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30/12/2005
Shocking. This is paradise.

This is paradise, according to some of our left-wing friends. Oh no, it’s Fidel Castro’s Cuba.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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30/12/2005
Playing with words

Gene from Harry’s place on Robert Fisk:

Robert Fisk has written a column decrying the failure of American journalists to "tell it like it is" about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He says that "vociferous readers" (a better euphemism than "Zionists," I suppose) have caused a number of US media outlets to use language that downplays the severity of Israeli policies and actions. For instance, instead of calling Jewish settlements in the West Bank "colonies," as Fisk thinks they should, American reporters choose such wimpy alternatives as "settlements" or "outposts." Similarly "occupied territory" becomes "disputed territory" and a "wall" becomes a "fence" or a "barrier." Now we’ve had many discussions here about politicized word choices, and I’m sure Fisk can provide detailed arguments for why his favored words are always the most precise. But I find it ironic that this is the same Robert Fisk who routinely refers to Palestinian terrorists with quotation marks around "terrorists." So it appears that for Fisk, the most damning words are always appropriate for Israeli behavior but never for Palestinian behavior.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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28/12/2005
Beware what you wish for, David.

Bob Geldof will become the new consiliery for the Conservatives on the question of global poverty. Yes, that’s right: the Conservatives. They are really determined to give themselves a human and social face it seems.

But are the Tories sure they wanna go ahead with Bob Geldof as an advisor on global poverty? Obviously he has "an enormous knowledge and expertise" on making rich people pay for the poor in the world - with or without the intervention of the government. But is it the right kind of expertise and knowledge for making poverty really history?

Has the Tory party leader, David Cameron, never read this, then? If not, he really should:

Geldof remains unimpressed by the idea that the aid he helped to raise was used in ways that may have cost as many lives - in MSF’s view, more - as were saved. He has never been drawn on whether MSF’s accusations were right or wrong. As far as he is concerned, Live Aid raised a lot of money and used that money to feed people who would have starved. Live Aid, Geldof would say later, had been "almost perfect in what it achieved". In the context of such near perfection, raising the issue of resettlement looks ungrateful. As Geldof put it to one interviewer: "If Live Aid had existed during the second world war, and if we’d heard that there were people dying in concentration camps, would we have refused to bring food and assistance to those camps? Of course not!"

Geldof was presumably unaware when he responded that the question of the collusion between the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the Nazi regime remains one of the great controversies in the humanitarian world. The ICRC was indeed aware of the Nazi death camps. But it decided that its ability to fulfil its mandate of assisting prisoners of war would have been endangered by public acknowledgment of Auschwitz. Today, the official line of the ICRC is that its actions during the second world war were a tragic mistake - that faced by the radical evil of the concentration camps, the organisation should have defied its own norms of neutrality and confidentiality and spoken out.

With the exception of MSF, what neither the relief world, nor the UN, nor Geldof have ever come to terms with is that the Mengistu regime - ousted in 1991 - also committed mass murder in the resettlement programme in which Live Aid monies were used and in which NGOs using Live Aid funds were active. The Dergue was in control, and it did with the UN and the NGOs what the Nazis did with the ICRC: it made them unwilling collaborators.

Geldof has proclaimed that Live 8 is about "social justice, not charity". That is certainly an improvement from the simplicities of the original Live Aid. But simplicities still abound. Showing a film from Ethiopia in 1985 at a press conference, Geldof said the famine was "still going on". He also insisted that "the G8 leaders have it within their power to alter history". It would be great if it were that simple, just as it would have been great if the effect of Live Aid on the ground in Ethiopia had been simple, or entirely benign. But it wasn’t true then and, though the Dergue is mercifully gone, it isn’t true now.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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27/12/2005
Cuba tegen de V.S.: go ahead

Cuba en de V.S. blijken mekaar niet onaardig te vinden over Guantanamo:

Ondanks de heftige spanningen tussen Cuba en de VS voelt het eerste land blijkbaar niets voor een diplomatiek conflict rond het niemandsland tussen de basis en Cubaans grondgebied. Het niemandsland lig vol landmijnen en prikkeldraad en is 117 vierkante kilometer groot. Een Cubaanse woordvoerder zei: ’ Dit is een heel gevoelige zone waar twee vijanden al tientallen jaren tegenover elkaar staan.’ Hoewel de verbale strijd over Guantanamo vaak scherp is, wordt door beide landen grote voorzichtigheid betracht. Vlak na de terrorisme-acties in New York zei vice-president Raúl Castro geen overwegende bezwaren te hebben tegen het feit dat de VS terrorisme-verdachten in Guantanamo opsloot. Hoewel Havana de behandeling van gevangen door de VS in Guantanamo en de gevangenis van Abu Ghraib omschreef als ‘fascistisch’ werken Cubaanse en Amerikaanse militairen buiten en op de basis nauw samen, ondermeer door telefonische contacten, om de stabiliteit te bewaren.
Zijn de V.S. eigenlijk wel zeker dat ze Fidel Castro willen omver werpen?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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27/12/2005
It’s deregulation, stupid!

Sceptics might finally be convinced that we, at the least that the United States, has a new economy. Productivity growth remains robust and it’s spreading all over the economy, and not just a few sectors. And it’s services, not manufacturing that’s taking the lead, which is another sign of having a new economy I guess:

In the late 1990’s, McKinsey found that six of the economy’s 59 sectors accounted for virtually all productivity growth. Among the biggest contributors were new-economy industries like telecommunications, computer manufacturing and semiconductors. But from 2000 to 2003, the top seven sectors accounted for only 75 percent of the productivity increase. And five of the top contributors were service industries, including retail trade, wholesale trade and financial services. That is surprising, since economists have generally believed that it is much harder for service industries to reap sharp productivity gains than it is for manufacturers.
Now what’s the source of this continuing high performing U.S. economy? Is it technology? Research and development? After all the relatively weak performance of Europe vis-a-vis the U.S. seems to be the result of the lack investement in r&d and technology no? It certainly has something to do with it, but other factors could well play a bigger and more important role. What about regulation?

One mystery of recent years has been the enduring gap in productivity growth between the United States and Europe. In this case, another structural force - regulation - may be at work. "In economies with less regulation, companies can use information communications technology that link sectors to one another in ways that create joint productivity," said Gail Fosler, executive vice president and chief economist at the Conference Board.

Because domestic retailers don’t face the same sorts of restrictions on working hours and road use that European retailers do, for example, the Americans have been better able to use technology to manage trucking fleets, deliveries and inventory.

The encouraging news, some economists say, is that a major breakthrough in information technology is not required to fuel further productivity growth. "It’s not research and development that cause the big gains in productivity," Professor Jorgenson said. "The real drivers are things like competition, deregulation, the opening of markets and globalization."
Our European leaders have chosen to concentrate on technology and reseach. It’s the safest choice. After all, nobody is really against more investment in r&d. (Then again, one might ask, why then is it so difficult to close the gap with the U.S.? A good question.)

A policy of stimulating competition, of deregulation, of opening markets is a much more difficult choice - witness the fate of the Bolkestein-directive in services - as politicians seem to think that this wil be the end of the European social model.

They may be right in this. Nevertheless, it seems the right choice. Because one thing is for sure: you can’t save the European social modal with a defunct economic one.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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26/12/2005
A good year for freedom

Good news from Freedom House. Last year was a good year for freedom. And it was a good year especially in the muslim world. Here is a report:

Eight countries plus the Palestinian Authority, not yet officially a country, moved up — either from "not free" to "partly free" or from "partly free" to "free." Four countries moved down. In all, this made it a good year for freedom.

But here’s the really interesting part. Of the nine countries that improved their ratings, no fewer than six are Muslim countries. Indonesia moved from "partly free" to "free," while Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Mauritania and the Palestinian Authority moved from "not free" to "partly free." Of the four countries that became less free in 2005, none was a Muslim country.

