless, in part, thematically link inter-connected developments like the Iraq elections, the civic unrest in Beirut, the reformist resentiment in Cairo;

9) Afghanistan continues to make forward progress towards democratization and greater stability as do other countries in the broader region like Bahrain; and

10) Bush looks to have wisely deemphasized a short-term military option on Iran and is looking to swing Pollack-Takeyh on Iran policy in greater coordination with the Europeans.


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1/03/2005
Talking about reality

How realistic are the Millennium Development goals? Concerning Africa they seem to be very unrealistic. According to this IMF Working Paper sub-Saharan African countries will have to grow at least 4,5% a year (per capita) to reduce poverty from 47% in 2001 to 22% in 2015. But per capita growth was zero in the period 1990-2000 and negative in the decade before....

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1/03/2005
The Arab street wants freedom, not jihad

Hitchens does it again:

The London-based newspaper Al Quds al-Arabi, which has for some time been a surrogate voice for "insurgent" talk in the Arab diaspora, polled its readers after the Iraqi elections and had the grace to print the result. About 90 percent had been favorably impressed by the sight of Iraqi and Kurdish voters waiting their turn to have a say in their own future. This is a somewhat more accurate use of the demotic thermometer than the promiscuous one to which we have let ourselves become accustomed. Meanwhile, the streets of, say, Beirut have been filled with demonstrators who are entirely fed up with having their lives and opinions taken for granted by parasitic oligarchies. Of course, every now and then one still reads polls, conducted by who knows what measurement, that appear to state the contrary. For some reason, the Pew Center seems especially keen on publicizing these sorts of mass-opinion finding. You’ve seen them: Nine out of 10 Moroccan teenagers have a poster of Osama Bin Laden on their bedroom walls and so forth. Yet these findings don’t seem to translate into anything much: The Muslim population with the closest experience of Bin Laden was the Afghan one, and the Afghan street, to judge by all available evidence, rejected him and ignored his threats in crushing and overwhelming numbers. In the Palestinian elections, boycotted by the Islamists, a fairly solid turnout split the votes between Mahmoud Abbas and Mustapha Barghouti, the latter of whom scored an impressive 20 percent or so for a secular program. Where Hamas has done well in local elections in Gaza, it has been due to grass-roots welfare and social policy as much as to intransigent anti-Zionism, and it’s possible to imagine the organization evolving, as has Hezbollah in Lebanon, into a quasi-political party with seats in the assembly. The logic of this, all rhetoric to one side, points largely in one direction. Other Muslim streets are even more problematic for those who lazily assume that the jihadists are the voice of the unheard. The populations of Bosnia and Kosovo—populations that actually did have to confront anti-Muslim violence on a large scale—are generally hostile to Bin-Ladenism. Nobody has ever used the term "Iranian street," at least in print or on broadcast news, if only because everyone knows that Iranian opinion, as registered during the mock elections or voiced to visiting hacks, is strongly against the reigning theocracy.


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1/03/2005
The Berlin wall falls again?

Daniel Drezner notes the parallel between what happened in Eastern-Europe in 1989 and what’s happening now in the Middle-East:

The collapse of communism in Eastern Europe happened after reformists first attained power through elections in Poland and Hungary. It happened rapidly, with no one comprehending the speed with which the old, corrupt edifices of power crumbled. Could the example of elections in one Muslim country in the Middle East have a similar ripple effect?
If this parallel turns out to be correct (granted, a big if), we could have reason to be rather optimistic for the prospects in the Middle-East. Of course in the transition the new regimes in Eastern Europe made many mistakes and our advice to them was not always sound, to say the least. And so many mistakes will be made in the Middle-East also. As Drezner points out, it will be two steps forward, one step backwards. But this should not stop us from continuing to make the case for democracy.

There is another parallel here. The fall of communism and the rise of democracy was pushed by and came under the watch unpopular Republican adminstrations that of Bush Sr. and that of Ronald Reagan. Unpopular that is in Europe, old Europe. The second coming of democracy, this time in the Middle-East, is happening under another wildly unpopular Republican administration. That of G.W. Bush. Unpopular that is in Europe, old Europe. But it seems that these days the real conservatives are to be found in Europe. It is they who always seem to be behind the facts. In America they have a counterpart, arrogantly calling themselves the "reality-based community". But, as Tom Maguire explains, the Berlin Wall was a reality until it wasn’t. Don’t expect the reality-based community to have learned that lesson.

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28/02/2005
A defence of Wal-Mart

By Wal-Mart. Bottom line: it saves consumers money, especially low-income consumers. And because retailing is a labor intensive business the major way to save consumers money is by keeping wages down. Still with relatively low wages and apparently rather harsh working conditions many want to work at Wal-Mart. That’s because Wal-Mart compensates the low wages with high growth opportunities. But let’s turn the mike over to Lee Scott, President of Wal-Mart Los Angeles:

Let’s start with two fundamental truths about Wal-Mart. First, our success comes from delivering quality merchandise at everyday low prices in ways that raise the standard of living of the millions of Americans who shop in our stores each year. Independent analysis says that nationally we save consumers upwards of $100 billion a year; in Southern California it has been estimated that, if given the chance, we’ll save the average family nearly $600 a year at the grocery checkout alone. These savings are a lifeline for millions of middle and lower- income families who live from payday to payday; in effect, it gives them a raise every time they shop with us. Seen another way, Wal-Mart acts as a bargaining agent for these families -- achieving on their behalf a “negotiating power” they would never have on their own. Need some examples? $1.86 may not sound like much to you, but at Wal-Mart, it buys a family two loaves of bread instead of one. $37 doesn’t sound like much money – yet at Wal-Mart, it will get a family a darned good DVD player. Multiply such examples a thousandfold and you begin to see how Wal-Mart harnesses the collective clout of ordinary Americans to make their lives better.
(...)
Wal-Mart’s average wage is around $10 an hour, nearly double the federal minimum wage. The truth is that our wages are competitive with comparable retailers in each of the more than 3,500 communities we serve, with one exception -- a handful of urban markets with unionized grocery workers. This is only common sense. If Wal-Mart weren’t an attractive place to work, we wouldn’t find ourselves, as we typically do, with thousands of applications for the hundreds of jobs we create when we open a new store. Nor would so many of our associates urge their friends and relatives to join us. In addition, the growth opportunities we offer our associates and suppliers are unparalleled. Seventy-six percent of our store management started their careers with Wal-Mart in hourly positions; every year thousands of hourly associates are promoted into management and most of these jobs do not require a college degree. Of course, it’s not just our associates. Countless suppliers have also grown with us over the years, turning hundreds of small businesses into remarkable entrepreneurial success stories. Let’s talk now about benefits. Few people realize that about 74 percent of Wal-Mart hourly store associates work full-time, compared to 20 to 40 percent at comparable retailers. This means Wal-Mart spends more broadly on health benefits than do most big retailers, whose part-timers typically are not offered health insurance. You may not be aware that we are one of the few retail firms that offer health benefits to part-timers. Premiums begin at less than $40 a month for an individual and less than $155 per month for a family. And unlike coverage at many companies, our health plan has no lifetime maximum after the first year, meaning that if serious illness strikes, our associates don’t need to add financial worries to their concerns for their loved one.
(...)
Retail sector wages have been about 25 percent lower than economy-wide wages for the last 15 years and this gap is at least as large in other advanced nations. Auto wages, by contrast, have been 40 to 50 percent higher than economy-wide wages. What explains these longtime realities? Economists will tell you they are driven NOT by the presence or absence of unions, but by the underlying nature of the business. Auto manufacturing is a highly capital intensive industry, where enormous sums are invested in machines and technology that make the output per worker very high. Retailing is the opposite. While we at Wal-Mart pride ourselves on our cutting-edge technology, retailing remains a very labor intensive business. A single Ford worker might operate dozens of computer-controlled robots that assemble a car. In a Wal-Mart store, hundreds of associates are helping customers find what they need and check out fast. Due to these differences in the nature of the business, sales and profit per employee – which go far to explain what levels of wages are sustainable in any business -- are much lower in retail than in automaking. It is true that our customers have now made Wal-Mart one of the biggest companies in America, and we’re proud of what that says about the way we serve them. But here’s the point: whether we have 30 stores or 3,000 stores, this is still retail. If you’re with me on why retailing can’t be expected to perform the same function in the economy as GM, let’s move on to the related myth that Wal-Mart is somehow “driving down” the quality of U.S. jobs. The truth is more nearly the opposite: Wal-Mart has dramatically upgraded the nature of retail work in America.


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28/02/2005
Lebanon: the Ukraine of the Middle-East?

Another democratic revolution seems to be on it’s way. This time it’s Lebanon. Daniel Berczik has the goods. More here. A short while ago Ukraine threw off the Russian yoke. Is Lebanon doing the same with Syria?

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27/02/2005
Wow

Wow.

Taiwanese factories in Dongguan [a city between Hong Kong and Guangzhou and a major centre of manufacturing] are facing a problem. According to a news report in the United Daily in Taiwan, over a thousand workers at a factory, which produces goods for big brand names such as Nike, demonstrated for two days and damaged equipment and factory cars. 500 armed police arrived and quashed the riot. Several leaders were arrested. The main cause for the riot was the limitation on working hours at the factory. The shorter hours have been requested by US companies so as to avoid criticism from various groups on long working hours. However, the mainly migrant workforce want to work longer hours so they can earn more. Consensus had been reached by the US companies, the Taiwanese-invested factory and local government that the maximum working hours per week should be set at 60 hours [which is still a breach of Chinese Labour Law, but less than other manufacturing plants]. However, this reduction in hours was unsatisfactory for the workers and the resulting riot was serious.


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27/02/2005
Bush - Putin : 1 - 0

Bush makes Putin loose his smile:

President George Bush subjected Russia’s Vladimir Putin to a public lecture on the fundamentals of democracy yesterday, injecting a chill into a relationship that has - until now - been characterised by bonhomie.
Quite good was that he stressed the universal values underpinning democracy:

"Democracies always reflect a country’s customs and culture, and I know that," Mr Bush said. "Yet democracies have certain things in common; they have a rule of law, and protection of minorities, a free press, and a viable political opposition."
And aren’t all those common and universal things lacking in Russia? Putin’s nerviousness is understandable. And Bush’s stance admirable.
(Hat tip: Guy)

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27/02/2005
Doubts about wind power

O-oh. It seems that another green pet project is going down the drain: wind power. No that’s not completely right. I mean wind power is still going down the drain. But i’m doubting more and more that it really is a pet project of the Greens. In Britain for instance it are environmentalists like James Lovelock that oppose wind power (however Greenpeace supports it, unsurprisingly, looking at the costs is not their forté). And in Belgium wind farms are pushed down our throats by the socialists and not so much by the Greens. But now there is some bad news coming their way, and it’s coming from Germany, the largest producer of wind power in the world:

Wind farms are an expensive and inefficient way of generating sustainable energy, according to a study from Germany, the world’s leading producer of wind energy. The report, which may have ramifications for the UK’s rapidly growing wind farm industry, concludes that instead of spending billions on building new wind turbines, the emphasis should be on making houses more energy efficient. Drawn up by the German government’s energy agency, it says that wind farms prove a costly form of reducing greenhouse gases.
It seems that the largest producers of wind energy, countries like Germany and Denmark, are increasingly unhappy with it.
(Via Tim Worstall)

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27/02/2005
Di Rupo en Janssens: 1 strijd

Voor één keer ben ik het eens met Elio Di Rupo. Er moet een referendum komen over het voortbestaan van België. Kan ik voor de splitsing stemmen. Vive la republique flamande!

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26/02/2005
Kick your government into resposible behaviour

Immoral government:

Europe supports its sugar producers with an astounding tariff of 300% while also dumping 5 million tons a year on world markets at knockdown prices. Without such a gargantuanly uneconomic — and immoral — subsidy European farmers wouldn’t find it profitable to grow sugar beet. Guess who would then be able to grow it instead?
I want a system were I, as a taxpayer, can say: fuck off, i don’t want to be part of this scheme to rob the poor. I don’t want to pay taxes that government can use to give support to the already wealthy. I want to have the right to refuse paying taxes if those taxes are used to do things I don’t like. I want to have the right to say to the government: use my money in a more resposible/moral/efficiënt way or get lost!

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26/02/2005
Creative destruction

The demise of a particular industry is not always bad. Sometimes it’s better to let an industry die and to move on. That’s creative destruction. Of course the industry itself does not like that. Unions and employers alike will push government into intervention, for instance by taking protectionist measures. The industry is saved, at least for the time being (although even then job loss often occurs). But the cost of this kind of policies can be high. Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey points to an example:

One of my professors cited a statistic that the cost of protecting US textile jobs is $18,000 per worker per year to US consumers. It would be cheaper to just pay to retrain all US textile workers and support them for a few years of transition than to keep protecting their jobs.
Like i said sometimes it is better to let an industry die, and much cheaper for the rest of the economy (and with the right kind of policies that let the free market work, probably even better also for the workers involved).

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26/02/2005
Humor

Tijd voor wat humor. Deze vond ik toch wel een goeie. Wat is het URL-adres van de Belgische duivenbond?

www.duivenbond.comcomcomcom

(Via De Pappenheimers)

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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26/02/2005
Money and happines

Does wealth make you happier? Tyler Cowen is writing a book about this matter, and while thinking and writing about it, he appears to be inclined to answer that question with a yes. Here an excerpt from the book. Well worth a read: it could make you happier (at least it made me happy, because i do think that we should keep focusing on economic growth - via growth of productivity, because that leads to higher wages and more leisure - and all the rest, or at least much of all the rest, will follow, even happines.)

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26/02/2005
A politically incorrect view

A view born out of envy, but not wrong:

If you are concerned about poverty, you should admire corporations that go to labor-abundant countries. Contrary to popular perceptions, multinational corporations actually pay wages that are significantly higher than those paid by local firms employing similar workers. The multinational jobs have been among the most coveted jobs in developing countries. Even while growing up in India, I remember looking with envy at those employed with Pan Am, IBM and Coca-Cola. Students on campus have their hearts in the right place when they show concern about the exploitation of sweatshop workers in the poor countries. But they must dig deeper. They must ask why the workers in Calcutta are lining up for jobs with the multinationals before they begin demanding an end to the exploitation.
Think about this before you want to cut multinationals down to size.
(Via Jonathan Dingle)

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26/02/2005
Democracy in the world: some preliminary results

In his speech earlier this week, G.W. Bush implored U.S. allies Egypt and Saudi-Arabië to start with democratic reforms. Well, surprisingly or not, some of the results are coming in. In Egypt:

Mubarak said he asked parliament and the Shura Council to amend Article 76 of the constitution, which deals with presidential elections. Mohammed Kamal, a leading member of the ruling party’s policy-making committee, said parliament would propose its amendment within two weeks. Mubarak said the amendment would then be put to a public referendum before the presidential polls, which are scheduled for September. Kamal said he expected the referendum to be held within nine weeks. As recently as last month Mubarak had rejected opposition demands to open presidential balloting to other candidates, and he was obviously aware of the historic potential of his announcement. There is even movement in Saudi-Arabia:

(...)the Saudi regime does seem to be moving forward -- however slowly -- in altering their behavior in constructive ways. Again, it’s maddeningly slow, but progress nevertheless. So it indeed is all very preliminary, but a few years ago there were no reforms whatsoever...for decades. Now there is. Bush is having an impact, and it’s hard to see it in a negative way. Keep up the good work, and Russia is next.

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25/02/2005
The benefits of defining property righs

The 2005 Economic Report of the President gives a nice overview about the benefits of defining property rights in adressing important policy goals like clean air, good education and efficiënt development aid. A striking example of the succes of property rights concerns the struggle against overfishing. Striking because as an official of the New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture said: "It’s the first group of fishers I’ve ever encountered who turned down the chance to take more fish." (Maybe we could get a similar result in carbon dioxide emissions...)