To anyone who has followed the Freedom House data year to year, these changes are remarkable. Since the fall of Portugal’s military dictatorship in 1974, a tide of freedom and democracy has washed over the globe. Every region has recorded strong gains, including even such a poor and troubled area as sub-Saharan Africa and the socially mutilated lands of the former Soviet empire. But until this year, the Muslim world had remained a stubborn exception.
How much of the credit for this goes to the policies of G.W. Bush? I honostly don’t know. But the fact that it’s happening for the first time now, and only now, during the reign of Bush and after the war in Iraq should provide some clues.

Twenty years ago two big parts of the world were stuck with antidemocratic system. It was under right-wing Republican presidents Reagan and Bush that the communist system crushed and burned. They presided over the first big democratic wave. And now it seems that a second big wave is coming up. And again it’s happening under a right-wing Republican idiot, er, president.

Why is it that freedom seems to have such good years under right-wing presidents? Food for thought for our left-wing friends.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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25/12/2005
Improvement needed

Economists from the left and right tend to have the same view about the economic policies of G.W. Bush. That is bad on deficits and spending, but rather good on trade policy. Nevertheless the global view is rather negative:

If the Bush agenda were going to score high marks anywhere, you’d think it would be at the University of Chicago, long known for its conservative bent on economics. But when the Tribune turned toward Hyde Park for a year-end assessment of the president’s fiscal management, the graders weren’t inclined to cut Bush much slack. The last time we did something like this--right before the 2004 presidential election--Bush got much higher marks. But after lots of unchecked spending and stalled momentum on big issues like Social Security, this year’s panel of three prominent economists with ties to the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business turned out to be fairly tough critics. That’s partly because we recruited graders from across the political spectrum. Edward Snyder, dean of Chicago’s business school, leans right but has a strong independent streak. The same could be said of former Reagan economic adviser Michael Mussa, a onetime U. of C. Graduate School of Business professor and chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, who is now a senior fellow at the Institute of International Economics. Hailing from the left is economics professor Austan Goolsbee, an avowed Democrat and an informal adviser to the Kerry campaign in last year’s election. While conservative economists like Mussa and Snyder say the president’s tax cuts and stimulus package helped lay the foundation for the current economic expansion, they tend to join Goolsbee in lamenting that the administration’s lack of spending discipline is mortgaging the nation’s future.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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24/12/2005
Friedman to Bush: get lost

Here is David Friedman, son of Milton:

Libertarians still tend to identify with the Republican party. Save for historical reasons, it is hard to see why. The current administration, despite its free market rhetoric, has been no better--arguably worse--than its predecessor on economic issues. Its policy on public schooling, the largest governent run industry in the U.S., has been a push towards more central control, not less. Its support for free trade has been at best intermittant. Reductions in taxes have been matched by increases in government spending, increasing, not shrinking, the real size and cost of government. It has been strikingly bad on civil liberties. Its Supreme Court nominees have not been notably sympathetic to libertarian views of the law. Libertarians disagree among themselves on foreign policy, but many support a generally non-interventionist approach and so find themselves unhappy with the Iraq war.
I’m not unhappy with the Iraq war. There is a profound libertarian case to be made, i think, for removing dictators. But for the rest, it seems that Friedman has it completely right here. Libertarians have every reason to be dismayed by the Republican party, and the current administration. The question of course remains if the Democrats are better. Friedman has some suggestions on this aswell:

The obvious solution to both sets of problems is for the Democrats to try to pull the libertarian faction out of the Republican party. How large that faction is is hard to judge, but it is clearly a lot larger than the vote of the Libertarian Party would suggest. The current administration’s use of pro-market rhetoric suggests that it, at least, believes that a significant fraction of its base cares about such things. The conversion of a mere ten percent of current Republicans into Democrats would strikingly alter the current political balance. How can the Democrats appeal to libertarian Republicans without alienating their own base? Support for school vouchers would meet the former requirement--but in a party where public school teachers make up one of the most powerful interest groups, it is unfortunately not a viable option. I think I have an answer. In 2004, Montana went for Bush by a sizable margin. It also voted in medical marijuana, by an even larger margin. Legalizing medical marijuana is a policy popular with libertarians, acceptable to Democrats, and opposed by the current administration. At the very least, prominent Democrats should come out in favor of the federal government respecting state medical marijuana laws, as it has so far refused to do. Better yet, let them propose a federal medical marijuana law. That will send a signal to a considerable number of voters that, at least on this issue, one of the parties is finally on their side. It would be a beginning.
Food for thought. (But i’m going to postpone the thinking till 2006).

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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24/12/2005
My wish for 2006? More big bad capitalists (but maybe not Microsoft)

Ok. Wal-Mart are big bad capitalists, but what they do is good. Good for the poor:

Consumers often benefit from increased competition in differentiated product settings. In this paper we consider consumer benefits from increased competition in a differentiated product setting: the spread of non-traditional retail outlets. In this paper we estimate consumer benefits from supercenter entry and expansion into markets for food. We estimate a discrete choice model for household shopping choice of supercenters and traditional outlets for food. We have panel data for households so we can follow their shopping patterns over time and allow for a fixed effect in their shopping behavior. We find the benefits to be substantial, both in terms of food expenditure and in terms of overall consumer expenditure. Low income households benefitthe most.
We defenitely need more of those big bad capitalists, not less.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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23/12/2005
Everything made a sound, except the horn

A funny story about the benefits of competition and the perils of protectionism. The final nail in the coffin of the infant industry argument:

Both Hindustan Motors of India and Toyota of Japan began production around the same time, and faced similar challenges as they sought to grow as companies.

And yet there were some crucial differences in the respective cultures, political and economic environments within which these companies existed.

The results of over a half-century of competing philosophies and circumstances are starkly evident in some of these highlights:

At the Hindustan Motors plant near Calcutta, over 11,000 workers make 18,000 Ambassadors a year. At the Toyota City Lexus factory ouside Tokyo, 66 workers helped by robots produce over 100,000 cars a year.

Until the 1980s almost every car sold in India was an Ambassador. In the following decade, as India’s closed auto market was opened up and auto sales doubled, the market share for the Ambassador shrank to less than 5%. Meanwhile, Toyota continues to be a world leader in the automobile industry. Why such an astounding disparity in results? The answers may lie in the controls, regulations, protections and licensing requirements under which Hindustan Motors has operated in India.

While Toyota has competed on the global market, Hindustan Motors spent much of its corporate history sheltered from competition.

The Ambassador is based on a 1950s British model and the design has stayed essentially unchanged ever since. Although Hindustan Motors is now investing $43.5 million to revamp its workhorse, the changes hold little promise for the survival of the company. Similar investments in the past few years have produced little results.

The Ambassador, like Hindustan Motors, is a dinosaur from an era in which there was no need to improve, innovate, and improve productivity.

Writing from Uttarpara, site of the Hindustan Motors plant near Calcutta, New York Times reporter Barry Bearak writes, "Streets in India are an extraordinary sight for two reasons, one of them the cows that wander sacredly and indifferently through traffic, the other an antiquated-looking automobile with a bowler hat of a roof called the Ambassador. Little in the look of the car has changed during its 41 years on the road."

He continues that "until the early 1980s, most every car sold in India was an Ambassador, and, for its manufacturer, Hindustan Motors Ltd., this was clearly too much of a good thing. Near monopoly conditions led to lingering corporate somnolence."

When the Indian government opened its auto market to competition in the 1990s, Indian drivers migrated en masse to smaller, sleeker, and better made cars.

While the Ambassador, now priced at around $8,000, has always been a very easy car to keep running, the ride is bumpy and the manufacturing quality is poor. Indians often joke that everything in the Ambassador makes a sound except the horn.

Over the years, little was done to streamline production or attend to quality control. "A fresh-from-the-factory Ambassador already could be a rattletrap with doors that did not quite fit and windows that allowed water to seep in around the edges", wrote Bearak.

Faced with imminent extinction, Hindustan Motors has been scrambling to cut costs and improve quality. But the resistance to change can be formidable.

The bloated workforce is heavily unionized, and any attempts at restructuring the work week or laying off any of the 11,000 workers have met with fierce opposition.

The company has gone ahead with its plans to operate with a reduced work week, but without government approval, it must continue to pay the workers their full wages. The price tag: losses of over $25 million and counting in the past year.

The West Bengal labor department rejected the company’s proposed retrenchment plan as "absurd," issuing a decision that chastised management for inefficiency.

As far as the bureaucrats and unions are concerned, the company’s financial woes are the results of "poor management." There may be truth to this claim, but a stalemate between management and labor may result in the loss of all 11,000 if the company shuts down.

"The car has so many benefits - its so big it can be used as a mobile office," says Hindustan Motors’ chief executive. "On Indian roads, where safety is a big issue, it’s rugged. Mechanically, it is unlikely to fail. If it does, any mechanic in India knows how to fix it."

But, as reporter Barry Bearak has written that the "final virtue - the Ambassador’s ease of repair - may in the end prove its undoing as much as any cheaper, faster and flashier competitors."

One Indian mechanic says, "What goes on inside an Ambassador is simple to understand, no electric parts that no one’s ever seen before. You can fix anything with a hammer and a wrench. Six-year-olds can do it."

In Calcutta and most other big cities, there are entire markets where dozens of resourceful mechanics not only sell used Ambassador parts but home-made "knock-offs" ones as well.

These copies are cut-rate. An entirely "new" Ambassador body can be bought for $350, an entire shiny "new" car for under $1,000.

"I can take a 1960 Ambassador and make it look and run the same as an Ambassador just out of the factory," the mechanic says. "The Ambassador never changes. Why would anyone buy a new one?"

Meanwhile, in July 2002, Toyota Motors celebrated the ten millionth vehicle manufactured in North America alone, at a ceremony at its Erlanger, Ky. facility, the headquarters of Toyota’s manufacturing operations in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Bonus question: which car would be better for the environment? Toyota or Ambassador?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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23/12/2005
An ambitious trade deal

Maybe he was wrong for trying to turn the European Union in just a free trade area. Maybe. But surely he is right for trying to turn the whole world into a genuine free trade area. I even can forgive him his blind devotion towards aid (hey, he’s still a socialist of course) after reading this. Tony Blair on globalization:

Occasionally we debate globalisation as if it were something imposed by Governments or business on unwilling people. Wrong. It is the individual decisions of millions of people that is creating and driving globalisation. Globalisation isn’t something done to us. It is something we are, consciously or unconsciously doing to and for ourselves. ...There are some who argue that the poor will lose from an ambitious liberalising round. Far better to continue to offer them preferences - an old form of welfare. In one sense they are right. In the short term they may loose from some changes to the preference system if we do not take other actions. But ultimately the preference system is not the way forward. They stand to gain far more if we are bold; if we are confident; if we are ambitious. Developing countries could gain $47 billion in increased agricultural exports. We know the current system of preferences is not helping Africa. African trade with the EU has fallen over thirty years under the Lome and Cotonou Preferences. We also do not give enough market access to larger developing countries including countries like Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa who are not LDCs. Yet the blunt reality is that it is they who will drive African economic recovery. And most of the world’s poor live in India and China. They will benefit from an ambitious trade deal too.
But the Conservative opposition does it even better. Here is Andrew Mitchell, the UK’s Shadow Development Secretary:

The clock is ticking on the Doha round. This is a race against time. We have to act before President Bush’s negotiating mandate runs out in mid-2007. President Bush has thrown down the gauntlet with his commitments on reducing global tariffs. But Europe has stuck its head in the sand. If Europe does not do more, the noble aim to ‘make poverty history’ in 2005 will have been sold down the river. As every schoolchild knows, if you haven’t done your homework, you aren’t going to get a good mark in the class test. And the failure of Europe to do its homework before Hong Kong means that real success here is unlikely to be forthcoming. The EU’s intransigence has placed the credibility of the WTO in mortal peril. Should the Doha Round fail, countries will be left to make preferential agreements. Unlike multilateral WTO agreements, such agreements discriminate against those not party to them. They would most likely exclude Africa – the countries we want to help the most. So if we want the best trading system possible for the world’s poorest, then we need to do more to make the Doha Development Round a success. As part of this, we must win the battle of ideas on trade. Conservatives believe that free trade is fair trade. We believe that poor people, not their politicians, should be free to choose where they buy their goods and services. If they want to buy cheaper goods from abroad, and spend the money they save on food or medicines, they should be free to do so. Free trade facilitates voluntary co-operation between people all over the world. It is blind to race, creed or religion. It trade increases the range of goods available to people. It allows countries to specialise in what they produce most efficiently, thus leading to greater wealth creation.
Jee, they seem to have smart politicians in Britain.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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22/12/2005
The ultimate rogue state

France don’t want to cut into it’s subsidies to farmers thus endangering progress in the European Union and towards a genuine free trade agreement in the WTO. And it don’t want to open up it’s borders for foreign (read: American) cultural products. Yet, it always gets away with it. If the negotations about the European budget had failed, it would have been the fault of the British. And of course protecting it’s own culture is just plain common sense isn’t it? Here it is the U.S. that is the black sheep:

In October the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization voted 148 to 2 to pass a Convention on the Protection and Promotion of the Diversity of Cultural Expressions, giving participant countries unspecified authority to “take all appropriate measures to protect and preserve cultural expressions”—widely interpreted to mean protection from U.S. movies and television. Israel and the United States alone voted against, four countries abstained, and the minister of culture from France (which, with Canada, co-sponsored the initiative) bragged that “we are no longer the black sheep” in the fight against “cultural invasion.” The United Kingdom’s delegate called the vote against American culture “a great day for UNESCO,” saying the two countries had “agreed to disagree.”
There is no question that by protecting it’s agriculture France is hurting many poor farmers and countries in the world. And by protecting it’s culture from a "foreign invasion" the French government is hurting it’s own people:

At the same moment France’s culture apparatchik voted to keep Hollywood out, his countrymen were voting very differently with their euros: They made Dreamworks’ Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit the top French film two weeks running. Among France’s other hits of 2005: Bewitched, Fantastic Four, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, and Star Wars: Episode III. (French audiences still have a nose for neglected American gems: Jim Jarmusch’s Broken Flowers, a relative nonperformer stateside, spent two weeks atop the French box office.) And France’s partner in cultural protection? Canadians this year doffed their toques to American fare such as Doom, Flightplan, Four Brothers, and Wedding Crashers. U.K. audiences liked all the above plus The Longest Yard, The Dukes of Hazard, and The Ring Two. This is not to engage in national chest-thumping—irrelevant given that every major Hollywood release is to some extent an international co-production. Nick Park’s British-to-the-bone Wallace and Gromit is a Hollywood film only in its studio. The Ring franchise remade an inventive series of Japanese originals. The biggest losers of a downturn in Hollywood production—beyond Los Angeles itself—would be the film boards of Toronto and Vancouver, Hollywood’s favorite locations. (The UNESCO plan has more sinister implications as well: The U.S. argues that dictators could use the Convention to keep subversive content away from their populations.)
The U.S. is absolutely right on this last thing. France: the ultimate rogue state.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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22/12/2005
Beware for progressives

Fine group Coldplay. And of course it’s leadsinger is a progessive who has his heart in the right place. He is for vastly increasing aid for poor countries, for "fair trade", and against global warming. There are two problems however: where his brain is situated is less clear, and he’s a hypocrite:

Coldplay singer Chris Martin is always going on about global warming. Fair enough - if listening to him hectoring us about scarce resources and carbon emissions is what it takes to conserve the planet then it’s a price worth paying. But what if he’s a big fat hypocrite? Coldplay frontman Chris Martin avoided serious injury when his BMW X5 hit another car in London yesterday December 19. Martin had a minor shunt on a busy road near Belsize Park. Nobody was hurt. Martin’s actress wife Gwyeth Paltrow is also thought to have been in the vehicle. These things do between 12 (city) and 21 (motorway) miles to the gallon.
Aah. Progressives. They are such easy targets sometimes.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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22/12/2005
Come clean G.W.