A property rights approach to fisheries management can effectively prevent overfishing while increasing the profits of fishermen. One such system is to issue individual transferable quotas (ITQs) to fishermen, which grant them exclusive rights to harvest fixed percentages of the total allowable catch. (While ITQs may be considered to create property rights, they are not “property interests” for purposes of the takings clause of the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution.) Like pollution permits, ITQs are transferable, ensuring that the fish will be caught by the most efficient and least wasteful boats, while all owners of a fishery can reap the benefits of a healthy and profitable fish stock. Unlike command-and-control approaches, ITQ programs end the incentive for fishermen to “race to fish.” This observation is well demonstrated by Alaska’s sablefish and halibut fisheries where, prior to the introduction of property rights, the fishing season was progressively shortened to prevent the annual catch from exceeding its cap. Fishermen responded to the shortened season by increasing the number of vessels in their fleets and using more gear in an all-out effort to catch as much as possible before the overall cap was reached. These “frantic derbies” led fishermen to take undue risks by heading out in dangerous weather, and led to a glut of fresh fish on the market during the few short weeks of harvest and scarcity the rest of the year. Alaska’s halibut and sablefish ITQ programs, implemented in 1995, ended the race for fish and increased season length from less than 5 days per year to 245 days per year. Commercial fishermen have since enjoyed increased profits, decreased costs of gear and fishing crews, and a safer and more stable industry. The availability of high-quality halibut year-round has benefited consumers, and environmental benefits have been realized in connection with decreased halibut mortality. ITQs have also been adopted in New Zealand, Iceland, Australia, Canada, and Papua New Guinea, among other countries. They have improved fish stocks while also increasing the profitability of many fisheries. New Zealand’s extensive system of ITQs was introduced in 1986 and, as of 1996, it accounted for more than 85 percent of that country’s total commercial catch. New Zealand fish stocks are now healthy, and increases in quota prices provide evidence of increased profitability. There is evidence that New Zealand’s ITQs have also encouraged investment in scientific research.
Now of course if it works here, why wouldn’t it work with, say, private accounts in social security?

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22/02/2005
Bush in Babylon: good for the environment

One of the biggest real environmental disasters happened just a few years ago. It happened in Iraq, under the spell of Saddam. Now, thanks to regime change, some of the damage done is being reversed:

One of the world’s greatest marshland habitats - and home of an ancient culture - is beginning to show the first signs of recovery after decades of systematic destruction under Saddam Hussein. An international scientific assessment of Iraq’s drained wetlands, the first since they were partially reflooded after the downfall of Saddam, has found that the giant reeds are growing once more and the water birds and otters are returning.
(Via Norman Geras)

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21/02/2005
Bush in Brussel

Een Palestijnse staat, vrede in het Midden-Oosten, democratische hervormingen in Rusland, Saudi-Arabië en Egypte (bondgenoten van de V.S.), investeren in milieu-vriendelijke technologieën om het milieu te beschermen...het boodschappenlijstje van Bush. Kunnen we allemaal toch achter staan. Of niet soms?

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21/02/2005
The problem with climate science

It has become too much of an industry, but with lower standards. Steve McIntyre explains. Here is more from the Wall Street Journal.

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19/02/2005
Debunking another myth

Dr. Peter Piot, director of the U.N. agency that battles AIDS, and thus an unsuspected source praises the U.S. and in particular G.W.Bush (in Dutch, thanks to Luc Van Braekel for the translation):

You know, in Europe they don’t like to hear it, but in fact we owe a lot to US president George W Bush. In his State of the Union of 2003, he promised 15 billion dollars to the fight against AIDS in developing countries. And what’s at least as important: he kept his promise and we received the money. The volume of the amount has completely changed our financial position. Before, at best we received a hundred million here and some millions there. When UNAids was established in 1994 we had an annual budget of 200 million dollar. Peanuts. Now we have 6.1 billion dollar each year. Bush imposes three conditions. First, the money must go to fifteen concentration countries: Botswana, Ivory Coast, Ethiopia, Tanzanya, Vietnam etc. All countries that are heavily affected by AIDS. Secondly, the largest part of the budget should go to treatment of already infected persons. For that, we have to use brand drugs, not the cheaper ’generic’ drugs, as they are called. As far as prevention is concerend, one third should go to programs that are promoting abstention from sex. Did you know that, for example, the US is the largest funder of condoms in developing countries? And don’t forget that there often is a difference between American rhetorics on sex-related subjects like AIDS, and what really happens on the grond. The neocon ideas that go around the world, are in fact intended for domestic use in the US. For Bush, it is a way to connect with the fundamentalists of the christian right. But in practice and on the ground, the impact of these views is relative. Moreover, it is not only the US that impose conditions on USAids. The Scandinavian countries are imposing conditions too. Sweden, Norway and Finland are heavily against the distribution of clean needles to drug addicts.
But isn’t Bush a Christian fundamentalist himself, a man who let’s his right-wing religious views influence his policies? But then how to explain all this? Maybe this isn’t true. Or maybe his religious views are not that right-wing after all? Whatever it may be, kudos to Peter Piot for telling the truth and debunking another left-wing myth about Bush. But i’m afraid Piot has it right all the way: they don’t like to hear it, and they won’t listen.

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19/02/2005
Paul Krugman needs some quality control...from his earlier version perhaps

Lawrence H. White on Paul Krugman:

A gem from Krugman’s latest column, guaranteed to bring a smile to those of us who teach economic history for a living:

In fact, by taking on Social Security, Mr. Bush gave the Democrats a chance to remember what they stand for, and why. Here’s my favorite version, from another fighting moderate, Eliot Spitzer: "As President Bush embraces the ownership society and tries to claim that he is the one that is making it possible for the middle class to succeed and save and invest - well, I say to myself, no, that’s not right; it is the Democratic Party historically that created the middle class."

I guess Krugman has learned the first rule of advocacy journalism: there’s no need to make an indefensible claim yourself when you can quote someone else doing it for you. I would have thought it was the Industrial Revolution that created the middle class, seeing as how countries without industrialization did not develop a middle class, no matter what kind of democratic politics prevailed. Do Krugman and Spitzer really believe that the US lacked a middle class before Franklin Roosevelt’s tax-and-transfer policies?
There are two problems with the Paul Krugman, columnist of the NYT. The lesser problem is his partisanship. If you know that you can take this in to account and that’s that. The bigger problem is that the standard of his articles is getting lower and lower...the Krugman of ten years ago would certainly not quote someone like Eliot Spitzer talking rubbish. He would ridicule him instead (if you don’t believe this, ask someone like Robert Reich).

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19/02/2005
Abolish cotton subsidies and help kill the drugs trade

Or how big government is the problem and limited government can be the solution. From kickAAS:

Listen to this. The Afghanistan government may be forced to give subsidies to farmers to persuade them not to grow opium. (poppies account for 60% of economic activity) and to grow wheat, rice and cotton instead. Farmers can’t compete with Western exports of these commodities because they are so highly subsidised. Hang on a minute. Wouldn’t it be simpler for the US, Japan and Europe to abolish their own subsidies (thereby returning money to taxpayers) rather than pricing Afghanistan’s agriculture out of the market?
kickAAS is an initiative of The Guardian, a left-wing newspaper. But Milton Friedman would be proud.

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19/02/2005
Huh?

The European Commission has a communication with the next subtitle:

Winning the Battle Against Global Climate Change
Now i can understand that you want to win the battle against global warming. I can understand that if you think that climate is changing too fast that you try to slow it down, and certainly i can understand trying to stop or diminish the human contribution, if any, to global warming. But trying to stop global climate change? Change in climate is the norm, it’s the way global climate works. It changes all the time, warming up, or cooling down. Change is natural. And now they want to win the battle against change that is natural and normal? Talk about human arrogance!

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17/02/2005
And pis on you too! (Bush in Brussel)

Animo, de jongerenafdeling van de socialistische partij, maakt er wel een zootje van. Maar onverwacht is hun campagne tegen de komst van de Amerikaanse president Bush wellicht niet. Ze gaan deelnemen aan een betoging tegen de komst van Bush en overal waar ze kunnen “pissen” op een portret van de Amerikaanse president. Erg smaakvol hoor. De redenen worden als volgt uitgelegd:

De regering van Bush is verantwoordelijk voor de inval in Afghanistan en de bezettingsoorlog in Irak. In eigen land voert deze regering een asociaal en ultrarechts beleid, getuige de laatste begroting waar de uitgaven voor alle departementen (de sociale zekerheid op kop) gehalveerd worden, behalve Defensie en Terrorismebestrijding die meer geld krijgen. Tegelijk houdt de VS in zijn eentje de uitvoering van het Kyoto protocol tegen, zegde ze eenzijdig het ABM-verdrag op en erkent ze het Internationaal Strafhof van Den Haag niet. Het is deze regering die, in naam van vrijheid en democratie, het martelen van vijanden aanmoedigt. Een dergelijke ‘leider van de vrije wereld’ is voor ons niet welkom in België.
Mijn gedachten gaan uit naar de vrouwen in Afghanistan en de Koerden in Irak. Zij behoorden tot voor kort tot de meest onderdrukte bevolkingsgroepen in de wereld, tot Bush tussenkwam. Nu behoren ze tot de vrije wereld waar Bush de “leider” van is. Waaraan hebben zij zulke onnozelheden als deze van Animo te danken? Ik wat volgt ga ik me beperken tot de grootste stupiditeiten.

Om te beginnen Afghanistan. Misschien is Animo al vergeten dat deze “inval” een zaak was van wettelijke zelfverdediging en als dusdanig ook zo werd beschouwd door de internationale gemeenschap? Zelfs België was niet tegen de “inval” in Afghanistan. Misschien is Animo het al vergeten dat het niet om een echte “inval” ging maar dat de Amerikanen vooral ondersteuning gaven aan binnenlandse oppositiekrachten om de Taliban te verdrijven? Misschien is Animo al vergeten dat in Afghanisten een zekere Osama Bin Laden schuilde/schuilt, toch verantwoordelijk voor duizenden doden op 11 september 2001, waarmee hij de oorlog verklaarde aan de V.S. en niet omgekeerd? Misschien is Animo al vergeten dat deze “inval” geleid heeft tot de val van een van de meest wanstaltige regimes in de wereld, waar vrouwen publiekelijk werden afgeslacht in een arena? Misschien is Animo vergeten dat deze “inval” geleid heeft tot de eerste democratische presidentsverkiezingen ooit in Afganistan en dat het land nu op weg in om van een totalitaire dictatuur te veranderen in een relatief vrije democratie? Misschien is Animo vergeten dat als gevolg van de “inval” de gelijkheid tussen mannen en vrouwen nu in de grondwet staat en dat miljoenen vrouwen nu zonder gevaar onderwijs kunnen volgen of kunnen gaan werken? Weet Animo wel dat voor het eerst een vrouw zal benoemd worden tot gouverneur van één van de Afghaanse provincies? Me dunkt dat de leider van de vrije wereld misschien niet welkom is in België, maar wellicht met veel enthousiasme zal worden ontvangen in Afghanistan en dan met name door de eerste vrouwelijke bestuurders in dat land.

Irak dan. De VS houdt inderdaad Irak bezet. Maar misschien is Animo vergeten dat dit het gevolg is van het feit dat de Amerikanen hebben gevochten om een bloeddorstige dictator te verdrijven. Is Animo nu reeds vergeten dat er onlangs miljoenen Irakezen de dood hebben getrotseerd om hun stem uit te brengen? Ik vermoed dat de leden van Animo als rechtgeaarde socialisten voorstander zijn van de stemplicht. Welnu stemplicht hadden de Irakezen niet nodig om in grote getale hun democratische rechten uit te oefenen. Zij beschouwden dat sowieso als een plicht, als een eer, en om de echte vijanden van de democratie zoals al-Zarqawi en Co een verpletterende nederlaag toe te dienen. Waar ze, met hulp van de Amerikaanse “bezetter” ook in zijn geslaagd.

De partij die nu de macht heeft in Irak – Sjiiten onder leiding van al-Sistani – heeft overigens de mogelijkheid het vertrek van de Amerikanen te vragen. De V.S. heeft altijd laten verstaan te vertrekken wanneer een gekozen regering hen dat zou vragen. Rare bezetting lijkt me dat. Natuurlijk is het niet zeker dat de Sjiiten dat ook gaan doen. Laat staan de Koeren, die graag wellicht nog voor een tijdje de bescherming van de Amerikanen willen genieten. Kan je hen dat overigens kwalijk nemen? Ze hebben ten andere 10 keer meer geleden onder Saddam dan de Palestijnen onder Israel. Pis maar verder op Bush hoor, maar als je Irak als reden opgeeft, besef dan ook dat je pist op de Iraakse Koerden. (Ik zou nu Animo kunnen vergelijken met Chemical Ali, urine al bij al zit boordevol chemische stoffen, maar zo’n slecht karakter ben ik nu ook weer niet.)

“Tegelijk houdt de VS in zijn eentje de uitvoering van het Kyoto protocol tegen” A-ha! Kyoto! Dat verdrag dat tegen zeer hoge kost de opwarming van de aarde voor enkele jaren uitstelt. Hoezo, de VS houdt de uitvoering tegen? Ik dacht toch dat de uitvoering deze week nog maar net van start is gegaan? Neen, de V.S. heeft niet het recht de uitvoering tegen te houden, wat het land overigens in zijn eentje niet kan, en dus ook niet gedaan heeft. Maar het heeft wel het recht om niet aan Kyoto deel te nemen, zeker wanneer de voltallige volksvertegenwoordiging in de V.S. heeft te kennen gegeven dat voor hen dat verdrag no passeran is. Het probleem verengen tot de V.S. en dan vervolgens tot Bush is dus intellectueel oneerlijk.

Ook om de volgende reden. Er zijn meerdere broeikasgassen dan enkel CO2. Er is bijvoorbeeld nog zoiets als methaan. Maar wellicht heeft Animo nooit gehoord van het Methane to Market Partnership waar 13 landen aan meedoen en dat tot doel heeft de emissies van dit broeikasgas te verminderen. Dit programma is een initiatief van de V.S. Methaan uit de atmosfeer halen, kan op korte termijn veel meer positieve gevolgen hebben, omdat methaan over een periode van 100 jaar 23 keer meer dan CO2, effectiever is in het vasthouden van warmte in de atmosfeer. Methaan uit de lucht halen voor hergebruik op aarde heeft overigens nog vele andere voordelen, wat niet altijd het geval is met CO2. Alleen betreft methaan maar 16% van alle broeikasgassen, dus de mogelijkheden om via methaan iets te doen aan het broeikaseffect zijn niet ongelimiteerd, zeker niet op lange termijn. Maar een strategie waarbij je eerst begint met methaan om vervolgens wanneer de technologische mogelijkheden ook in de derde wereld wat rijper zijn, de CO2-uitstoot aan te pakken, is zeker niet onzinnig. En op dat vlak zijn de Amerikanen nu eens voorlopers zie. Ondanks sterke economische groei is de uitstoot van methaan – door vrijwillige programma’s (!) – in de jaren negentig met 5% verminderd. De uitbreiding van dit programma naar andere landen, ondersteund met financiële middelen vanwege de V.S., kan een significante stap betekenen in de strijd tegen het broeikaseffect.

Ten slotte: de Amerikaanse begroting. Hier zijn we de intellectuele oneerlijkheid voorbij. Hier gaat het gewoon om leugens: “getuige de laatste begroting waar de uitgaven voor alle departementen (de sociale zekerheid op kop) gehalveerd worden”.

Even kijken.

- gezondheidszorg (health and human services) : vermindering 1%
- arbeidsmarkt (labor): vermindering 4%
- sociale zekerheid (social security): STIJGING 8%

Enzovoorts…

Dus niet alleen is er nergens sprake van een halvering, het departement sociale zekerheid kent zelfs een stijging van 8%!