Frankly I’m a fan of G.W. Bush. But that does not mean he can do whatever he wants. A little distrust towards government always is warranted, even in time of war. Especially in time of war. Tim Dunlop writes:

The simple fact is, if Bush had wanted to gather this surveillance legally, all he had to do was to make an application to a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court. This court has, throughout its history, granted such applications in all but four instances. What’s more, it is incredibly easy to get such permission (...) The only time a FISA court is likely to refuse permission--remember, they don’t require evidence or probable cause--is if the request was so tenuous, that is, had no likely bearing on protecting the populace, or was sought to watch people who could not reasonably be considered a risk or likely to bear watching. So the fact is, Bush could have easily got the legal cover he needed to allow this surveillance if he wanted it. The only reason he would not have sought such permission is if he thought it would likely be rejected by a FISA court. The only reason a FISA court would reject such a request is if the request was so far outside the bounds of relevance that they had no choice but to reject it. The question George W. Bush therefore needs to answer is: which citizens were you spying on such that you considered it unlikely that a FISA court would grant you permission? Who were you spying on that you thought that even the relatively lax standards of a FISA court would be too restrictive?
These are questions i want answers for. I can’t imagine that FISA would not give the permission if there was even the slightest reason to suspect it concerned people with possible connections with terrorism. The fact that Bush did not asked permission gives at least the impression that he was NOT spying on possible terrorists. Now I’m willing to grant government a lot of weapons in the fight against terrorism in order to secure it’s people their safety. But again there is the impression that those weapons were not used for that. And I’m not willing to give up my freedoms to gain nothing in safety.

Time for Bush to come clean.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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22/12/2005
The idiocy of economic nationalism

Yep, Bolivia has turned left, which is in part good and in part bad. Good because the new president wants to end the war on drugs. Bad because he is an economic nationalist who wants to nationalize the commanding heights of the economy, starting with the energy sector. The problem here (or maybe it’s a silver lining) is that he is not hurting the big bad Yankee capitalists (apparently not one U.S. multinational is on the list of companies to be nationalized) but his own brothers in arms. The top foreign investor in Bolivia is a Brazilian oil company. And Brazil is led by a former union boss and leftish president.

So is new Bolivian president effectively saying here that the real bad folks are not those ugly Yanks, but his third world neighbours and ideological friends? How can you be at the same time an economic nationalist and yearning for international solidarity?

In any case it shows again that ultimately economic nationalism is a self-defeating strategy. If developing countries really as a group want to have a say in this world surely a better way to follow would be to develop their own multinational companies that can compete with those from the West. But that’s not easy when there are countries who only want to dismember and break up the few multinatinal companies the developing world has.

Meanwhile, the Chinese and the Indians are all smiles.

Daniel Drezner has more.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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21/12/2005
Rogue presidents

Is the U.S. a rogue state? Maybe. Maybe not. But certainly it has had many rogue presidents, leaders who violated the constitution and who showed utter contempt for Congress:

when one thinks of bad behavior leading down the road to possible impeachment, Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon come to mind first. Although Bill Clinton was impeached for having sex with an intern and then lying about it to a grand jury, a better case could have been made to impeach him for conducting an unconstitutional war over Kosovo without approval by Congress. The articles of Nixon’s impeachment centered on his use of illegal surveillance methods against political opponents and obstruction of justice and contempt of Congress in covering it up. His launching of an unconstitutional war in Cambodia without congressional approval was equally serious, but was left out of the articles. Curiously, Lyndon Johnson, Nixon’s predecessor, also used illegal surveillance activities against political rivals, but was not impeached.

Ronald Reagan, who is now a celebrated past president and icon of conservatives, justifiably feared impeachment for the Iran-Contra affair. He knowingly violated the Arms Export Control Act, a criminal statute, and sold arms to radical supporters of terrorists. His administration also unconstitutionally violated a congressional prohibition on providing money and support to the Nicaraguan Contra fighters. The Reagan administration’s violation of the Boland Amendment stuck a knife in the heart of the checks and balances system in the U.S. Constitution by circumventing Congress’s most important power—the appropriation of public monies.
But the roguest of the all appears to be G.W. Bush:

the Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution essentially says that the people have the right to be secure against unreasonable government searches and seizures and that no search warrants shall be issued without probable cause that a crime has been committed. And the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) requires that warrants for national security wiretaps be authorized by the secret FISA court. The law says that it is a crime for government officials to conduct electronic surveillance outside the exclusive purviews of that law or the criminal wiretap statute. President Bush’s authorization of the monitoring of Americans’ e-mails and phone calls by the National Security Agency (NSA) without even the minimal protection of FISA court warrants is clearly unconstitutional and illegal. Executive searches without judicial review violate the unique checks and balances that the nation’s founders created in the U.S. government and are a considerable threat to American liberty. Furthermore, surveillance of Americans by the NSA, an intelligence service rather than a law enforcement agency, is a regression to the practices of the Vietnam-era, when intelligence agencies were misused to spy on anti-war protesters—another impeachable violation of peoples’ constitutional rights by LBJ and Nixon.

President Bush defiantly admits initiating such flagrant domestic spying but contends that the Congress implicitly authorized such activities when it approved the use of force against al Qaeda and that such actions fit within his constitutional powers as commander-in-chief. But the founders never intended core principles of the Constitution to be suspended during wartime. In fact, they realized that it was in times of war and crisis that constitutional protections of the people were most at risk of usurpation by politicians, who purport to defend American freedom while actually undermining it.

The Bush administration’s FBI has also expanded its use of national security letters to examine the personal records of tens of thousands of Americans who are not suspected of being involved in terrorism or even illegal acts.

Apparently the president is also taking us back to the Vietnam era by monitoring anti-war protesters. Information on peaceful anti-war demonstrations has apparently found its way into Pentagon databases on possible threats to U.S. security.

Finally, the president’s policies on detainees in the “war on terror” probably qualify as impeachable offenses. The Bush administration decided that the “war on terror” exempted it from an unambiguous criminal law and international conventions (which are also the law of the land) preventing torture and inhumane treatment of prisoners. An American president permitting torture is both disgraceful and ineffective in getting good information from those held. Furthermore, the administration concocted the fictitious category of “enemy combatants” to deprive detainees of the legal protections of either the U.S. courts or “prisoner-of-war” status. The administration then tried to detain these enemy combatants, some of them American citizens, indefinitely without trial, access to counsel, or the right to have courts to review their cases.


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21/12/2005
Intelligent verdict

The court has spoken. Intelligent design is creationism in disguise. It’s not science but religion and should not be teached in biology class:

In making this determination, we have addressed the seminal question of whether ID is science. We have concluded that it is not, and moreover that ID cannot uncouple itself from its creationist, and thus religious, antecedents. Both Defendants and many of the leading proponents of ID make a bedrock assumption which is utterly false. Their presupposition is that evolutionary theory is antithetical to a belief in the existence of a supreme being and to religion in general. Repeatedly in this trial, Plaintiffs’ scientific experts testified that the theory of evolution represents good science, is overwhelmingly accepted by the scientific community, and that it in no way conflicts with, nor does it deny, the existence of a divine creator. To be sure, Darwin’s theory of evolution is imperfect. However, the fact that a scientific theory cannot yet render an explanation on every point should not be used as a pretext to thrust an untestable alternative hypothesis grounded in religion into the science classroom or to misrepresent well-established scientific propositions. The citizens of the Dover area were poorly served by the members of the Board who voted for the ID Policy. It is ironic that several of these individuals, who so staunchly and proudly touted their religious convictions in public, would time and again lie to cover their tracks and disguise the real purpose behind the ID Policy. With that said, we do not question that many of the leading advocates of ID have bona fide and deeply held beliefs which drive their scholarly endeavors. Nor do we controvert that ID should continue to be studied, debated, and discussed. As stated, our conclusion today is that it is unconstitutional to teach ID as an alternative to evolution in a public school science classroom. Those who disagree with our holding will likely mark it as the product of an activist judge. If so, they will have erred as this is manifestly not an activist Court. Rather, this case came to us as the result of the activism of an ill-informed faction on a school board, aided by a national public interest law firm eager to find a constitutional test case on ID, who in combination drove the Board to adopt an imprudent and ultimately unconstitutional policy. The breathtaking inanity of the Board’s decision is evident when considered against the factual backdrop which has now been fully revealed through this trial. The students, parents, and teachers of the Dover Area School District deserved better than to be dragged into this legal maelstrom, with its resulting utter waste of monetary and personal resources.


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20/12/2005
Impeach the president. In fact, impeach all presidents.

Brad DeLong points to a Newsweek article about the disgusting behaviour of G.W. Bush:

No wonder Bush was so desperate that The New York Times not publish its story on the National Security Agency eavesdropping on American citizens without a warrant, in what lawyers outside the administration say is a clear violation of the 1978 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. I learned this week that on December 6, Bush summoned Times publisher Arthur Sulzberger and executive editor Bill Keller to the Oval Office in a futile attempt to talk them out of running the story. The Times will not comment on the meeting, but one can only imagine the president’s desperation.

The problem was not that the disclosures would compromise national security, as Bush claimed at his press conference. His comparison to the damaging pre-9/11 revelation of Osama bin Laden’s use of a satellite phone, which caused bin Laden to change tactics, is fallacious; any Americans with ties to Muslim extremists—in fact, all American Muslims, period—have long since suspected that the U.S. government might be listening in to their conversations. Bush claimed that “the fact that we are discussing this program is helping the enemy.” But there is simply no evidence, or even reasonable presumption, that this is so. And rather than the leaking being a “shameful act,” it was the work of a patriot inside the government who was trying to stop a presidential power grab.

No, Bush was desperate to keep the Times from running this important story—which the paper had already inexplicably held for a year—because he knew that it would reveal him as a law-breaker. He insists he had “legal authority derived from the Constitution and congressional resolution authorizing force.” But the Constitution explicitly requires the president to obey the law. And the post 9/11 congressional resolution authorizing “all necessary force” in fighting terrorism was made in clear reference to military intervention. It did not scrap the Constitution and allow the president to do whatever he pleased in any area in the name of fighting terrorism.
Ok, it becomes increasingly clear that this guy should be out of the White House as soon as possible. The Iraqi’s i suppose can manage on their own. Then again, the liberal opposition could use some more consistency, as reader Paul points out in comments:

Former President Clinton also used the Echelon program to fight economic espionage. He also used the program to track white supremists following the Oklahoma City bombing. Carnivore anybody? Funny how a Democrat uses this type of power and its OK, but when a Republican uses it, then all hell breaks loose. The hypocricy never ends with you liberals. Unbelievable. I hope the Justice Department finds out who leaked this story and presses charges for TREASON. Playing dirty politics with our national security is disgusting, and I am flabbergasted that even the most reasonable liberal, if one actually exists, doesn’t call this out like it is; dirty politics. You liberals have become a Fifth Column in our country. We’ve got the War Against Terrorism abroad, and the War Against Liberalism at home. We’re winning both wars, and you’re gonna get your butts kicked again at the election polls next year.
A little over the top maybe, but nevertheless: Impeach G.W. Bush. And impeach Bill Clinton. Do it now.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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16/12/2005
Looking for carrots

Priority reading this. After all, I like the argument:

Like it or not,we live in a world characterised by scarce resources. All decisions have costs and tradeoffs, and people make decisions about what costs to bear and which tradeoffs to make, and how, in response to incentives. It is here that social science – specifically, economics – can make an important contribution to the climate debate.

The book’s contributors argue that
• The world’s poorest people are most vulnerable to climate – that is to say, they suffer because of the prevailing weather, not changes in the climate per se.
• Global agreements that seek by government fiat to restrict greenhouse gas emissions are costly, ineffective against climate-sensitive problems, and would perpetuate poverty. In short, they are unsustainable.
• A more cost-effective, and more humane, solution is to tackle today’s problems which may be exacerbated by climate change – including malaria, food production, biodiversity loss, water shortages, coastal flooding and other problems.
• A broad adaptive strategy would not only provide insurance against climate sensitive problems, but it would have spill-over benefits for achieving sustainable development. The UK government’s own climate studies support this approach.
• In the 20th century, attempts to plan national economies failed dismally, destroyed the environment and harmed millions of people. Climate control by global and national governments would likely have the same consequences.
• The primary long-term solution to climate vulnerability is for all countries to adopt institutional frameworks, including decentralised government, that encourage innovation, foster enterprise and enable individuals to develop strategies and technologies to cope with changing circumstances.


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16/12/2005
Sites van het jaar

Naar jaarlijkse gewoonte hebben de lezers van het magazine Clickx gekozen voor de site van het jaar. Voor de derde keer op rij gaat de hoofdprijs naar Google. In dezelfde categorie Professionele Sites werd Seniorennet tweede en Kinepolis derde.

Er werd ook een klassement van amateursites opgemaakt. Winnaar hier is tuinadvies.be. Bij de blogsites ten slotte schoot wereldkeuken.be de hoofdvogel af.

De lijstjes vind je hier.

Aan allen uiteraard een dikke proficiat.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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16/12/2005
This is also America

Kudos to right-wing Republican Senator John McCain:

President Bush reversed course on Thursday and accepted Sen. John McCain’s call for a law banning cruel, inhumane and degrading treatment of foreign suspects in the war on terror. Bush said the agreement will "make it clear to the world that this government does not torture and that we adhere to the international convention of torture, whether it be here at home or abroad." "It’s a done deal," said McCain, talking to reporters in a driving rain outside the White House.


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16/12/2005
Europe: the lights are getting out

Edward Hugh observes that spending on r&d is further falling behind target in Europe and comments:

It is doubly not very encouraging due to a point made in a paper which Brad Setser points us to. The paper is the U.S. and Global Imbalances: Can Dark Matter Prevent a Big Bang? by Ricardo Hausmann and Fredrico Sturzenegger. Basically they argue that the net US financial position is not as dire as it seems due to the existance of ’dark matter’ (or in more converntional terms, due to the part of the iceberg which isn’t visible and measured). US assets they argue are conventionally undervalued due to the presence of ’hard to measure’ components. Central to their argument is this point:

"We would say that EuroDisney in reality is not worth 100 million (what BEA would value it) but four times that (the capitalized value at our 5% rate of the 20 million per year that it earns). BEA is missing this and therefore grossly understates net assets. Why can EuroDisney earn such a return? Because the investment comes with a substantial amount of know-how, brand recognition, expertise, research and development and also with our good friends Mickey and Donald. This know-how is a source of dark matter. It explains why the US can earn more on its assets than it pays on its liabilities and why foreigners cannot do the same."