Het snoeimes wordt vooral bovengehaald in het departement landbouw, waar Bush bovendien ook voorstelt om de subsidies aan rijkere boeren te verminderen. Vermindering van landbouwsubsidies is overigens ook een goede zaak voor de landbouwers in de derde wereld. Animo zou ook mogen wijzen op de toename van ontwikkelingshulp en andere internationale steunprogramma’s: + 14%.. Zeg nu nog eens dat Bush niets doet voor de derde wereld (wat een verschil met Clinton overigens!)

Trouwens als alle departementen gehalveerd worden, dan zou Amerika plots een fors overschot hebben op de begroting, wat niet het geval is, integendeel. Ze weten niet waarover ze het hebben, daar bij Animo.

Bush werd in november van vorig jaar met meer stemmen dan zijn tegenstander herverkozen als president. Amerika is een democratisch land, ook al lijkt het soms op een oligarchie. Maar ja het België van de PS en Elio Di Rupo lijkt soms ook op een oligarchie, dus dat zou geen probleem mogen zijn voor Animo. En Bush is een democratisch verkozen president ook al zijn we het niet eens met alle aspecten van zijn beleid. Als zelfs de Libische leider/dictator/terrorist Khadafi welkom is in ons land (van Animo hebben we toen niets gehoord), als de grote roerganger van de Vlaamse socialisten er geen graten in ziet op bezoek te gaan bij de Cubaanse dictator Fidel, dan is de democratisch verkozen leider van een vrij land meer dan welkom. Animo spreekt “not in our name”!

UPDATE

Rudi Vranckx, VRT-journalist en zeker geen cheerleader voor Bush, vertelt:

"Ik dacht dat Bush de verkiezingen zou verliezen, met wat er allemaal gebeurd was... Maar in de tijd van Reagan dachten we precies hetzelfde, en hij heeft er uiteindelijk voor gezorgd dat de Muur viel. Misschien dat we over tien jaar ook helemaal anders tegen déze feiten aankijken, en de geschiedenis helemaal anders wordt geschreven dan wij nu denken. Je moet durven inzien dat dat mogelijk is. Het grote gelijk bestaat niet. Het kan ook allemaal omklappen. Stel dat straks de democratie in Irak marcheert, dat ook Iran zich aanpast, dat Egypte en Saoedi-Arabië onder druk van de omstandigheden moeten veranderen... Je weet het niet. Als het extremisme daardoor afneemt en de omstandigheden van de mensen in de Arabische wereld veranderen... Ik durf echt niet te zeggen hoe de geschiedenis er over twintig jaar zal uitzien."


Iets voor Animo om over na te denken. De geschiedenis zou hen wel eens ferm in het ongelijk kunnen stellen.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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14/02/2005
Government and redistribution

Chris Dillow points out that big government is not necessarily good for redistribution. On the contrary. He writes:

(...) I’m sticking to my basic point, which is that there’s a trade-off between big government and redistribution. Higher government spending – in itself – is not necessarily egalitarian. Sure, the two are compatible in the sense that the government could raise both taxes and benefits, but there are many other ways in which the state grows over time.
Consider this example. The common agricultural policy (CAP) in Europe and similar schemes in other rich countries. In at least three ways this policy of protectionism and subsidies redistributes income from the poor to the rich, thus increasing poverty:

1. Between farm households and non-farm households: average farm household incomes in rich countries are higher than average household incomes. The opposite holds in developing countries. The CAP makes farmers in devoloped countries richer than average, in poor countries it makes farmers poorer.

2. Within the group of farmers in rich countries. Most aid goes to the largest and wealthiest farmers.

3. Between farmers in rich countries and farmers in poor countries, by depressing world prices and demand for agricultural products of poor countries.

Let’s face it. The CAP is a disgrace. It’s time to eliminate it. In agriculture it’s time to eliminate big government.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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12/02/2005
More neoliberalism please (and a better press corps)?

Ah. It’s all the fault of neoliberalism again:

Reformers blame problems on the legacy of 40 years of communism. But could it be that the reform process itself is responsible? Far from being a panacea, as claimed by eastern Europe’s political elite, following the IMF-EU economic prescription has caused hardship for millions.
Harry of Harry’s place - no neoliberal in any sense - has outsourced the reformist defence. Bottom line: if only we had more neoliberalism (and a better press corps)!

For starters, speaking only of Hungary, the warm and fuzzy Kadar economy was built on borrowed cash. With plenty of World Bank money on tap, the Kadar gov’t borrowed and spent like a drunken sailor, artificially raising living standards and burrying Hungary in debt. The "prosperity" of the 70s and 80s was a potemkin village, while rot ate everything behind the pretty facade. What did Hungary make in the 80s that anyone wanted to buy -- except for the food that COMECON countries bought? The years after transition represented the collapse of the Kadar non-economy when Hungary could no longer pay for it. Ask any Hungarian economist from that era -- regardless of their political affiliation. The system was totally bankrupt. Since then, living standards have steadily returned and surpassed the debt binge days of the 80s thanks to the open economy. Yes there are areas of severe poverty. Mostly among Roma and the rural population. That can be blamed squarely on discrimination against and isolation of the gypsy community and lack of education and training available in the countryside going back to the 80s and continuing now. Hungary’s problem now is an education problem. More companies want to come here and are running out of skilled people. As for those with an education, more are coming back now and fewer are leaving. It’s the same phenomenon we’ve seen in Ireland and Spain. As for the euro, he seems to be saying that EE has seen only deflation since the 1980s.?? I think he’s missing out on all the massive bouts with inflation. I remember when inflation here was 30%. The Maastricht criteria are very strict and keeping to 3% on budget deficits I agree doesn’t make much sense for the faster growing economies out here, but they will get a lot from the euro, like currency stability. The key will be what exchange rate they enter at. The bottom line is the prosperity you see in Eastern Europe is real. It’s built on actually productive economies that make things (services, too) that the rest of the world wants to buy. What they offer is also becoming increasingly more sophisticated, so it’s not all going to disappear to China tomorrow. Debt levels are sustainable and economies are growing. Elderly without extra family support, rural uneducated people and Roma have gotten screwed. No question. You can blame the first squarely on Kadar, the second partially on the lack of effort to boost education and the last on racism. But EVERYTHING would be worse if it were not for reforms, including decreasing the size of government -- which did almost everything badly here, and opening the country to foreign investment. Where else would they get the resources to development their economy? They have no natural resources -- which would be a curse anyway. They need to sell their skills and brains. They are doing that with the help of the foreigners who built the factories, call centres, R&D centres, etc etc. Finally, if neo-liberal reforms are so bad, why have the countries that have adopted more of them so much better off than the countries that have not? Compare Hungary and Poland to Romania. End of story. Romania is finally getting its act together and growth is going to take off-- in fact, it already has.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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12/02/2005
How far can free speech go?

Max Sawicky has is about right:

The U.S. Constitution’s First Amendment guarantees freedom of political speech. For example, one is free to advocate the violent overthrow of the State, as long as there is no likelihood that anyone would actually heed those words.
What goes for the U.S. goes for the rest of the world too.

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12/02/2005
World economic growth

Using the standard Solow growth model, Julio H. Cole attemts to show which factors made a difference in economic growth between countries during the period 1980-1999. After observing that growth in this period was not only lower than in the two decades before but also that the variability of average growth rates across countries was much bigger, he shows that the standard growth model actually does a pretty good job explaining the different growth rates. That is, if you augment that growth model with indicators of economic freedom and geography. In fact, economic freedom seems to be rather important for economic growht. Here are the conclusions:

1) Conditional convergence, as predicted by the Solow model, is present in the 1980-99 data, and seems to be a fundamental aspect of the underlying growth process. Other things equal, a country’s growth rate will tend to decline as its per capita income rises, though the actual rate of decline is quite slow. Nonetheless, this factor must be taken into account in any empirical growth analysis.
2) High population growth, as measured by the fertility rate, has a negative effect on economic growth. The worldwide trend over the past few decades has been in the direction of declining fertility levels, but they still remain quite high in many less developed countries. A continuation of this trend would provide some grounds for optimism regarding the prospects for growth in low-income countries. Countries that maintain persistently high population growth, however, will be at a disadvantage in terms of per capita income growth.
3) Investment in physical capital is important, and countries that save/invest a large share of GDP will grow faster than countries that save/invest little.
4) Human capital is also important for economic growth, and here too there is much scope for improvement. In 1995 the average level of the Barro-Lee educational attainment measure (“average years of schooling for the population aged 15 or over”) was about 6 years per adult, with a median value of 5.82 years. In other words, in half of the countries surveyed in Figure 14, the average adult has not completed primary education. Major improvements in this area can be expected to boost per capita income growth in less developed countries in the foreseeable future, and should remain a priority for development policy planners.
5) Perhaps the most important conclusions of this study relate to the role of economic freedom. Higher degrees of economic freedom, as measured by the EFW index, are associated with higher rates of economic growth. The main channel of influence appears to be through a direct “productivity effect,” since many of the components of the EFW index amount to measures of price distortions, which can be expected to affect economic growth through their effects on efficiency in the allocation of resources. An indirect “incentive effect” via the investment rate may also be present, but the evidence is less clear on this point (though there does appear to be a strong positive relationship between economic freedom and the productivity of investment).
6) Geography is a factor that should be taken into account in explaining cross-country variations in growth rates, since tropical countries are at a disadvantage in terms of economic growth. This pessimistic conclusion, however, should be tempered by a healthy dose of pragmatism: geographic location is a unalterable fact, and there is nothing that can be done about it, though much can be done in terms of the other determinants of economic growth. The penalty for “tropicality” can be overcome, for instance, by promoting policies that increase the level of economic freedom. In tropical countries, therefore, the case for economic freedom is even stronger than in non-tropical countries.
Finally, though these variables explain a large share of the observed cross-country variation in growth rates, a significant portion of this variation (over 20 %) remains unexplained. Some part of this, no doubt, is due to measurement error, and country-specific factors also play some role.


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12/02/2005
Breaking news: Windows safer than Linux, says....

Yeah, right:

Microsoft’s top security honcho insisted Thursday that Microsoft "is making progress on security using any reasonable metric." Mike Nash, the company’s chief security executive, made the comment during an online chat session just days after Microsoft rolled out its biggest bunch of Windows patches since April 2004. Nash staunchly defended the Redmond, Wash.-based developer’s progress, and compared Windows’ flaws with those in open-source Linux operating systems from Red Hat and Novell’s SuSE. "Even with the relatively large number of bulletins we released this week, we compare favorably," he said. "Year-to-date for 2005, Microsoft has fixed 15 vulnerabilities affecting Windows Server 2003. In the same time period, for just this year, Red Hat Enterprise Linux 3 users have had to patch 34 vulnerabilities and SuSE Enterprise Linux 9 users have had to patch over 78 vulnerabilities."
(Via Mitch Wagner)

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9/02/2005
Bush the internationalist

Yep, he went in de wrong direction in the past, and the proposed cuts already are scaled back, but at least he’s going in the right direction this time. Not only will Bush cut agricultural subsidies, but he proposes also a reduction in the maximum amount of subsidies a farmer can recieve. This will make the system less tilted towards rich farmers in the U.S., and (a little) more favorable towards poor farmers in developing countries. And by setting the example maybe Bush can give an incentive to other big spenders to do the same, which would be a good thing for the poor countries. Speaking of the poor countries, one of the biggest increases in Bush’s new budget concerns international assistance programs (+14%). Of course not all of this money will go towards poor countries or is destined for development, and one can be sceptical of the results of aid. But nevertheless if you combine the cuts in agricultural subsidies with the increase in foreign aid, one have to admit that Bush is taking up his international responsabilities.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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9/02/2005
Quote of the day

Abiola Lapite (see the comment section):

Some of the things I’ve seen with my own eyes over the years are so outrageous that it’s extremely difficult for me to believe that any African “leaders” have their subjects’ interests at heart - I came to libertarianism via real-world schooling in African political corruption, not by some tedious Randite doorstop.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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8/02/2005
Hot fight

The wheels are coming off (thanks to John Quiggin for the phrase) the attempt of some within the IPCC to link global warming with whatever negative they can find. Dr. Kevin Trenberth, lead author of one of the chapters the IPCC-report on climate change, held a press conference connecting the 2004 Atlantic hurrican season with global warming caused by greenhouse gases. As a result, Chris Landsea, and expert and one of the contributers to climate research resigned from the IPCC in protest. He wrote an open letter to the community about this. Money quote:

I found it a bit perplexing that the participants in the Harvard press conference had come to the conclusion that global warming was impacting hurricane activity today. To my knowledge, none of the participants in that press conference had performed any research on hurricane variability, nor were they reporting on any new work in the field. All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin. The IPCC assessments in 1995 and 2001 also concluded that there was no global warming signal found in the hurricane record. Moreover, the evidence is quite strong and supported by the most recent credible studies that any impact in the future from global warming upon hurricane will likely be quite small. The latest results from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Knutson and Tuleya, Journal of Climate, 2004) suggest that by around 2080, hurricanes may have winds and rainfall about 5% more intense than today. It has been proposed that even this tiny change may be an exaggeration as to what may happen by the end of the 21st Century (Michaels, Knappenberger, and Landsea, Journal of Climate, 2005, submitted). It is beyond me why my colleagues would utilize the media to push an unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global warming. Given Dr. Trenberth’s role as the IPCC’s Lead Author responsible for preparing the text on hurricanes, his public statements so far outside of current scientific understanding led me to concern that it would be very difficult for the IPCC process to proceed objectively with regards to the assessment on hurricane activity. My view is that when people identify themselves as being associated with the IPCC and then make pronouncements far outside current scientific understandings that this will harm the credibility of climate change science and will in the longer term diminish our role in public policy.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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7/02/2005
Irak heeft gekozen

Wat hiervan te denken? De grootste overwinnaars van de verkiezingen de soennitische provincie Salaheddin, een bolwerk van Saddam Hoessein en het Baathisme, zijn de Sjiiten en de Koerden. De eerste gedacht die door mijn hoofd schoot was: loontje komt om zijn boontje. De twee grootste slachtoffers van het totalitaire regime - de Sjiiten en de Koerden - komen nu als overwinnaars uit de bus, via democratische verkiezingen. Dubbel ironisch. Maar anderzijds is het resultaat natuurlijk ook het gevolg van het feit dat de meeste soennieten niet zijn gaan stemmen. De opkomst was in de provincie zeer laag. Nu als ook hier de Sjiieten en de Koerden domineren zal dat in de rest van Irak nog meer zijn. Irak komt zeer binnenkort in handen van de bevolkingsgroepen die altijd van de macht zijn uitgesloten en onderdrukt zijn geweest. Het komt er denk ik nu op aan dat de voormalige slachtoffers zich grootmoedig tonen naar hun voormalige onderdrukkers toe. Ze mogen niet vergeten dat het regime van Saddam ondersteund werd door een minderheid van de Soennieten. Een minderheid van de minderheid dus. Sjiiten en Koeren zullen aan de macht komen via verkiezingen. Ze hebben massaal getoond dat ze in de democratie geloven. Ze hebben de macht verkregen dankzij een democratisch principe. Het minste wat je van hen kan verwachten, ja zelfs eisen, is dat ze ook andere democratische principes - zoals bescherming van minderheden, gelijkberechtiging, vrijheid van meningsuiting enz..- dan ook toepassen op de de Soennieten. Deze laatsten geloven immers niet in democratie, zij vrezen dat ze onder de democratie slechter af zijn dan onder de dictatuur van Saddam. Het is aan de overwinnaars om deze vrees weg te nemen.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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7/02/2005
Op zoek naar de trigger-application

Het grote succesverhaal in de ICT-wereld is eigenlijk niet het internet en al zeker niet interactieve televisie en aanverwanten. Het grote succesverhaal is en blijft de GSM: 2,3 op 100 Belgen hadden een mobiele telefoon (liefkozend een mobieltje genoemd) in 1995, tegenwoordig is dat 84,1 Belgen op honderd (cijfers voor 2003). Vergelijk dat met de penetratie van het internet, en zeker met breedband, en de conclusie ligt voor de hand: gewone communicatie van persoon tot persoon, blijft het halen op inhoud, op het overbrengen van de grote verhalen naar de massa. Persoonlijke communicatie, via e-mail, blijft overigens ook nog steeds de belangrijkste trigger-application van het internet. En breedband past zich meer en meer aan deze realiteit aan. De a in adsl staat voor "asymetrisch". Downloaden kan sneller en tegen een hoger debiet dan uploaden. Waarom? Omdat met leveren van inhoud naar de gebruiker belangrijker werd beschouwd dan communicatie in beide richtingen, van persoon tot persoon. Dit verschil tussen uploaden en downloaden verdwijnt meer en meer. Maar de GSM-operatoren blijven kijken in de richting van inhoud. De volgende generatie mobieltjes moet tegelijk een gsm, een world wide web en een televie worden. Enkel dan, zo hopen de GSM-operatoren, zal het succes niet alleen bestendigd worden maar nog versterkt. De geschiedenis lijkt echter uit te wijzen dat dit onwaarschijnlijk is.