I would say the argument that ’foreigners’ are unable to leverage "know-how, brand recognition, expertise, research and development" is a ridiculously simplistic one, and it almost stretches the bounds of credulity that someone might believe this, but that having been said, if here in Europe we continually fail to maintain our R&D pace it will not be such a silly argument at some stage in the foreseeable future.
And all the European countries are talking about now is the UK rebate and the huge handouts to rich French farmers. Sigh.

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15/12/2005
Selectieve verontwaardiging

Freya Vanden Bossche vindt het Nederlands regeringsbeleid hardvochtig. We hadden eigenlijk niet anders verwacht van een socialiste. Bovendien is het waar: het Nederlandse regeringsbeleid is niet bepaald zachtzinnig. Koopkrachtverlies, ook voor de minder begoeden in de Nederlandse economie, was de laatste jaren schering en inslag. Punt is wel dat dit hardvochtig beleid zijn oorzaak vindt in de geldverslindende cadeaupolitiek van de tweede paarse regering. Noodzakelijke correcties zijn nu eenmaal niet al te vaak zachtzinnig (helaas!).

Wat ik me eigenlijk echt afvraag is het volgende. Waarom wordt er vandaag de dag toch zo vaak op dezelfden ingehakt? De Verenigde Staten (oorlog! Bush!), Groot-Brittannië (tegen Europa! Blair!) en Nederland (burgerlijk!, Balkenende!) zijn altijd kop van jut, vooral onder onze linkse vrienden.

Ze kunnen gelijk hebben hoor, daar niet van, maar ik vraag me wel af waarom andere landen altijd de dans ontspringen.

Neem nu Duitsland. Gerhard Schroeder – geen stijfburgerlijke christendemocraat, of een arrogante Texaan, maar een moderne, goedlachse, nette sociaal-democraat (nu ja, net) – is nog maar pas bondskanselier af, of hij heeft al een topfunctie in het bedrijfsleven aanvaard. Dat zou toch geen schandaal mogen zijn voor een sociaal-democraat? Natuurlijk niet. Maar het gaat niet om zomaar een bedrijf. Het gaat om een consortium verbonden aan Gasprom. Gasprom is een Russisch gasbedrijf, gecontroleerd door de overheid, en dus door Vladimir Putin.

Nu is Putin, ondanks de bewering van Schroeder (maar waar zijn anders vrienden voor he), geen door de wol geverfde democraat. Hij is integendeel meer en meer een – hardvochtige – dictator. En Gasprom is geen toonvoorbeeld van corporate governance. Schroeder krijgt de functie omdat hij een grote deal heeft geregeld voor het bedrijf. Daar wordt hij nu ruimschoots voor beloond. Ik ben eigenlijk echt benieuwd wat de gewone Duitse arbeider, die de laatste jaren toch te maken heeft gehad met een aantal hardvochtige maatregelen van Schroeder, hiervan vindt. Hoe dan ook, zij die zeggen dat ze die arbeiders verdedigen, type Freya Vanden Bossche, geven geen kik.

Naar onze zuiderburen dan. Een artikel in de Londense Times zegt dat de Fransen ontvangers zijn van landbouwsubsidies. Drie keer meer dan enig ander land. Niet bepaald zachtzinnig is dat tegenover de belastingsbetalers in andere landen die nu meer zullen moeten bijdragen. Evenmin is dat zachtzinnig voor de arme boeren in Frankrijk, want de subsidies zijn bestemd voor grote landbouwbedrijven. Een politiek dus die leidt tot hogere belastingen en tot een grotere ongelijkheid tussen boeren en niet-boeren en tussen boeren onderling. Precies datgene wat Freya verwijt aan de Nederlandse regering.

Maar ook nu: enkel stilzwijgen.

Een hardvochtig beleid, kortom, is geen monopolie van centrum-rechtse regeringen, en evenmin van de V.S., Groot-Brittannië en Nederland alleen. Vanwaar dan toch die selectieve verontwaardiging?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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15/12/2005
Reforming the common agricultural policy and the poor

I think that the evidence is fairly conclusive (see Arvind Panagyria, Jagdish Bhagwati, studies of the World Bank), that eliminating subsidies, especially export subsidies will hurt instead of benefit the poorest countries. Most of them are net importers of food. As prices will rise when subsidies are removed, net importers will be hurt. This empirical evidence gets by the way some political credibility due to the fact that the elimination of those subsidies are demanded not by the poorest countries but by middle-income countries like Brazil and India, who have an comparative advantage and are net-exporters.

Agricultural reforms have only positive results for the real poor countries when it is comprehensive: when not only subsidies but all other barriers (tariffs, quota’s, non-tariff barriers) against market entry are eliminated. In fact the poor countries will gain most if those barriers are lifted not only by the West, but by countries like Brazil and India. Their barriers are indeed much higher than those of the U.S. or Europe. But they don’t want to lower tariffs which is why they concentrate on subsidies, where the West is the major villain. And Oxfam of course obliges. But it’s doubtful if they will help the most neediest this way.

Whatever the case, subsidies, and again especially export subsidies, are only a small part of the gamut of protectionist measures in place anyway. If we really want to help the poorest of the poor concentrating on that small part, and ignoring the big picture of overall protectionism, is not what we should do.

As Pietra Rivoli writes in her book about the textile industry, eliminating subsidies will not help farmers in the third world very much, at least not in the short term. Eliminating subsidies is a start but it will not eliminate the real causes of their poverty: the lack of education and reading skills, the lack of property rights, the lack of commercial infrastructure and scientific program’s. All the things where Oxfam (and, I’m sorry to say because I’m one of them, many free traders) do not fight for. In fact, it’s their own government policies (if any), and not that of the U.S. (cotton) or Europe (sugar), that keeps them poor.

We in the West should not be proud. The CAP remains a disgrace and a disaster. It teaches the third world that they should emulate this kind of government intervention, which they of course should not do. That’s why we should ditch the CAP. If we want to try to persuade third world governments that liberalization and free markets is the way forward, for them also, we should set the example and eliminate all kinds of protectionism (N. Gregory Mankiw by the way proposes the use of the word isolationism), starting with the most hurtful: those that limit market access.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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15/12/2005
Wrong enemy

Yes. The EU budget negotiations are painfull to follow. But it’s not because of the British. Why are we picking at Tony Blair so much? He is right you know to draw the attention to the plain fact that taxpayers in other countries are making French farmers rich - in spades:

Three times as many French farmers receive large subsidies from the EU than those of any other country. In total, France receives almost twice as much direct subsidies for its farmers as any other member state, and they are mostly channelled to large farmers rather than traditional small-scale land holders. Despite the huge discrepancies France steadfastly refuses to countenance any reduction in farm subsidies, bringing the EU budget negotiations in Brussels and the World Trade Organisation talks in Hong Kong, both climaxing this week, to the brink of collapse.
Let’s face it. It are the French, and not the British, who do everything they can to protect their own interests, let all the rest be damned. It are the French, and not the British, who are behaving selfishly. All the attention is going to Blair’s refusal to give up the UK rebate, but the French refusal to do something on the massive subsidies to a few big farmers and agro-industrial companies is much much worse. As Abiola Lapite expresses it strongly:

France’s farmers are the parasites of the European Union, subsidy-hungry leeches who do little more than destroy taxpayer value while ruining the livelihoods of millions of poor farmers throughout the rest of the world, yet instead of the British government demanding that they wean themselves off the EU teat, it is the French who have the temerity to insist that Britain and the rest of Europe continue to subsidize this wealthy coterie of rent-seeking layabouts.
If tomorrow we don’t have a budget agreement, nor a free trade agreement we have the French to blame. A rather strong case is emerging to push that country out of the EU so we can built a better, more liberal Europe.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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15/12/2005
Creepy

What’s a so-called social-democrat doing at a corrupt company controlled by an autocrat? Here’s the story:

Gerhard Schröder, the former German chancellor, is to be a director of a Russian-German pipeline consortium controlled by Gazprom, the Russian state-controlled gas group said on Thursday. Anti-corruption activists said his appointment to the super­visory board of the $5.7bn (€4.8bn) North European Gas Pipeline would rekindle debate in Germany about possible conflicts of interest for retired politicians who move into business. Hansjörg Elshorst, head of the German section of the Transparency International corruption lobby group, said: “Is Schröder giving his elder-statesman backing because he believes in the political significance of the venture? Or is he being rewarded for supporting the deal earlier? The latter would be unacceptable, but either way he has to come forward and explain.” This week Transparency International called for a “cooling period” for holders of political office who switch to business. As chancellor Mr Schröder backed the Baltic pipeline, which he deemed essential for ensuring German energy supplies. It will carry gas directly to Germany via the Baltic seabed from 2010. Mr Schröder, with Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, attended the signing of the contract in Berlin on September 7, some 10 days before the election that ended his second term. The opposition criticised Mr Putin’s visit as endorsement of the chancellor’s re-election bid. Mr Schröder, a friend of Mr Putin, whom he once called a “dyed-in-the-wool democrat”, was criticised for failing to consult neighbours that opposed the project. The pipeline, 51 per cent owned by Gazprom, with Eon and Wintershall each owning 24.5 per cent, is the most ambitious Russian-German business project in recent years. The ground-breaking ceremony was held yesterday in Babajewo, 400km from Moscow, with Michael Glos, economics minister, representing the new German government.
Creepy.

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15/12/2005
Inequality and the state

The one thing I hate more than a state that wants to make us all equal is a state that perpetuates inequalities. It seems that in Texas, that most conservative state of States, they agree:

So what could we learn from Texas? How about their 10% law, which guarantees a university place to the top 10% of students at any school? This is wonderfully egalitarian. It reduces the disadvantage students suffer if - through not fault of their own - they attend crap schools. Contrast this with the scandalous situation in the UK, where state schools blight the life-chances of brighter students. Texas’s 10% law proves the opposite. it shows that Texas is more committed to genuine equality of opportunity than most Islingtonians, who seem content to ensure that the state perpetuates vicious inequalities.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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14/12/2005
Terminator wants to terminate global warming

One of the worlds biggest economies is serious about reducing CO-emissions:

I recently committed California to lead the worldwide effort to fight global warming. By 2010, we will reduce greenhouse gases to the levels we produced in 2000; by 2020, we will reduce to 1990 levels; and by 2050, California will reduce these pollutants by 80 percent compared to 1990 levels.
The Republican governor obviously is at odds here with his Republican collegue in the White House. He writes:

The science shows that manmade pollution has added more than 50 percent to the natural level of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere. Even if we terminate our contribution to this pollution tomorrow, it will take decades for our planet to heal. In the meantime, our children will see severe impacts to our snow pack in the Sierra Nevada mountains, which reduces our annual water supplies; erosion of our valuable coastline; flooding of valuable farmlands in the Central Valley; and a wide variety of health impacts related to changes in seasonal temperatures.

That’s why I am dedicated to reversing this trend with targets that rely on many programs. We will reduce emissions from vehicles starting in 2009 under our landmark greenhouse gas law; from power plants, by obtaining more of our electricity from clean, renewable resources under our “Renewable Portfolio Standard,” which I have committed to implement many years sooner than currently anticipated; and from energy-efficient buildings and homes as required under my Green Buildings Initiative.

My programs for a million solar roofs, the Hydrogen Highway and obtaining more energy from farm waste and other biomass will also significantly reduce greenhouse gases, while simultaneously making us more energy independent. We will also rapidly make our 70,000 state vehicles the cleanest, greenest in the nation.

Our Climate Action Registry will create market-based emission trading programs in cooperation with other regions and with the numerous California companies that have become members of this visionary project. Companies that reduce emissions invariably save money—a winning strategy for both our economic and environmental well-being.


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13/12/2005
Tony Blair: neoconservative

Neoconservatism is not dead yet, fortunately:

What is neoconservative foreign policy? The best thumbnail definition is the one given by Paul Berman in his hugely influential Terror and Liberalism (2003) and quoted by Oliver Kamm: "Freedom for others means safety for ourselves. Let us be for freedom for others." It is that coupling, of national security with the promotion of freedom, that has given neoconservative foreign policy its potency, and why it is likely to last through a change of power in the United States after George W Bush - certainly if the Republican victor is John McCain, probably if the Democratic victor is Hillary Clinton.
By the way, do you know who in this sense the first real neoconservative was and is? Tony Blair:

Tony Blair’s distinctively neoconservative foreign policy preceded that of the Bush administration - it did not follow it. His leadership on air strikes against Saddam Hussein in 1998, the turning-point interventions in Kosovo and Sierra Leone, and the post-9/11 conflicts of Afghanistan and Iraq have been - from the point of view of neoconservatism - exemplary . . . What Blair has resuscitated (particularly during Kosovo and Sierra Leone) is the sense that Britain can lead, not follow, global trends in foreign affairs - that, as a global power, Britain’s interests are best served not by selfish isolationism or abnegation of responsibility, but by being a world leader with a humanitarian urge.

That Blair took this position - the first national leader to do so - makes Sir Christopher Meyer’s opportunistic memoirs, in which he accuses Blair of poodling along behind George Bush, even grubbier: Blair led, but had not the power to intervene alone, save in such relatively small-scale conflicts as Sierra Leone. His 1999 Chicago speech remains a high water mark of liberal interventionist - or neoconservative - thinking.


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13/12/2005
Government: what is it good for?

Bounded rationality, that fact that people make psychological errors all the time, does not mean we should trust governmental decisionmaking above the private version. In political markets (voting...) there are less and weaker incentives to correct those errors. As a result errors are more frequent in the political process than in private decisions.

So we should remain weary against those who say that because markets do not work perfectly there is ample room for government intervention into private lives. And we should especially be weary for those who insist that this government invervention should be in the form of "soft parternalism", for instance the use of persuasion. As an example: instead of taxing sigarette sales, which would be an example of hard parternalism, in the soft version government would label packages with a dire warning that smoking is bad for your health. Surely no one, not even the extremist of a libertarian can be against the use of labels?

But there are lot’s of reasons why soft parternalism could be more dangerous than the hard version:

Soft paternalism is an emotional tax on behavior which yields no government revenues.
Soft paternalism can cause bad decisions just as easily as hard paternalism.
Public monitoring of soft paternalism is much more difficult than public monitoring of hard paternalism.
While hard paternalism will be limited by public opposition, soft paternalism is particularly attractive because it builds public support.
Soft paternalism can build dislike or even hatred of subgroups of the population.
Soft paternalism leads to hard paternalism.
Soft paternalism complements other government persuasion.
Soft paternalism requires a government bureaucracy that is skilled in manipulating beliefs. A persuasive government bureaucracy is inherently dangerous because that apparatus can be used in contexts far away from the initial paternalistic domain.
I must say that this all (well, not all of it) comes as a suprise for this hardline libertarian. I’v always thought that in genetically modified organisms for instance, labeling (soft) would be preferable over just banning it (hard). For one thing, we have had a ban in the European Union and we are now going to labeling. Hard paternalism is being substituted here by soft parternalism. That should be considered as a victory for libertarians, because now we have more choice. But is it? Should we expect now that it will lead back to hard paternalism? Maybe governments will tax gmo’s in the future?
For libertarians, there seems to be only one way: abolishing governments completely, so that no form of paternalism remains possible?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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13/12/2005
Against the Tobin-tax

Owen Barder argues against a Tobin-tax:

There are two arguments for a Tobin Tax (i.e. a small tax on foreign exchange transactions):

* it would provide a dedicated source of revenue to pay for increases in aid;
* it would benefit the economy by reducing volatility by reducing the amount of trading in currency markets.
Neither of these arguments stands up to scrutiny.