Wat verklaart het succes van GSM? Eén woord: concurrentie. Niet de concurrentie van de perfecte markt met vele vragers en vele aanbieders. Dat klopt uiteraard niet. Er zijn maar een beperkt aantal operatoren die bovendien marktmacht hebben en dus invloed uitoefenen op de prijs: het zijn prijszetters. Nee, het gaat hier om oligopolistische competitie. Maar het feit dat het niet om een "perfecte markt" gaat, maakt die competitie er niet minder hevig om, met grote voordelen voor de consument.

Hieraan moet nog een ander element worden toegevoegd: voice-over-ip (voip). Telefoneren via het internet dus; vrijwel gratis over de hele wereld. Mij lijkt het dat we nog wat moeten wachten tot VOIP massaal mogelijk wordt door uw mobieltje te koppelen aan het internet. Zodra concurrentie dan gekoppeld wordt aan de behoefte aan persoonlijke communicatie lijkt de conclusie duidelijk: vergeet digitale televisie, vergeet UMTS, VOIP wordt de trigger application voor de nabije toekomst.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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6/02/2005
The sceptical environmentalist on the environment

Bjorn Lomborg is sceptical, even that sceptical that he sees positive aspects in the new doom story of our time, global warming:
The environmental assessment of the impact of global warming in Denmark is that overall it will be slightly positive. We’ll have better agricultural production. We’ll probably have better forestry. We will, however, also have more flash rain. That will be a negative. One of the most typical examples we’re told is that people will die from heat waves from global warming. That’s true. People will die from heat waves. What you really seem to forget is in most advanced countries, the cold deaths outweigh heat deaths two-to-one. And of course while you will get more heat deaths, you will also get many fewer cold deaths, and actually a research team looking at the cold and heat deaths around Europe estimated that for Britain global warming will mean 18,000 fewer deaths.
(Via Hit and Run)

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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4/02/2005
State of the union: a view from the left

A leftish admirer of Bush’s state of the union. From The Nation:

Bush declared, "America will stand with the allies of freedom to support democratic movements in the Middle East and beyond, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world." And he named names, calling upon Saudi Arabia and Egypt, two autocracies long supported by Washington, to move toward democracy. Certainly, he--or Condoleezza Rice--might be on the phone tomorrow to Cairo and Riyadh, explaining that Bush does not expect immediate action. Nevertheless, such words probably will provide encouragement to democracy activists in those countries and in others. These people, though, should keep in mind that Bush’s father--who clearly is no role model for his son--egged on the Shiites in Iraq at the end of the Gulf War and then did not come to their rescue when they were slaughtered. Bush also showed he has not lost his appetite for regime change and muscle-flexing. He warned Iran to abandon any pursuit of nuclear weapons, vowing that America will stand with Iranians who seek liberty. He placed Syria in the crosshairs. There was no reference to the "axis of evil," but Bush did move Syria ahead of North Korea in the you-better-worry-next category. This president does not back down. Perhaps that’s why he won in November. He repeated his assertion that Iraq "is a vital front in the war on terror, which is why the terrorists have chosen to make a stand there. Our men and women in uniform are fighting terrorists in Iraq, so we do not have to face them here at home." US forces in Iraq, according to the US military, are mostly fighting Baathists who had no intention of attacking the United States "at home" prior to the invasion. But Bush sticks to his talking points. And he again pledged to stay in Iraq for as long as necessary, while maintaining "we will increasingly focus our efforts on helping prepare more capable Iraqi security forces." Without referring directly to his critics, he dismissed calls for establishing any exit plan with language that was noble: "We will not set an artificial timetable for leaving Iraq, because that would embolden the terrorists and make them believe they can wait us out. We are in Iraq to achieve a result: A country that is democratic, representative of all its people, at peace with its neighbors, and able to defend itself. And when that result is achieved, our men and women serving in Iraq will return home with the honor they have earned." Bush did not denounce his opponents; he cut back on the references to God. But he invoked FDR and the power of the American dream, comparing his project in Iraq to the abolition of slavery, the liberation of Europe, and the defeat of imperial communism. He was riding high on the high road.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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3/02/2005
James Kirk: neoconservative

I seems that the next captain of the U.S.S. Enterprise will be Paul Wolfowitz (with Richard Perle as first officer, and Christopher Hitchens as Spock):

The Prime Directive really takes us to the heart of the paradox of Star Trek. The United Federation of Planets is committed to non-interference in the affairs of other planets; Captain Kirk and his crew are not supposed to change the way of life of other civilizations. But, of course, they do it every episode--they just go right through the galaxy destroying one functioning civilization after another. I show that Kirk has a particular hostility to any civilization that smacks of theocracy or aristocracy. What it comes down to is this: the Enterprise will not interfere in a planetary civilization--provided that it looks just like John F. Kennedy’s 1960s America. But if it does not, it’s time to get out the phasers and blast away--to take down the Greek god Apollo, for example. Star Trek provides a perfect reflection of the paradoxes of America’s foreign policy--the non-democratic imposition of democracy around the world. The Enterprise was out to make the galaxy safe for democracy--and it would destroy any civilization that stood in its way. Gene Roddenberry’s message was clear: woe to any planet not ruled by a liberal democrat.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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1/02/2005
De onzichtbare hand

Meer en meer landen voeren testen uit met speciaal ontworpen kruispunten. Kruispunten zonder verkeersregels, zonder verkeerslichten of -borden, met zo weinig mogelijk wegmarkeringen. Bedoeling is om een gevoel van onveiligheid te creëren. Gevolg: niet meer, maar minder verkeersongevallen. In Ter Zake zat vanavond een reportage over dergelijk kruispunt in één of andere Nederlandse stad. De meningen waren verdeeld: velen vonden het verhoogde gevoel van onveiligheid maar niets. Maar werken doet het wel. Omdat weggebruikers zich onveilig voelen, gaat men automatisch oogcontact zoeken. Contact maken veronderstelt evenwel dat men vertraagt. Bijgevolg rijdt iedereen er even snel, of beter, traag. Auto’s, fietsers, moto’s...er wordt niet harder gereden dan dertig per uur. En dus blijven ongevallen uit. Meest verrassend was wellicht het feit dat er geen "gewenning" optreedt. Het gevoel van onveiligheid blijft, zelfs na veelvuldig het kruispunt gebruikt te hebben. En dus blijft het aantal ongevallen laag.

Phara de Aguire noemde het een revolutionaire theorie. Maar het is noch theorie, noch revolutionair. Het blijft tot nu toe weliswaar bij experimenten, maar in sommige landen worden dergelijke kruispunten al twintig jaar in de praktijk gebracht. Revolutionair is het al evenmin. Het is gewoon een werkende toepassing van de theorie van de "onzichtbare hand", uitgedacht door Adam Smith enkele eeuwen geleden. Ook zonder regels gedragen mensen zich als geleid door een onzichtbare hand op een manier zoals het hoort. Nu is het duidelijk dat dit systeem niet overal van toepassing is. Op autosnelwegen is het de bedoeling om tegen een behoorlijke snelheid zich te kunnen verplaatsen. Daarvoor moet men zich veilig voelen en dus zijn er regels nodig. Maar zelfs indien niet overal toepasbaar, de onzichtbare hand blijft een prachtig principe.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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1/02/2005
Market fundamentalism = common sense

In praise of fundamentalism:

Stiglitz’s The Roaring Nineties partially blames the big accounting scandals on market fundamentalism. But I’m inclined to agree with Henry Manne that one of the best cures for fishy accounting is to legalize insider trading. (...) Take one of the simpler complaints about U.S. accounting: failure to count the cost of stock options. If insider trading were legal, then insiders – like accountants at Arthur Andersen - could sell the stock of firms the knew to have poorly disclosed but seriously expensive stock options. The information pours into the market, the exaggerated earnings statements fail to impress, and Mr. Small Helpless Investor doesn’t get any rude surprises from his broker when news finally trickles down to the New York Times. I guess Stiglitz would deride my proposal as "market fundamentalism," but I call it common sense.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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1/02/2005
Thank Wolfowitz for that

I don’t know if the American’s really wanted this, but the communists are ready for a comeback, as the result of free elections...in Iraq:

A quarter of a century after Saddam Hussein executed its leaders and drove their comrades underground or into exile the Iraqi Communist party has resurfaced and looks set to make a respectable showing once votes are counted in Sunday’s elections. The party has attempted to mount a secular challenge to the Islamists who dominate the main coalition appealing to the Shia vote in the south. In doing so they have rekindled a struggle for the minds of Iraq’s historically marginalised Shia majority that stretches back to the middle of the last century.
In light of this any comparison with Vietnam is getting rather ridiculous. But of course readers of Christopher Hitchens know this already.
(Via Harry’s Place)

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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1/02/2005
A hamburger from India

Even in the fast food industry higher minimum wages leads to capital-labour substitution:

The McDonald’s restaurant in Hermiston, Oregon appears to be "outsaucing" customers [sic] drive-thru meals. The restaurant on Highway 395 has outsourced one of the most important jobs at the drive-through window -- order taking. When a customer drives through, they’ll be patched through to Grand Forks, North Dakota to place the order. Why? Because the minimum wage in North Dakota is $5.15, compared to Oregon’s $7.25.
Now as The Eclectic Econoclast rightly remarks there is nothing of course that pressures McDonalds to keep these jobs in America. It seems that also the so-called hamburger jobs are ripe to be outsourced to low wage countries. Good for them.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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1/02/2005
A cheap shot

DCMurungu reports:

Bill Clinton in Davos took a shot at the current administration, reportedly suggesting that some of the money used for the war in Iraq could have been better used in Africa. This may be true, but it is certainly rich coming from Clinton, who completely failed to defend the US foreign aid budget. Under his watch, US ODA to Africa fell precipitously. And, for all his faults, Bush has overseen huge increases in aid to Africa. It’s true the 2003 figure of $4.6 billion is inflated because it includes $1.2 billion as the debt write-off for DRC, but even not counting that, American aid to Africa is up 188% since 2000. Among the 22 DAC members, only Belgium has increased by more. Aid proponents, especially in Europe, have plenty of reason to be upset with Bush, but aid levels to Africa is not one of them.
It is indeed rich coming from Clinton who together with Blair kept the bombs raining down on Iraq in 1999 en 2000. At least Bush, by changing the regime, ended this forgotten war on Iraq.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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30/01/2005
Iraq votes (of course it is a flawed election edition)

Marcus over at Harry’s place:

For the naysayers:

Voting was to have ended at 1700 (1400 GMT) but was extended to allow people waiting at polling stations to cast their ballots.
A message to you, Juan. It’s telling i guess he fails to mention the election in Afghanistan.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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30/01/2005
Iraq votes VI

The Syrians appear to be nervous, but reactions in the rest of the world seem to be rather positive:

There was cautious optimism across America and the Middle East as the polls closed today in Iraq’s first multi-party elections in 50 years. Arab commentators said that the voters had sent a strong message that insurgents failed to wreck the poll. The most upbeat reaction came from the Abu Dhabi-based daily Al-Ittihad, which declared jubilantly "The new Iraq is born today" on its front page. The Arab News newspaper in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia called the vote "a very historic moment in the country’s long history," and said it was "a much needed victory for moderation." But analysts also voiced concern that the chaos had not allowed for truly representative elections. "We don’t want to drown in optimism," said the Qatar daily Al-Sharq. "For we know that the elections in Iraq aim for democracy, but it is not held in such an atmosphere."


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30/01/2005
Iraq votes V

al-Zarqawi says: yes, we are enemies of democray and the Iraqi people!

Al Qaeda’s group in Iraq said 13 of its suicide bombers were involved in a string of attacks against election centers in Iraq Sunday, according to an Internet statement. "Thirteen lions from the martyrs brigade of the Al Qaeda Organization for Holy War in Iraq launched attacks on the centers of infidelity and apostasy (polling stations) in various regions of Iraq," said the group led by al Qaeda’s leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. "Other brigades of the organization launched at least 30 rockets inside the Green Zone and some polling stations and all Sunni areas saw confrontation today," the statement said. Militants struck mainly in Baghdad, rocking the capital with nine suicide blasts in rapid succession. Zarqawi, whose group has claimed some of the bloodiest attacks in Iraq, last week declared all-out war on the elections. The Jordanian militant is the United States’ number one enemy in Iraq. Sunni guerrillas have intensified their suicide bombings and killings of Iraqi officials in a bid to disrupt the general election, which Shi’ite Muslims are poised to win. In earlier Internet statements the group said it was behind seven attacks on polling stations and U.S. forces in Iraq’s northern city of Mosul Sunday, as well as an unspecified number of attacks on other polling stations.
But the Iraqi people said today: we will win!

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30/01/2005
Iraq votes IV

From an Iraqi:

We would love to share what we did this morning with the whole world, we can’t describe the feelings we’ve been through but we’ll try to share as much as we can with you. We woke up this morning one hour before the alarm clock was supposed to ring. As a matter of fact, we barely slept at all last night out of excitement and anxiety. The first thing we saw this morning on our way to the voting center was a convoy of the Iraqi army vehicles patrolling the street, the soldiers were cheering the people marching towards their voting centers then one of the soldiers chanted "vote for Allawi" less than a hundred meters, the convoy stopped and the captain in charge yelled at the soldier who did that and said: "You’re a member of the military institution and you have absolutely no right to support any political entity or interfere with the people’s choice. This is Iraq’s army, not Allawi’s". This was a good sign indeed and the young officer’s statement was met by applause from the people on the street. The streets were completely empty except for the Iraqi and the coalition forces ’ patrols, and of course kids seizing the chance to play soccer! We had all kinds of feelings in our minds while we were on our way to the ballot box except one feeling that never came to us, that was fear. We could smell pride in the atmosphere this morning; everyone we saw was holding up his blue tipped finger with broad smiles on the faces while walking out of the center. I couldn’t think of a scene more beautiful than that. From the early hours of the morning, People filled the street to the voting center in my neighborhood; youths, elders, women and men. Women’s turn out was higher by the way. And by 11 am the boxes where I live were almost full! Anyone watching that scene cannot but have tears of happiness, hope, pride and triumph. The sounds of explosions and gunfire were clearly heard, some were far away but some were close enough to make the windows of the center shake but no one seemed to care about them as if the people weren’t hearing these sounds at all. I saw an old woman that I thought would get startled by the loud sound of a close explosion but she didn’t seem to care, instead she was busy verifying her voting station’s location as she found out that her name wasn’t listed in this center. How can I describe it!? Take my eyes and look through them my friends, you have supported the day of Iraq’s freedom and today, Iraqis have proven that they’re not going to disappoint their country or their friends. Is there a bigger victory than this? I believe not.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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30/01/2005
Iraq votes III

An eyewitness account:

I’ve just come out of a very big polling station where there are queues of people waiting to get in there. Masses of women. I’m amazed at the turnout of women. And inside the polling station there’s a sort of air of celebration there. One man said to me, ’It’s like a wedding.’ Another man said, ’It’s like Christmas’. And do you know, there’s a general feeling that this is a day of celebration for these people. I think it’s going to be a massive turnout here. It was slow to begin with and then it sort of speeded up. There were four explosions here early this morning, mortar explosions, but it doesn’t seem to have deterred people. We were amazed as we came down the main street: whole families were out, just strolling in a very leisurely way towards their local polling station; somebody had even brought sweets into this polling station for the voters; there was a big tray of sweets. I’m standing here just at the entrance to it now and I’ve talked to quite a few of the women and they’re very excited because this is their first opportunity to vote; and they keep coming towards us, you know, streaming down the street. ... I think people will be amazed when the turnout is known at the end of the day.


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30/01/2005
Iraq votes II

Two snippets. From Reuters:

Even in Falluja, the Sunni city west of Baghdad that was a militant stronghold until a U.S. assault in November, a steady stream of people turned out, confounding expectations. Lines of veiled women clutching their papers waited to vote. "We want to be like other Iraqis, we don’t want to always be in opposition," said Ahmed Jassim, smiling after he voted.
From the New York Times:

[If] the insurgents wanted to stop people in Baghdad from voting, they failed. If they wanted to cause chaos, they failed. The voters were completely defiant, and there was a feeling that the people of Baghdad, showing a new, positive attitude, had turned a corner. No one was claiming that the insurgency was over or that the deadly attacks would end. But the atmosphere in this usually grim capital, a city at war and an ethnic microcosm of the country, had changed, with people dressed in their finest clothes to go to the polls in what was generally a convivial mood.


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30/01/2005
Iraq votes

Imagine people who do not need to be compelled to cast their vote like in Belgium. Imagine being threatened to death, and still going to vote by the millions (apparently 72% of registred voters, much more than in the U.S. in the lastest presidential elections). Stop imagining. It’s happening today, in Iraq:

Some came on crutches, others walked for miles then struggled to read the ballot, but across Iraq, millions turned out to vote Sunday, defying insurgents who threatened a bloodbath. Suicide bombs and mortars killed at least 27 people, but voters still came out in force for the first multi-party poll in 50 years. In some places they cheered with joy at their first chance to cast a free vote, in others they shared chocolates.


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28/01/2005
Absolute equality versus absolute poverty

Don Boudreaux makes the case that most countries that are integrated in the world economy have eliminated poverty. This is also true in the U.S.. Of course Boudreaux talks of absolute poverty. Relative poverty however can never be eliminated, unless absolute equality is achieved. So capitalism almost everywhere has been very succesfull in eliminating absolute poverty, and i think that there will be almost a consensus between economists that one important reason for the succes of capitalism is that we never tried to achieve absolute equality.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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28/01/2005
Matthias Storme: Jezus Christus discrimineerde

Luc Van Braekel brengt verslag uit:

Tegenover diegenen die discriminatie "onchristelijk" noemen, citeert Storme uit het Mattheusevangelie, hoofdstuk 20, vers 13. De landeigenaar die arbeiders had gehuurd voor zijn wijngaard betaalde aan de ’arbeiders van het elfde uur’ evenveel als wat hij had toegezegd aan de arbeiders die de hele dag hadden gewerkt. Deze laatsten kloegen over discriminatie, en het Bijbelse antwoord luidde: "Ik doe je geen onrecht. We waren het toch eens geworden voor een denarie? Ik wil die laatste evenveel geven als jou. Of mag ik niet met het mijne doen wat ik wil? Of ben jij jaloers omdat ik goed ben?" Storme: "Christus zou vandaag in dit land in de gevangenis belanden wegens aanzetten tot discriminatie. En hij heeft toen reeds de vinger op de wonde gelegd: het eisen van gelijke behandeling is zelf ingegeven door onethisch gedrag, namelijk afgunst. Antidiscriminatiewetgeving is het product van een afgunstmaatschappij. Hoe kunnen we dan in hemelsnaam in het ethisch karakter ervan geloven?"
Nu ja, in de Bijbel zul je wellicht altijd wel één of ander citaat vinden om je eigen geloof of overtuiging te onderbouwen, dus veel belang moet je er ook niet aan hechten. Maar toch, het is best wel aangenaam te vernemen dat Christus de voorloper is van de Guy Verhofstadt van de Burgermanifesten waarin hij zich ook afzette tegen de afgunstmaatschappij...

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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28/01/2005
Lula to the other worlders: listen to the truth or shut up

The FT reports:

For all his charisma, even Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who came to power as the idol of Latin America’s Left, found it hard to sell his orthodox economic policy at the World Social Forum in Porto Alegre, Brazil, on Thursday. His audience of 10,000 anti-globalisation activists was already miffed at the Brazilian president’s decision to attend the World Economic Forum on Friday to meet the bigwigs of capitalism they so despise. But having to defend two years of textbook economic orthodoxy and cosy relations with the International Monetary Fund was too much for disenchanted supporters at an event launched as a challenge to Davos, Switzerland, five years ago. As a former union leader who in the late 1970s took on big business and a military dictatorship, Mr Lula da Silva was quick to snap back at his hecklers. “That noise comes from those . . . who don’t have patience to hear the truth,” he retorted, in reference to spontaneous jeering.
They better stick with Noam Chomsky, i guess. And luckily we still have the Belgian socialists to tell them what they want to hear. They could learn a thing or two from Robert Heilbroner though.

Gepost door/Posted by: ivan

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28/01/2005
Robert Heilbroner

Robert Heilbroner died earlier this month. I really enjoyed his The Worldly Philosophers. Deep down i think he really was a Keynesian in the sense that when the facts changed (or rather when he taught the facts had changed), he changed his mind. He started out as a liberal, became a socialist, and later on an environmentalist. He remained anti-capitalistic from this "green" perspective, but acknowledged that compared to socialism, capitalism was the better system:

Capitalism has been as unmistakable a success as socialism has been a failure. Here is the part that’s hard to swallow. It has been the Friedmans, Hayeks, and von Miseses who have maintained that capitalism would flourish and that socialism would develop incurable ailments. All three have regarded capitalism as the ’natural’ system of free men; all have maintained that left to its own devices capitalism would achieve material growth more successfully than any other system. From [my samplings] I draw the following discomforting generalization: The farther to the right one looks, the more prescient has been the historical foresight; the farther to the left, the less so.
And:

democratic liberties have not yet appeared, except fleetingly, in any nation that has declared itself to be fundamentally anticapitalist
He did not always get his facts right (capitalism did not lead to environmental doom), but at least he always was intellectually honest.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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25/01/2005
No collateral damage please (meaning no innocent casualties)

Ah, i see that the Americans are getting sensible:

The US had earmarked $780 million this year for Afghanistan’s drug fight, including $300 million for eradication and $152 million for aerial spraying due to start in March. Now, the US State Department is reportedly reworking the budget proposal, possibly removing funds for spraying. "We don’t know the side effects of spraying. Also, Afghans are not used to seeing this kind of thing [spraying], it could be seen as an attack on the people not just the poppy crops. That is a dangerous road to take," says Gen. Mohammed Daud, Head of the Anti-Narcotics Department at the Ministry of Interior.
The Afghan people elected a wise government if you ask me, a government that can say no to the U.S. Afghanistan does not want to become a client state, and the Americans seem to settle for that at the moment. As Brian Doherty correctly points out, it would be a good thing were Colombia to follow. The war on drugs, not the war on terror, is the real scandal of our time. The media should focus more on the "collateral damage" of that war.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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25/01/2005
Free is better than fair

Samuel Brittan on "fair trade":

(M)y objection to the term "fair trade" goes deeper. It is a weasel term that can be twisted to mean whatever we want it to mean. In the United States fair trade usually means resale price maintenance. I first came across the expression in the British context in relation to the late 19th century political leader, Joseph Chamberlain, who was a Conservative imperialist. He was a great exponent of "fair trade"’ which he promoted in the form of an autarkic British Empire. William Gladstone, who was by far the greater statesmen, remarked in 1881: "Fair trade bears a suspicious likeness to our old friend protection. Protection was dead and buried 30 years ago, but he has come out of the grave and is walking around in the broad light of day. But after long experience underground, he endeavours to look more attractive than he used to appear... and in consequence he found it convenient to assume a new name." Today when I see a supermarket product branded as "fair trade", I wonder whether it merely means that the company producing it is law abiding and observing general accepted conventions. Or whether it means it refuses to trade with businesses using cheap labour in emerging countries. Here is an all too frequent example of those who shout loudest about helping the poor actually harming them. No one likes cheap labour, least of all well fed journalists or policy analysts. But it is nevertheless the main advantage that some poor countries have to offer on the world market and is a stepping stone to better living standards.
On free trade:

A question asked by many contributors to this volume is why it is so difficult to mobilise mass support for free trade. Hilary Benn notes the effects of the Corn Laws on the price of bread, which helped to sweep away Protection in the 1840s. The threat of a dearer breakfast basket saw the defeat of the Conservatives Party by the free trade Liberals in 1906. Yet just as outrageous is the effect on the cost of food (roughly £600 pa for a family of four) imposed by the Common Agricultural Policy. Why does this not lead to similar anger? My own suggestion is that the reformers in the main British political parties and elsewhere, see the way forward, like Hilary Benn today, as a series of "further changes in the CAP." The same applies to trade policy in general. The detail of tit-for-tat WTO-and EU- type negotiations is mind numbingly boring even for economic journalists who specialise in other matters, let alone for the general public. If the British government had made a bold proposals for abolishing the whole CAP in the negotiations on the European Constitution, there would at least have been a lively debate. In return it might have had to offer more concessions on other items such as majority voting on a broader range of issues, which will in any case be necessary as the EU expands. The free trade movement has lost a great deal by becoming too associated with trade negotiations best left to specialists and not brought in to the broader debate about the merits and defects of a free market economy. Of course there are such things as market failures explained in every textbook. But these do not become better or worse because of the intervention of national frontiers. The protectionists have gained a lot of ground because they have becoming associated with hostility towards large international corporations. We do not have to pretend that these institutions are especially lovable. Personally I hate both government and corporate bureaucracy. Such corporations serve the public interest, national and international, mainly because they are forced to compete. The debate should centre on the extent of competition and the contestability of markets rather than the likability of the organisations I am not going to argue against a gradual and sequenced approach by some of the poorest countries to reducing import barriers. But the more quickly and thoroughly they can open their economies the more rapidly they are likely to prosper; and in OECD countries the barriers and subsidies should come down tomorrow.
I have asked it before, and i will ask it again: why not a week of free trade?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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25/01/2005
What would happen after the U.S. leaves Iraq?

The optimist case states that the insurgency would lose steam, the pessimists case states that much more is at stake. It is not only a "war" against the Americans, what we have here is a civil war between sunni and shia, and that after the U.S. leaves, another Ba’ath coup could well be a real possibility:

I had an interesting conversation with a middle-aged taxi driver who used to live in Fallujah and is now at relatives in Amiriya, Baghdad. After asking me which tribe I belong to (thus assessing my sectarian background) he started hurling abuses at the Shia, calling them Persians, Majoos (fire worshippers), rabid dogs and a handful of other descriptions that I can’t mention here. He described Allawi’s face as that of a f*ed horse and he dismissed the whole government as a band of thieves and traitors. I didn’t argue with him but I asked him what he believed would be a viable solution to this mess. He said that resistance was the only commonsense solution. First driving out the Americans, then fighting the Shia back into submission (as in 1991). Sunni Iraqis contend that elections are impossible to hold under occupation. Leaving aside the fact that this views conflicts with other historical examples in the region, Sunnis have never offered an alternative choice, which eventually leads one to guess that the opinion held by the Fallujan taxi driver above is precisely what they are planning to implement. I had another conversation some months ago with a retired Ba’athist old-timer who claimed that Ba’athists have the means to stage a third coup d’etat and return to power within 10 hours of an American withdrawal. On sensing my incredulity to his statement he asserted that Ba’athist cells exist in all parts of the country and that they do have a central command, even though many have formed seperate cells (often under Islamic labels) with their own leaderships. He said that they have the training and the funding as well as the support of neighbouring and regional governments. I concur that Ba’athists and former security forces are capable of immediately controlling at least 5 out of 18 governorates, along with the capital, if Americans are to be removed from the picture entirely. But I also see that as a fatal misconception, which is doing Sunnis harm, because I don’t believe the US is going anywhere so soon. Any government that assumes power after the elections also realises this, so .

I guess this makes it all the more important the Americans stay for the time being. Besides, they still have to fight al-Zarqawi et.al.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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25/01/2005
Markets versus states versus capitalism

Chris Dillow has some interesting thoughts about the role of markets and states, that is, their role in a non-capitalist society:

Face the facts – markets work. Markets are the least bad mechanism we have for allocating scarce resources. Many of the problems the Left associates with markets are not, strictly speaking, problems with markets per se. Instead, some – such as the insecurity they bring – are the result of missing markets. Economists have known for 50 years that complete contingent markets can, in principle, offer complete security. More recently, Robert Shiller has shown in The New Financial Order how markets can be used to protect people from insecurity. And other results of market transactions – that they can lead to horribly oppressive or exploitative working conditions - are the result of workers’ poor bargaining position. That can be redressed by asset redistribution and a basic income. Another leftist objection to markets is that they lead to alienated social relationships; we regard people not as human beings, but as instruments for our own satisfaction. I’m not sure this is right. Markets can be a basis for satisfying human relationships; the pub and local shop are important parts of village community life. And isn’t the relationship between a small shopkeeper and a regular customer healthier than that between, say, benefit claimant and civil servant? The notion that “public service” is somehow more human than market relationships is surely just plain false, at an empirical level. It’s vitally important to distinguish between markets and capitalism. Markets, I guess, will exist under any economic system. But it is markets that deliver the goods – not capitalism. Making this distinction will help address the problem Marcus at Harry’s Place rightly sees – “people don’t want to upset the apple cart. It’s still delivering the apples.”

And:

Ask: do we really need a big state? As I’ve said before, there’s a trade-off between big government and redistributive taxation. If the state is taking 40 per cent of GDP, the tax system cannot be a force for equality. As Julian Le Grand pointed out years ago, the middle class gets a better deal from the welfare state than the poor; although we all take it for granted, isn’t it just disgusting that the best state schools are in rich areas? As a means of delivering Left objectives, the evidence suggests the state is a failure. And what’s so intrinsically good about the state anyway? Surely, all history shows that it’s a force for the most evil oppression. Shouldn’t the left therefore look for ways in which the state might wither away?

Now in contrast to Chris i do not see mayself part of the left. In pure economic terms i do think that capitalism is still a great force for development. As Ayn Rand has put it, capitalism did not create poverty, it inherited it. So if there still are large pockets of poverty in the world, this is the result of the fact that capitalism has not yet reached many parts of the world. Africa is everthing but capitalistic. So i would not discard capitalism just yet. Nevertheless, i am symphathetic to many criticisms of capitalism. For instance, many companies are not necessarily pockets of freedom, but sometimes resemble more the state tyrannies G.W. Bush wants to liberate. But on the other hand if the left wants to be consistent is should take Chris Dillow’s advice: states are also forces of oppression, so instead we should better rely on markets than governments.
(Via Arnold Kling)

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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24/01/2005
Is open source software more secure?

A view from an insider (sorry no link):

What companies and users unfamiliar with the technical details of computing don’t realize is that commercial software bases its claims of "security" more on guesswork and hope than reality. Software marketing relies heavily on so-called "independent" testing and certification, but the software companies are the ones that pay for that testing and certification. Then again, what software company is going to advertise its products as "somewhat secure" or "very possibly secure"? But that’s actually closer to the truth. Some people, myself included, estimate that the cost of eliminating half of the bugs in commercial software far exceeds the revenue generated over the lifetime of the product. Of course, companies could recoup some of this cost by drastically increasing prices. But commercial software companies are already competing with open source software, and raising prices isn’t going to bring them any new customers. One of the main reasons I’m such a harsh critic of commercial software companies is because they didn’t bother to address the security and reliability concerns of their products until open source software became a serious enough threat to their business. I’ve used both commercial and open source software for more than 25 years, and I honestly believe that commercial software has fallen far behind open source software when it comes to security and reliability, not to mention the fact that open source software costs much less to support. Despite many commercial software companies’ claims about the security of their products, open source software is very difficult to compete with when it comes to security. Because of its worldwide use in research, open source software is always on the cutting edge of security. I trust open source software because I know a lot of other people have seen the same code I’m seeing. It’s important to remember that security is not simple, nor is it absolute. Developing secure software is an expensive, difficult, detailed, and time-consuming process. Competing effectively with open source software requires commercial software companies to commit to producing a secure product that’s better than what users can get for free. Only time will tell whether commercial software companies can focus on this task.

Look at the result of competition. On the one hand competition from open source software forces commerical software companies to improve on safety and reliability. On the other hand by putting a limit on prices it puts also a limit on the resources those same companies can spend on improving safety and reliability. So competition will force those companies to use more efficient and less costly ways to make theire software more safe and reliable. Or it will have to make their software that much better than open source so that it can command a premium.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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24/01/2005
Content versus communication

Andrew Odlyzko keeps on argueing forcefully that "content is not king". Sure, content dominates in volumes of data, it is important in shaping social and political views, and it can be profitable, but it’s also costly to make.

Still, it’s not king. In value, in terms of revenue, person-to-person communication is king. Look at the internet: e-mail still is the trigger application. But the big succes story of the past years was not the internet, it was wireless communication. Or take a historical look. In the past letters, not delivery of newspapers, was the most profitable part of the postal service. Systems designed for content delivery, like French Minitel, ultimately failed and could only survive because subscribers used it for personal communication.

And for the future, the success of broadband will probably become another testimony for the power of point-to-point communication, not content. At the moment broadband still is in large part designed to be a system for content delivery. The A in ADSL for instance stands for assymetrical: the capacity and speed of the link towards the home is higher than the link out, because broadband is believed to be used primarily to deliver content. In this case the capacity to download is much more important than the capacity to upload. But broadband is becoming increasingly symmetrical (SDSL...), so that it can and will be used more and more for person-to-person connectivity.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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23/01/2005
Progress in transportation

Tyler Cowen tries to explain why we have expected so much more progress in transportation than we actually got:

1. In the last fifty years, for technological reasons, transportation has been relatively stagnant. More decentralized uses of flying still consume too much energy and are too dangerous.
2. The public nature of the relevant property rights (e.g., roads, airspaces) has hindered progress.
3. Futurists have no job or no audience unless they predict changes. They are especially inclined to exaggerate about transportation, perhaps because it is so visible in our lives.
4. We have focused on moving physical resources and information, rather than moving people. In the former areas progress has been immense. Who needs better transportation when the world can be brought to your doorstep?


So if we want more progress we better concentrate on:

1. making decentralized tansport less energy intensive and safer, instead of building only more and bigger jumbo’s
2. privatizing roads, airspace etc....
3. stop listening to futurists
4. focusing on even more mobility for people.

Or maybe it doesn’t really matter that transportation did not progress that far. Indeed, what’s wrong with having the world on your doorstep? And concerning space, i don’t see really much interesting at the moon at the moment. Apart for some people interested in science, the moon isn’t that fun as a toerist destination. And if the demand isn’t there...don’t expect that much technological progess.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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22/01/2005
Sigh

Eric Hobsbawn wrote about the recent speech of G.W. Bush:

The rhetoric implies that democracy is applicable in a standardised (western) form, that it can succeed everywhere, that it can remedy today’s transnational dilemmas, and that it can bring peace, rather than sow disorder. It cannot.

I suppose that Hobsbawn is a proud member of the largely (but not completely!) left-wing reality-based community, making fun of those idealistic "neo-conservatives" that try to impose democracy everywhere. But let’s look at the record. America’s meddling in the Ukraine worked. True, largely because it was not only the Bush-administration that did the meddling. America’s intervention in Afghanistan by and large worked (but it’s not clear if it is durable, one can fear the U.S. finds imposing it’s one-sided view on drugs more important than imposing democracy). In Iraq things admittedly doesn’t seem to be very bright, but it still is in the balance. Elections, even as flawed as in Iraq, still are better than putting a dictator in the seat. So in the worst case, that still is two out of three. And indeed it doesn’t have to be via a military intervention (Ukraine). And it isn’t a standard form of democracy: it is largely Western-style in the Ukraine, but it will not be a Western-style democracy in Afghanistan, and if Sistani et.al. win the elections it will even be less Western-style in Iraq.
It is i think very realistic to start from the premisse that the U.S., as the only superpower, will keep on intevening in the affairs of other countries. It has always done so. And, with or without Bush, it will not stop doing it. Not so long ago however, maybe even now still, the U.S. was busy with imposing dictatorships and "liquidating democracy". The U.S. then was critizised not only because it intervened, but by the left because it intervened to do the morally wrong thing: supporting tyrannies. But now we have president Bush saying that all those critics are right, that indeed the U.S. should not support tyrannies but fight them, with military means but also otherwise. A right-wing conservative president admit that they are right. And how do those left-wingers respond? That it isn’t realistic to liquidate tirannies and promote democracy...

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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22/01/2005
More freedom in China

China is going to increase the protection of private property rights, according to Freemarketnews.com:

In March of 2005, the National People’s Congress of China is expected to approve an amendment to their constitution specifically stating that private property is inviolable, and will restrict the use of eminent domain. This will have an enormous effect on Chinese ownership. According to Mao Yushi, a renowned economist in Beijing, citizens own 11 trillion Yuan in private property already, compared to State assets of about 1 trillion Yuan. [4] Clearly, China’s reformation is well on its way.

Economic freedom in China is on the rise. Now how about political freedom? Here some speculation:

within the end of this decade, by 2011, we’re going to see basically the Communist Party out of power because, you know, if we look at every single system that has tried to do what China’s doing, this going from a command economy to a functioning free market, no country has been successful without regime change. And why do we think that China’s going to be successful? You cannot have a stable economy in an unstable country, and every day there are hundreds of protests in China. So inevitably there’s going to have to be some political reform. Whether as part of South Korea or Taiwan as we talked about before or whether it’s going to be a Soviet Union-style crackup, it’s going to have to happen. And probably because of all this economic growth we’re seeing and all this social change, it’s probably going to happen fairly soon.

I hope that’s right, i hope we can see something like what has happened in Chile, where we had a dictatorship implementing some liberal reforms in the economy with some goods results economically followed by a rather smoothly transition towards a liberal democracy. There is one big condition i think, that is that the West starting from the misguided idea of "unfair competition" puts some brakes on China’s economic development by closing it’s economy for Chinese products and by limiting outsourcing to China. Because a poor, undemocratic and unstable China is in nobody’s interest.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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21/01/2005
A dark side of capitalism

JP Morgan apologized today for the ownership of slaves by two predecessor banks in the 19th century. JP Morgan called it a "brutal and unjust institution". Besides acknowledging wrong-doing, Morgan also put a website up to provide information and to bring this cruel part of it’s history under the spotlight. The right thing to do:

Banks that later became part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. received thousands of slaves as collateral for 19th century loans, the No. 2 U.S. bank said on Thursday in an apology. The bank made the revelation to the city of Chicago to comply with an ordinance requiring companies doing business with it to disclose any links to slavery. JPMorgan also sent a letter to employees apologizing for its’ predecessors involvement in a "brutal and unjust institution." Citizens Bank and Canal Bank in Louisiana served plantations from the 1830s until the U.S. Civil War (1861-1865), Chairman William Harrison and President Jamie Dimon said in the letter. The banks sometimes took ownership of slaves when plantation owners defaulted on loans. JPMorgan Chase, which became the second largest bank in the United States last year after buying Chicago-based Bank One Corp., estimated that between 1831 and 1865, Citizens Bank and Canal Bank accepted approximately 13,000 slaves as collateral. The banks eventually owned about 1,250 slaves. "We apologize to the African-American community, particularly those who are descendants of slaves, and to the rest of the American public for the role that Citizens Bank and Canal Bank played," the letter said. JPMorgan said in its disclosure to Chicago that Canal and Citizens merged in 1924, and appear to have been taken over by Chase in 1931. Canal failed and some of its deposits and loans were included with National Bank of Commerce in New Orleans when it was formed in 1933. In 1998, Bank One purchased the New Orleans bank. JPMorgan’s Bank One unit holds deposits for Chicago, underwrites the city’s municipal bonds and helps finance affordable housing. JPMorgan said it was establishing a $5 million college scholarship program for five years "to both acknowledge the past and improve the future," and to provide full-tuition undergraduate scholarships to black students from Louisiana to attend colleges there. The bank has posted historical documents concerning this part of its history at www.bankone.com/ourapology.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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21/01/2005
Defending private accounts

Burton Malkiel, of random walk fame, defends private accounts as a low-risk supplement to the system of social security. It has to be well-designed however, with some important conditions attached, such as rebalancing of the portfolio as the investor ages. Also, it should only be available for young workers so that the investment horizon is long enough for the stock market to do it’s magic. Nevertheless, according to Malkiel, even if market returns in the future are half their historical avarage those young investors will still be better off with private accounts.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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21/01/2005
Dysfunctional states are the challenge

Martin Wolf:

If we wish to make our world a better place, we must look not at the failures of the market economy, but at the hypocrisy, greed and stupidity that so often mar our politics, in both developing and developed countries. The market and the state are two sides of just one coin. Liberals tend to underestimate the importance of the latter, just as dirigistes underestimate the importance of the former. It is through the balance they have struck between markets and the state that the liberal democracies have triumphed. Yet today it is not markets that are most in trouble, but states. In too much of the world, they are dysfunctional. That is the great challenge we confront.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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21/01/2005
Leon De Winter, links, en de Bush-doctrine

De Nederlandse schrijver Leon De Winter (vandaag in De Tijd):

Het opmerkelijke van de Bush-doctrine is dat de onschendbaarheid van de dictatoriale natiestaten, wier brutaliteit feitelijk door het handvest van de VN wordt beschermd, niet meer door de VS wordt erkend. Bush vindt dat mensenrechten en democratische processen belangrijker zijn dan het primaat van de natiestaat wanneer deze tiranniek is en de mensenrechten niet erkent. Bush schaart zich met zijn doctrine bij de grootste Amerikaanse revolutionairen. Het is van de gekke dat vooruitstrevend links hem verafschuwt.

Ik zou niet zo hard zijn voor links. Het is helemaal niet gek, zelfs begrijpelijk, dat men de persoon Bush verafschuwt. Bush is nu éénmaal een harde conservatief erop uit belangrijke "linkse" verwezenlijkingen zoals de welvaartsstaat tot minimale proporties te herleiden. Minder begrip kan men hebben voor die linkse types die ook de Bush-doctrine zelf verafschuwen: mensenrechten, vrijheid en democratie plaatsen boven het primaat van de natie-staat zou bij uitstek een links uitgangspunt kunnen en moeten zijn. Al kan men hier volgende kanttekening bij plaatsen. Zelfs wanneer men die doctrine aanhangt en verdedigt - wat links dus mijn inziens zou moeten doen - dan nog kan men veel wantrouwen hebben tegenover diegene die deze doctrine wil toepassen. Het is al wel vaker voorgevallen dat de V.S. de kaart trokken van vrijheid en democratie en vanuit deze opvatting de souvereiniteit van bepaalde natie-staten trachtte te ondermijnen. Vaak ook bleek het evenwel te gaan om een selectieve en hypocriete toepassing hiervan: tyrannieën van linkse signatuur werden omvergeworpen of bestreden (Nicaragua, Cuba...) terwijl dicataturen van rechts op steun konden rekenen (Chili, El Salvador, Guatemala...). En vaak ook waren er mensen bij betrokken die het mooie weer maken of maakten in de regeringen-Bush: mens als Otto Reich, John Negroponte (de huidige Amerikaanse ambassadeur in Irak, Elliot Abrams komen niet bepaald geloofwaardig over als ze het over democratie en vrijheid hebben (Paul Wolfowitz is een meer genuanceerd geval: hij zag reeds eind jaren zeventig in welk gevaar Saddam Hoessein voor de regio kon worden en hij speelde een rol in de val van de Filipijnse dictator Marcos).

Toch lijken er redenen te zijn om dit wantrouwen voorloping wat in de koelkast te steken. De Taliban kon men moeilijk links noemen en in Irak leek links door de val van Saddam opnieuw een kans te krijgen. De eerste krant die verscheen na de omverwerping van het regime was dat van de communistische partij, en er zitten vertegenwoordigers van de communisten in de overgangsregering. Zowel in Afganistan als in Irak heeft nu in elk geval het idee van verkiezingen ingang gevonden; en dat is ongetwijfeld een goede zaak. Overigens vindt Paul Wolfowitz dat we hoe dan ook de uitslag moeten respecteren ook wanneer het regime dat aan de macht komt de V.S. niet gunstig gezind is. Reuel Marc Gerecht, van het American Enterprise Institute, een neoconservatieve denktank, is dezelfde mening toegedaan. Zelfs wanneer personen als ajatollay Sistani niet verdacht kunnen worden van al te veel liberale ideeën, dan nog is hij in elk geval een democraat, en de V.S. zou er goed aan doen deze democratische krachten te steunen.

Maar al bij al had de speech van G.W. Bush uitgesproken moeten zijn door Kofie Anan. Het is immers de taak van de V.N. en niet van de V.S. om de wereld van tyrannie te bevrijden. Maar dat betekent wel, ten eerste, dat het primaat van de natie-staat niet langer als grondslag van de V.N. geldt, en ten tweede, dat de V.N. bij machte wordt gesteld om die taak op zich te nemen. In het andere geval kan men het misschien toch maar best overlaten aan de V.S.: zij hebben ten minste de macht om één en ander te veranderen. Hopelijk ten goede.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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20/01/2005
Betalingen via bankkaart binnenkort mogelijk op internet

Een stap vooruit inzake e-commerce, althans technologisch bekeken. Shoppen via het internet kan vanaf december ook via een Bancontact-kaart. Banksys heeft daarvoor eigen software ontwikkeld, zo melden VTM en Het Laatste Nieuws. Vooral voor jongeren lijkt dit een grote stap voorwaarts om aankopen te doen langs electronische weg. Het zal dan ook niet lang meer duren vooraleer de eerste wetsvoorstellen worden ingediend om jongeren hiertegen te beschermen. Anderzijds wordt deze wijze van betaling een monopolie van Banksys. In het licht van de discussie rond patenteerbaarheid van software, is het niet onbelangrijk deze zaak van naderbij te bekijken. Immers, voor wat betreft de bankautomaten/bankkaart in de "fysische" wereld heeft Banksys een monopolie. Dat valt te verdedigen omdat het opzetten van bijkomende netwerken wellicht inefficiënt is. Maar deze redenering gaat niet op voor het internet. Maar Banksys kan er natuurlijk wel een monopolie van maken door haar software te beschermen via een patent. Het gevolg KAN zijn dat er hogere tarieven zullen worden gevraagd om betalingen met bankkaart via internet te doen, dan wanneer er competitie zou zijn. Bovendien zitten we vast met de software van Banksys, wat de kwaliteit en veiligheid ook niet noodzakelijk ten goede komt.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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19/01/2005
The return of the Austrians

Tyler Cowen over at Marginal Revolution points out that Brad Setser and Brad DeLong are Austrians:

If I believed in Austrian business cycle theory

1. I would think that Asian central banks, by buying U.S. dollars, have been driving a massive distortion of real exchange and interest rates.

2. I would think that the U.S. economy is overinvested in non-export durables, most of all residential housing.

3. I would think that we have piled on far too much debt, in both the private and public sectors.

4. I would think these trends cannot possibly continue. Asian central banks may come to their senses. Furthermore the U.S. would be like an addict who needs an ever-increasing dose of the monetary fix. This, of course, would eventually prove impossible.

5. I would think that the U.S. economy is due for a dollar plunge, and a massive sectoral shift toward exports. Furthermore I would think it will not handle such an unexpected shock very well.

6. I would buy puts on T-Bond futures and become rich.

7. I would think that Hayek’s Monetary Nationalism and International Stability, now priced at $70 a copy, is the secret tract for our times.

Of course that is not me. But at least someone appears to believe in Austrian business cycle theory.


To which Brad DeLong, a Keynesian most of the time, pleads guilty:

But the U.S. fiscal deficit, its reflection in the balance of trade, and the... interesting policies of Asian central banks produce problems that cannot be analyzed as either too much or too little aggregate demand. The Austrian theoretical framework thus seems to be the only tool at hand. And when all you have is a hammer...

It’s a strange world we live in.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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19/01/2005
Join the enemy

De muziekindustrie heeft het licht gezien, en de winst...dankzij het internet:

De muziekindustrie klimt weer stilaan uit het dal. Na zware verliezen de afgelopen jaren door het illegaal downloaden via internet, meldt de Internationale Federatie van de muziekindustrie IFPI dat de bedrijven in de muziekbranche in 2004 de winsten zagen stijgen met ,,honderden miljoenen dollar’’. ,,De grootste uitdaging voor de industrie van bij het begin was om het kopen van muziek makkelijker te maken dan het stelen van muziek’’, zei IFPI-voorzitter John Kennedy. ,,Die wens is nu realiteit.’’ Er zou nu versneld een nieuwe markt ontstaan: muziekliefhebbers in de VS en Europa kochten het afgelopen jaar 200 miljoen titels, tienmaal zoveel als in 2003. De gezamenlijke omzet van de on-linemarkt beliep vorig jaar 330 miljoen dollar. Naar verwachting zal dat bedrag dit jaar verdubbelen. Het aantal websites dat muziek aanbiedt tegen betaling is vorig jaar toegenomen van 50 naar 230.

Niet dat ze nu de illegale downloaders met rust laten:

In de toekomst wil de industrie blijvend campagne voeren tegen illegale downloads. Rechtszaken tegen illegale aanbieders en internetpiraten moeten de toon blijven zetten, aldus IFPI. ,,De mensen moeten beseffen welke enorme gevolgen hun gedrag heeft voor de muziekindustrie en welke straffen hen boven het hoofd hangen’’, zegt Kennedy.

Nu dat de muziekindustrie eindelijk het nieuwe businessmodel lijkt te omarmen is er minder reden om illegaal te gaan downloaden. Aan de andere kant nemen de mogelijkheden om de muziekindustrie verder een neus te zette alleen maar toe. Denk aan de torrents, of aan sattelietradio...En dus zal de industrie verder gaan in haar strijd.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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17/01/2005
Ten reasons to go to McDonalds

For fun loving libertarians. Ten reasons to go to McDonalds.

And here are ten reasons to love global warming. Best reason: what have the Dutch ever given us anyway?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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17/01/2005
Cheers!

Some fine words for the puritanical socialists of my country (they are less puritanical in Britain) that want to ban selling alcohol to youngsters:

What we do have is a society in which sometimes, and for a variety of reasons, people like to drink to get drunk. Not because they think that wine goes better with dinner than Ribena; not because they want to relax a little after a hard day’s white-collar work; not because they believe the studies about a glass of red being good for their hearts (but two pints of lager being very bad indeed); but because they want to get off the plane of existence that is normal, humdrum, everyday life, and into that parallel universe of inebriation. What’s wrong with doing that once in a while? Nothing. Indeed, there is a good deal that is very right about it. It is not the consequences of drunkenness that make it a modern bogeyman, but its simple out-of-controlness. For a political class hell-bent on micro-management of all aspects of everyday life, in thrall to etiquette, suspicious of spontaneity, and living by the code of ’everything in moderation’, the image of the carefree drunk is one that it cannot comprehend, still less empathise with. For the rest of us, for whom the odd bender is not a political statement but a welcome fact of life, we should resist the temptation to buy into the cult of ’responsible drinking’ and remember what we are doing in the pub in the first place. Already, there are too many twentysomething women on broken detox diets crying into their alcopops about how they know they drink too much. There are too many single men staying ’just for the one’ before driving home to their X-box and pizza-and-Pepsi meal deal. There is too much consensus that we need to change the licensing laws because we have a cultural ’drinking problem’ (rather than simply changing the law to allow us to have a drink when we want it). There is too much no smoking at the bar, no swearing at the bar, no standing at the bar and no going to the bar too many times. We know that, every now and then, one very important reason to drink is to get drunk. We know that people with lost inhibitions generally don’t get raped, beaten up or bankrupt, but generally do become sexier, funnier, more honest and more sociable (even if they appeal only to other drunk people). And we know that humdrum everyday life is often better escaped from in a pub with colleagues, friends and strangers than obsessed upon over a nice bottle of wine with a therapist or mentor. So let’s leave the official preoccupations with when we drink, how much we drink and why we drink to the medics, judges, politicians and policemen, and carry on drinking as we choose.

The socialists are too long in power in Belgium, they think they can regulate everything. We are not far from being regulated to death, and i think it’s better to amuse yourself to death.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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17/01/2005
O-oh

Die teletubbies toch. Zooooo braaf:

De SP.A wil de verkoop van alcohol aan jongeren onder zestien jaar aan banden leggen. Een eerste wetsvoorstel van kamerleden Karine Jiroflée en Maya Detiège richt zich op de verkoop via drankautomaten. Een tweede regelt de verkoop via de distributiesector.

De puriteinen in dit land halen meer en meer de overhand. En laat dat nu toch net die politici zijn die zoveel aantrek hebben bij jongeren. Inge Vervotte blijkt uiteindelijk een preutse non in wulpse CD&V-vacht te zijn. En die sexy socialisten blijken niet meer te zijn dan allesonthouders, wat ze dan ook nog aan andere willen opdringen (ha, daar zijn het socialisten voor!). Alles gratis? Probeer binnenkort nog maar eens iets te kopen!

Waar is de tijd dat de linkse rakkers nog meezongen met Pink Floyd: "leave us kids alone"!

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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12/01/2005
Bush is worse!

Jim Henley writes:

All together now: Saddam was worse! In terms of body count in Iraq this is true, though the man had a big head start on us, so we ought to be allowed a couple of decades to catch up. But what about the world ? Is it better? And are we? We have gone from a time in which the tyrant of an oil patch with a broken army and 23 million inhabitants practiced a tyranny which all decent people abhorred, to a time in which the largest and most powerful country in the history of mankind justifies torture and contemplates assassination teams - we should call them terror squads - as official policy. And the people who most consider our virtue unchallengeable are the quickest to publically avow our need to torture and murder. That is quite a change. Is it hard to see why so much of the world regards it as unwelcome?

While the picture he paints might be an exaggeration, it’s not untrue. But I don’t see this as an automatic result of the war in Iraq. The justification of torture, the possible (streneously denied by Rumsfeld btw) use of terror squads, and other acts of state terror... we have seen it before (El Salvador), with or without a war, and sometimes with a "war" not to despose a tyrant or vicious regime but to back him or it. The picture Henley paints for my part can and should be used for a harsh condemnation of the incompetence and mandacity of the Bush-administration, but not necessarily as a condemnation of regime change in Iraq. Now where Henley is right I guess is on the impact of Bush’s policies on te world. Not so much because of what he is doing in Iraq, but of what he is doing in and with America.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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12/01/2005
Andrew Rose on international trade

Andrew Rose wrote a piece for the NBER Reporter about his research into the macroeconomic determinants of international trade. Sometimes this research has led to surprising results. One of the more remarquable was his finding that being a formal member of the WTO and it’s predecessor the GATT has had no effect on the amount of trade that country engages into. One of the reasons for this result is that one of the most basic principles of the GATT, the principle of the most favored nation, has also in many case been granted by and to countries outside of the GATT-system. Another is that at least the GATT (the WTO could well be another matter, but this seems doubtfull) was in a way a very lenient system, allowing to many members a special and differential treatment (read: protectionism).

Other results:

- currency unions have a large effect on trade, which gives new members of the EU a good reason to join the Euro;
- countries with more international trade tend to have more synchronized business cycles;
- debtors tend to borrow more from creditors with whom they have more international trade.

Worthwhile a read.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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11/01/2005
Genetically modified

A new report shows once again that GMO’s are safe for human consumption. I first wanted to write: absolutely safe, but i can’t make this hard of course. No food, not even if it is genetically modified, is absolutely safe. But nevertheless the figures are quite impressive: a trillion servings without anyone getting harmed. That’s a very good track record certainly compared with "common" food. The report also says that Europe’s regulations concerning GMO’s are "scientifically unjustified". But don’t expect Europe’s policies or eating habits to change because of this. They rather die eating genetically unmodified foods (at least they think it’s not modified) than admit they are wrong.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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11/01/2005
Two views on private accounts

Not exactly two very different views (that’s the surprising thing i guess, or maybe great minds think alike?), but the first comes from the left, the second from the right:

First, Paul Krugman:

Privatizers believe that privatization can improve the government’s long-term finances without requiring any sacrifice by anyone — no new taxes, no net benefit cuts (guaranteed benefits will be cut, but people will make it up with the returns on their accounts.) How is this possible? The answer is that they assume that stocks, which will make up part of those private accounts, will yield a much higher return than bonds, with minimal longterm risk. Now it’s true that in the past stocks have yielded a very good return, around 7 percent in real terms — more than enough to compensate for additional risk. But a weird thing has happened in the debate: proposals by erstwhile serious economists such as Martin Feldstein appear to be based on the assertion that it’s a sort of economic law that stocks will always yield a much higher rate of return than bonds. They seem to treat that 7 percent rate of return as if it were a natural constant, like the speed of light. What ordinary economics tells us is just the opposite: if there is a natural law here, it’s that easy returns get competed away, and there’s no such thing as a free lunch. If, as Jeremy Siegel tells us, stocks have yielded a high rate of return withrelatively little risk for long-run investors, that doesn’t tell us that they will always do so in the future. It tells us that in the past stocks were underpriced. And we can expect the market to correct that. In fact, a major correction has already taken place. Historically, the priceearnings ratio averaged about 14. Now, it’s about 20. Siegel tells us that the real rate of return tends to be equal to the inverse of the price-earnings ratio, which makes a lot of sense.1 More generally, if people are paying more for an asset, the rate of return is lower. So now that a typical price- earnings ratio is 20, a good estimate of the real rate of return on stocks in the future is 5 percent, not 7 percent. Here’s another way to arrive at the same result. Suppose that dividends are 3 percent of stock prices, and that the economy grows at 3 percent (enough, by the way, to make the trust fund more or less perpetual.) Not all of that 3 percent growth accrues to existing firms; the Dow of today is a very different set of firms than the Dow of 50 years ago. So at best, 3 percent economic growth is 2 percent growth for the set of existing firms; add to dividend yield, and we’ve got 5 percent again. That’s still not bad, you may say. But now let’s do the arithmetic of private accounts. These accounts won’t be 100 percent in stocks; more like 60 percent. With a 2 percent real rate on bonds, we’re down to 3.8 percent. Then there are management fees. In Britain, they’re about 1.1 percent. So now we’re down to 2.7 percent on personal accounts — barely above the implicit return on Social Security right now, but with lots of added risk. Except for Wall Street firms collecting fees, this is a formula to make everyone worse off.

Next we have from The Weekly Standard, Irwin Stelzer:

It is true, of course, that the return on investment in stocks has been higher over the long run than has the return earned by the Social Security Trust Fund. But it is far from certain that the 7 percent historically earned on stocks is a sure clue to what the future holds. Indeed, with share prices selling at higher multiples than in the past, it is not an unreasonable guess that earnings will be closer to 5 percent. A bit of arithmetic: A portfolio invested 50 percent in stocks earning 5 percent, and 50 percent in bonds earning a real return of, say, 2 percent, will have an average yield of 3.5 percent. Deduct 1 percent for management fees (Larry Lindsey thinks this wildly overstates the cost), and retirees will net 2.5 percent, not much of a gain over what the Trust Fund now earns. Never have so many spilt so much ink over so little, or at least so it seems.

Now while Krugman rejects private accounts, Stelzer still thinks they are a good idea. Why? A minor reason is that if you use private accounts to supplement social security instead of substituting it you encourage saving, and that is good for the economy in the long run. The major reason is a different attitude towards risk. Krugman seems to think that the added risk of private accounts isn’t worthwhile. Stelzer on the other hand argues:

with the Social Security safety net intact, individuals could be left free to invest these added savings in any way they choose--safely, in order to add a bit to retirement income, or daringly, in the hope of striking it rich.

The extra risk-taking you get (and the increased freedom to use you money the way you like), seems to me a good thing for the economy too. Of course Krugman wrote about proposals to replace social security with private accounts. I would like to know what his view is about supplementing social security with private accounts. Would he still reject it?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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10/01/2005
The greens get smart (but the bureaucrats not)

Nicholas Kristof in the New York Times quotes spokesmen of WWF and Greenpeace about the use of DDT:

I called the World Wildlife Fund, thinking I would get a fight. But Richard Liroff, its expert on toxins, said he could accept the use of DDT when necessary in anti-malaria programs. "South Africa was right to use DDT," he said. "If the alternatives to DDT aren’t working, as they weren’t in South Africa, geez, you’ve got to use it. In South Africa it prevented tens of thousands of malaria cases and saved lots of lives." At Greenpeace, Rick Hind noted reasons to be wary of DDT, but added: "If there’s nothing else and it’s going to save lives, we’re all for it. Nobody’s dogmatic about it."

Alas, even when we can get the followers of Rachel Carson to admit that DDT can be good, some U.N. agencies will not listen. This while there is a lot of evidence that DDT can save lives, many lives, many lives more than the lives lost in tsunami-hit countries.
(Via Hit and Run)

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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10/01/2005
Ik wil sneeuw! Nu!

Zelfs voor een zelfverklaarde scepticus van Kyoto en "global warming", werd het me vandaag toch even te veel. Bijna midden januari, en voor het zoveelste jaar op rij ziet het er naar uit dat we weeral nauwelijks een sneeuwvlokje te zien gaan krijgen. Het is zelfs de warmste tiende januari sinds het begin van de metingen (wat niet hezelfde is als de warmste tiende januari OOIT, zoals sommige kranten verkeerdelijk melden, ik durf dat sterk te betwijfelen). Ik heb er dan ook genoeg van. Ik wil terug echte winters. Hier is mijn slogan: Weg CO2, sneeuw nu!
(PS. Toegegeven, het kind komt nu in mij boven, de scepticus moet even wijken, maar toch...)

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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10/01/2005
Piracy in China

The United States wants China to crack down hard on infringments of intellectual property rights. Prosecutions and putting people in jail is all what America wants. Kind of very one-sided if you ask me:

China has "got to start putting people in jail" to show it is serious about cracking down on widespread counterfeiting and piracy that costs U.S. companies billions of dollars in lost sales every year, a top Bush administration official said.

In an interview before his fourth and final official trip to China, outgoing U.S. Commerce Secretary Don Evans said he would press Chinese leaders to make sure intellectual property theft of goods ranging from music and films to birth control pills and brake pads is treated as a serious crime.


I’m already troubled by putting people in jail for this kind of acts in a country as the U.S., let alone pressing a harsh dictatorship, which China still is, into doing this. Before you know it they ar going to hang all those people. I think that piracy and counterfeiting is as much a rational economic reaction to high prices and high profits than a crime to be dealt with with harsh punishments. But look at Wal-Mart in China. Prices of cd’s are so low that piracy has become almost unprofitable.

UPDATE

This interesting NYT article notes that Chinese government interests stand behind the trade in counterfeited and pirated goods. While China will try to give the impression that it will crack down hard on infringments, at the same time it has an interest - also from the point of economic development - to take a general attitude of (not always) benign neglect. So pressed by the Americans we will probably see a proliferation of show cases, where one producer uses the power of the government to eliminate a competitior and where the government uses force to protect it’s own interests.

Now having said all this, i truly can understand the worries of the companies who’s goods are being pirated. Cumulative losses for U.S., Japan and Europe are estimated at 80 billion dollar. And there is the issue of innovation, which can be hampered by lax enforcement of IPR’s. On the other hand, prices are higher which can be a life threathening issue. So there are no clear solutions.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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10/01/2005
Convergentie en diversiteit in ICT

De ICT-wereld heeft de laatste tien-vijftien jaar al verschillende hypes achter de rug. Zo was er de hype rond de groei van het internet. Deze hype werd de wereld in gestuurd door de mensen van Worldcom - met als bedoeling de extreem hoge aandelenkoersen te rechtvaardigen. Ze kwam er concreet op neer dat het verkeer op het internet om de 100 dagen verdubbelde. Dat bleek niet te stroken met de feiten: het internetverkeer verdubbelde een keer per jaar. Die groei is ook nog fantastisch te noemen. Maar het was niet hoog genoeg om de hoge verwachtingen in te lossen. En dus werd de hype ingehaald door de minder rooskleurige realiteit. En is Worldcom intussen van de kaart geveegd.

Een andere hype was deze rond de derde generatie mobiele tefefonie, of UMTS. Binnen de kortste keren zou het internet mogelijk worden via GSM, wat een nieuwe boom zou doen ontstaan. Vergetende dat de technologie er nog niet volledig rijp voor was, en vooral, dat er bij de gebruiker wel eens een gebrek aan animositeit zou kunnen zijn hiervoor, boden de telecomoperatoren heel veel geld voor de frequenties. Echter, content is not king: zelfs op het internet via pc wordt connectiviteit (e-mail, filetransfer, persoonlijke communicatie) nog altijd hoger gewaardeerd dan "inhoud". Waarom zou men dan zitten te wachten op multimedia via de GSM? Het versturen van persoonlijke berichtjes of het aangaan van gesprekken lijkt nog altijd de "trigger application" te zijn voor de mobiele telefonie. En dus is de hype alweer voorbij en zijn vele telecomoperatoren door de veilingen van de frequenties in moeilijkheden geraakt.

Wat ik wil zeggen is niet dat de internetgroei onbelangrijk is geweest, of dat UMTS in de toekomst geen succes zal worden. Maar wat intussen wel duidelijk is geworden, is dat er rond bepaalde nieuwe ICT te hoge verwachtingen worden opgewekt die achteraf niet worden, of niet kunnen worden ingelost. Dit is vooral belangrijk naar de overheid toe. Vooraleer op overenthousiaste wijze zich te storten op een of andere nieuwe technologie kan men zich best afvragen of het sop de kool wel waard is.

Neem bijvoorbeeld de digitale televisie. Bij Telenet of Belgacom zal men je vertellen dat hier een nieuw enorm potentieel ontstaat. En daar zit zeker iets in. Niet alleen wordt de langverwachte convergentie tussen het internet en de televisie nu eindelijk een feit, anderzijds zal digitale televisie het instrument worden om de digitale kloof te dichten. Wat dit laatste betreft, hebben de voorstanders zeker een punt. De penetratie van televisie is veel hoger dan een pc, en bovendien zijn er sowieso veel mensen die niet van een computer willen weten of er niet mee kunnen werken. De televisie is voor hen veel gebruiksvriendelijker.

Maar aan de andere kant denk ik dat de convergentie al bij al beperkt zal blijven. Televisie is en blijft een passief medium. De tv staat meestal in de salon of living opgesteld, waar je in je lekkere zetel rustig naar de programma’s kijkt. Er is interactiviteit, via spelletjes waar je aan deelneemt via SMS bvb., of denk aan televoting, maar deze blijft al bij al beperkt. Ik zie het nog niet gebeuren dat we allemaal vlijtig in onze zetel met toetsenbord en muis de digitale televisie gaan bedienen. Ook de technologische convergentie blijft beperkt: de meeste websites zijn nu eenmaal niet geschikt voor gebruik op tv, ze zijn gemaakt voor de pc. Een pc blijft een apparaat dat sterk verschilt van de tv en dat voor andere zaken wordt gebruikt. Het is een apparaat waar je mee werkt, dat een hoge mate van activiteit en inzicht vergt van de gebruiker en dat dan ook meestal in de bureau staat opgesteld.

Van een echte convergentie is dus geen sprake. Wel is het zo dat - en dat is anders in vergelijking met het verleden - de televisie in de komende jaren sterk zal veranderen in zijn toepassingen. De wijze waarom men programma’s bekijkt zal fors veranderen: men zal veel meer controle krijgen over wat men precies wil zien, wanneer en hoe. Als men geen reclame wil, dan zal men zichzelf daar eindelijk van kunnen verlossen. Maar specifieke internettoepassingen op televisie zullen volgens mij al bij al beperkt blijven: e-mail misschien en vormen van communicatie met de overheid: precies twee belangrijke zaken die bijdragen tot het dichten van de digitale kloof. Maar zoiets als file-transfer, peer-to-peer enz...lijkt me in de nabije toekomst bij uitstek een taak voor de pc. Ook de personal computer is aan verandering onderhevig. De mogelijkheden worden meer divers. Specialist Mitch Wagner spreekt van pc’s voor algemeen gebruik, pc’s die dienen voor zeer hoogstaande gespecialiseerde toepassingen en die dus zeer krachtig zijn, en ten slotte kiosken.

In plaats van convergentie lijkt diversiteit de toekomst te zijn in de ICT-sector.

Maar wil je hierover een echte kenner horen, dan kan je nog altijd dit verslag lezen van een toespraak van professor Erik Dejonghe.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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9/01/2005
Straks blijft er niemand meer over in Irak

Toch wel interessant internationaal nieuws. Het nieuwe Oekraiense regime, volgens sommige linkse kringen op sluikse wijze aan de macht gekomen door de machinaties van de regering-Bush (de vrouw van de nieuwe president heeft nog voor de regering-Reagan gewerkt), maakt van de terugtrekking van de Oekraiense troepen uit Irak een prioriteit. Joesjtsjenko voert daarmee versneld uit wat het vorige regime reeds beslist had. Het op democratische wijze aan de macht gekomen regime neemt dus op dit vlak zeker geen pro-Amerikaanse houding aan. Als dat al de bedoeling was van de steun van Bush aan Joesjtsjenko, dan heeft ze duidelijk gefaald. Ofwel is de overspannen complottheorie over de Amerikaanse bemoeienissen in de Okraiene niet meer dan wat ze is...een overspannen theorie.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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9/01/2005
Medische vooruitgang...

Ik ben natuurlijk geen specialist maar als we Het Laatste Nieuws mogen geloven staan we voor een aantal wonderlijke doorbraken in de geneeskunde. Enerzijds een wonderpil die over een tiental jaren hartaanvallen definitief uit de wereld zal helpen, en anderzijds een wonderpil die mensen fit maakt zonder beweging, de spiermassa doet toenemen ongeacht wat men eet en het uithoudingsvermogen verbetert. Wat dat laatste betreft, moet opgemerkt worden dat het om proeven gaat op muizen en dat men niet zomaar de resultaten kan overplanten op mensen. De pil wordt echter al uitgetest op menselijke proefpersonen. Benieuwd wat dit allemaal geeft. Indien de optimisten gelijk krijgen, lijkt het erop dat de levensverwachting in de toekomst (hartaanvallen zijn de belangrijkste doodoorzaak) nog verder fel kan toenemen, dankzij de medische wetenschap. En we zouden wellicht veel luier worden - geen beweging meer nodig. Een lui en zeer lang leven. Voer voor filosofen.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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5/01/2005
Europe the boastfull, America the "stingy"

Europe is boastfull because it’s the most generous giver of aid to the victims of the Tsunami’s, or so they say. However, it seems that those stingy Americans have scored some points the past few days:

Although other countries topped the US aid pledge, the Americans were busy supplementing it with one of the largest military relief operations ever mounted by the Pentagon. The effort featured an aircraft carrier group, an amphibious group, more than 40 helicopters, 20 supply and control aircraft and 12 000 personnel. Photos of US troops providing water and food to desperate Aceh residents went around the world. Wirayuda (foreign minister of Indonesia), whose government has had sometimes delicate ties with Washington, was impressed. "We particularly appreciate the crucial role that the United States armed forces play in providing helicopters for relief assistance for victims and survivors at the remote and isolated areas," he said.

Besides, their are other ways to help, and on some occasions Europe has nothing to boast about. Instead, it should be ashamed:

Countries with relatively strong economies, like Thailand and India, will be able to recover faster from the tsunami disaster than other countries. And impressive trade performance is one of the most important explanations for their strong growth. Opening our markets to their goods would help even more. I just came to think of this when I saw that the EU in the last few weeks has been busy implementing new policies against India and Thailand: It has implemented a penal anti-dumping tariff on coumarin from these countries (3 479 euro per ton).

Eliminating, or at least postponing, this tariff would be a sign that Europe really means it.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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5/01/2005
Bad times for (former) autocrats

Milosevic, the Taliban, Saddam, Viktor Yanukovych and now Pinochet are facing justice in one way or another. It’s not a good time being (or have been) an autocrat:

Chile’s Supreme Court has reversed its historic trend and voted to uphold murder and kidnapping charges against former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet - bringing the bloody butcher of Santiago one step closer to a massive human rights trial."

Who’s next? I can think of some: Henry Kissinger, Vladimir Putin, the Iranian ayatolla&rsquos,...yes, it’s about time we catch Usama Bin Laden or al-Zarqawi, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have to put nothing in the way of the practitioners in state terror.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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5/01/2005
The bad and the good

Bad politics standing in the way of good economics (and good environmentalism). Matthew Yglesias:

Canadians want to sell you cheap wood. Whether or not the availability of this cheap wood is, to some extent, the result of Canadian policy is not the issue. They want to sell it to you. You want to buy it. But George W. Bush won&squo;t let you. Instead, he proposes that we get our wood by making it easier to cut down our nation’s federally protected forestland. Really. That’s the policy. Why let someone else cut down his trees for you, when you could cut down your own trees at greater expense?

Show me a protectionist measure, and we show you someone lobbying for it.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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4/01/2005
Advice on books

Tyler Cowen has read the new doomsday book, Jared Diamond’s, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Here is his response:

In essence Diamond’s book consists of two parts. The first and lengthiest part (416 of 525 text pages) examines how several past societies -- including the Mayans and Easter Island -- met their doom. In every studied case deforestation and soil erosion played important roles. This part of the book could have been published on a stand-alone basis with the title How Poor and Backward Societies Suffer From Deforestation and Ill-Defined Property Rights. Specialists might carp that the material relies on secondary sources, but I found it to be stimulating and informative throughout.

The second part of the book is brief, and details major environmental problems faced today. This includes overpopulation, vanishing energy supplies, the loss of biodiversity, and so on. The material was well-presented but the overall level was not much above what you would find in a good magazine article.

The key to the "meta-book" is Diamond’s claim that part one -- the history of deforestation -- means we should worry more about part two, namely current environmental problems. The meta-book fails.

Yes we should worry about the environment today, but largely because of current data and analysis, not because of past history. If you look at the past, the single overwhelming fact is that all previous environmental problems, at the highest macro level, were overcome. We moved from the squalor of year 1000 to the mixed but impressive successes of 2005, a huge step forward. Environmental problems, however severe, did not prevent this progress. We may not arrive in 3005 with equal ease, but if you are a pessimist you should be concerned with the uniqueness of the contemporary world, not its similarities to the past.

Today’s world is indeed different. We are much wealthier, we have (partially) responsive democratic governments, reasonably effective government regulations, much higher population, an astonishing command over science, we are globally connected, and of course we use resources at a much higher clip. Whether you are an optimist or pessimist about modernity, the history of Greenland or the Pitcairn Islands should not much revise your priors about our future.


The fact remains, if you want to think about our future, read authors who write about the present, or not so distant past, books from people like Bjorn Lomborg, or the late Julian Simon. Of course, those are not doomsday books. But, even if wrong, they are much more relevant.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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4/01/2005
Social security

As a libertarian i’m all for moving the social security system into private accounts, although there are some formidable problems with it, like the issue of administrative costs. It’s not sure that a system of private accounts will be cheaper for a country than the current system of social security. The important thing however is that one should mend those things first that are really broke. From this angle the case of Bush and his fellow conservatives for privatizing social security looks to me extremely weak. Social security is in crisis they say, and if nothing is done it could go bankrupt in 2018. However, even if this is true (it is not), social security will remain in good shape in the future if you compare it with other items like the general budget or Medicare. Angry Bear has two major graphs to illustrate the point. In fact the situation of the general fund and Medicaid is now so bad that the left can say: you don’t need to do anything about social security, just fix the general budget and Medicare and you have enough room to fund social security. The problem for the right is: who caused the general budget and Medicare to be in such a bad shape? Right. There is no other conclusion possible: Bush did the case for privatizing social security a big disservice, so now he has to pretend that it is in crisis. Suppose that social security was in terrific shape. No problem whatsoever. If you could show that even in this situation privatizing it will still be the better solution, then you have a great case. But this is the perfect opposite of the case G.W. Bush is trying to make.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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3/01/2005
Governments, markets and volunteer projects

Brad DeLong compares markets with "distributed volunteer efforts" (open source software) and finds both of them wanting:

Markets are extraordinarily powerful, yes; but in situations of low marginal costs and massive increasing returns they leave enormous amounts of money on the table. Modern technologies open up scope for distributed volunteer efforts to accomplish collective social projects that it would have been impossible to imagine without either the carrot of the market or the stick of the government in past ages, yes; but it is hard to find a durable open source project that doesn’t have a charismatic leader at its head--and for more than a century sociologists have known that truly durable social institutions cannot be based on raw charisma, but must find some way to routinize it so that it doesn’t decay and the sect doesn’t dissolve.

That is, both are very powerfull but not "perfect". For markets, if they were found to be working in an imperfect way (which, according to some, is always the case), the solution was around the corner: government intervention. Those inteventions were heavily resisted by the so-called market fundamentalists. And often they were right: there is something called government failure, so that intervention by the government could and did make things worse. The result of their resistence explains in part why government intervention is in retreat again, at least when economic regulation is concerned (social regulation being another matter). And even with imperfect markets, deregulation worked many times. Still, even now many, if not most economists, would insist that markets need the government, maybe not the interventionist government of the past few decades, but at least a government that defines property rights or provides some general rules.

Now we have open source projects, which to some is an alternative to both the government and the market. And there are open source fundamentalists, who resist any kind of government intervention (apart from governments replacing Microsoft with Linux of course) and who are weary of markets. They don’t want the dead hand of the state nor the greedy hand of big business. And often they are right. Peer-to-peer seems to work wonderfully, and we don’t want government nor the music industry crushing it, don’t we? However, without the intervention of the "enemy", the question of sustainability remains.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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2/01/2005
State of fear

Your first reading assignment for this year.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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