First, we can increase aid without finding a new source of revenue. UK Overseas Development Assistance is expected to be Ł4.9 billion this year, about 0.39% of GDP. We would need about another Ł3.8 billion a year to get up to 0.7% - the internationally agreed aspiration, which Jeff Sachs reckons is more than is needed to reach the Millennium Development Goals. UK public spending (measured as Total Managed Expenditure) is expected to increase by Ł28 billion in real terms over the next two years - we’d need about a seventh of the total increase to go to aid to reach the 0.7% target in two years. Alternatively, it would need about 1p on the basic rate of income tax, or a 3p increase in the top rate of tax. Linking aid increases to the introduction of a new tax (and one that is likely to be difficult, if not impossible, to get international agreement on) enables us to hide from the truth, which is that we haven’t increased aid because we don’t want to.

Second, I don’t understand why people think that high turnover in foreign exchange markets makes them more volatile. Deep and liquid markets are more, not less, likely to converge quickly on prices that reflect the economic fundamentals. The trends in currency prices that adversely affect poor countries are the inexorable long term depreciation as the terms of trade move against countries dependent on the export of primary commodities and the income gap between rich and poor countries continues to grow. These long term trends won’t be reversed by a Tobin Tax. If the problem was short term volatility, it would be simpler and cheaper to hedge than to try to reduce the volatility.


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12/12/2005
Where is the beef?

In december 1985 the then European Community banned the use of hormones within EC livestock farming and the import of meat produced with such hormones. Health issues were said to be the reason for the ban. But of course it was not the only reason, not even the major reason, as scientists later came to the conclusion that hormone-treated meat did not pose a danger for human health. The report was dismissed as irrelevant and the ban remained in place. Even the WTO could not do anything about it. What were the real reasons for the ban? For one thing it could be used to limit the beef surplus problem. And it assured that no farmer could gain a competitive advantage. It was an act of protectionism: not to protect consumers mind you, but to protect inefficient farmers from competition and to maintain an ineffective agricultural policy. Here is the story:

The concern of Europeans about hormone-treated meat began in 1980 with horror stories about the irresponsible use leading to abnormal sexual development in humans who ate the meat. Soon European consumer groups seized upon hormone-treated meat as a public health threat and urged the ban of all hormones. West Germany led the opposition to hormone use and its government along with the Belgian, and Italian governments had already banned hormone use with national legislation. In an unusual move, the European Parliament took the initiative to pass a resolution for a Community-wide ban on all hormones. While the European Parliament has no authority over trade policy, the hormone policy related to consumer health and regulation of the Common Market where the Parliament has a larger voice in the institutional process. In December 1985, the Agriculture Council adopted the directive to ban the use of hormones within EC livestock farming and the import of meat produced with such hormones. Agriculture Commissioner Frans Andriessen also advocated the ban as a way to help curb the growing beef surplus problem. In view of the cost of paying for the 800,000 ton “beef mountain” filling EC intervention stocks in 1985, it was easy to advocate a regulation that would in effect limit domestic production and imports. Farmers supported the ban since it would reassure consumers while leveling the playing field so that neither farmers within Europe nor those overseas could gain a competitive advantage by means of growth-promoting hormones.The directive emphasized the need to harmonize policies in order to uphold equal trade conditions within the Common Market. Although different national regulations to protect public health are allowed within the common market, differential regulation of hormones would distort trade because some countries could use hormones to produce more beef at less cost while other countries could use the health standard as a trade barrier to isolate their national market. Creating a single hormones policy for the Common Market was indirectly part of the Single European Act plan to integrate the product standards of member states, including harmonization of sanitary and phytosanitary standards (Vogt, 1989, p.5). Five years after the Directive was first issued in 1985, the European Court of Justice upheld the ban against a legal challenge and stated that the policy was necessary to prevent different rules in member states from forming barriers that distort trade. European officials showed little concern about whether there was scientific evidence of a health risk. A Commission-appointed scientific study finally completed its research after the ban had already been approved. Its conclusion that hormone implants did not pose a health danger was summarily dismissed; the Agriculture Commissioner Frans Andriessen said, “Scientific advice is important, but it is not decisive. In public opinion, this is a very delicate issue that has to be dealt with in political terms".


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12/12/2005
And those guys are running secret prisons?

Make false hotel reservations. Block the toilet. Call in sick. Fun with fire. Make big explosions. Some of the tricks from a CIA sabotage manual to destabilize the Nicaraguan government and economic system. True or not, i don’t know: probably not but it could be true. In another time and place didn’t they try to block toilets with sacred books? But I do know that such manuals were made and i also know that this one is a lot of fun.

Go take a look.
(Hat tip: Division of Labour)

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10/12/2005
Would companies be smaller in a genuine free market?

Market-anarchist (hey, that’s a nice term!) Roderick T. Long answers in the affirmative:

What size and degree of hierarchy are optimal? I don’t pretend to know; I would guess that it varies by industry, and that it also depends on a host of further factors specific to each situation. But in a free market firms would be rewarded for approaching the optimum and penalised for deviating from it.

We don’t have a free market, however; instead we have a highly regulated market. For familiar reasons, such regulations hamper the less affluent more than the more affluent, and so successful firms will tend to become somewhat insulated from competition by less established firms, thus removing one check on their inefficiency. And as Kevin Carson points out, regulatory standardisation also decreases competition among the successful firms – a form of de facto cartelisation. Government regulation thus lowers the costs associated with size and hierarchy more than it lowers the associated benefits; it stands to reason, then, that firms in a genuine free-market context could be expected to be smaller and less hierarchical than they tend to be today. This is doubly true once one takes into account the increased competition for workers that a less regulated economy would presumably see (assuming that workers generally prefer less hierarchical work environments).

So how different would firms be under a genuine free market? To answer that question one would have to be able to sort out which aspects of today’s economy derive primarily from the market and which primarily from regulation, and that’s no easy task. So I feel confident about the direction of difference, but not the degree. And in any case the degree partly depends on what workers are willing to put up with – which is a variable, not a constant (and one of the functions of a labour movement is precisely to influence that variable).
(Hat tip: Kevin Carson)

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9/12/2005
Christmas should be (or is) commercial

Here is how a Randian looks upon Christmas:

Christmas in America is an exuberant display of human ingenuity, capitalist productivity, and the enjoyment of life. Yet all of these are castigated as "materialistic"; the real meaning of the holiday, we are told, is assorted Nativity tales and altruist injunctions (e.g., love thy neighbor) that no one takes seriously.

In fact, Christmas as we celebrate it today is a 19th-century American invention. The freedom and prosperity of post-Civil War America created the happiest nation in history. The result was the desire to celebrate, to revel in the goods and pleasures of life on earth. Christmas (which was not a federal holiday until 1870) became the leading American outlet for this feeling.

Historically, people have always celebrated the winter solstice as the time when the days begin to lengthen, indicating the earth’s return to life. Ancient Romans feasted and reveled during the festival of Saturnalia. Early Christians condemned these Roman celebrations -- they were waiting for the end of the world and had only scorn for earthly pleasures. By the fourth century, the pagans were worshipping the god of the sun on December 25, and the Christians came to a decision: if you can’t stop ’em, join ’em. They claimed (contrary to known fact) that the date was Jesus’ birthday, and usurped the solstice holiday for their Church.

Even after the Christians stole Christmas, they were ambivalent about it. The holiday was inherently a pro-life festival of earthly renewal, but the Christians preached renunciation, sacrifice, and concern for the next world, not this one. As Cotton Mather, an 18th-century clergyman, put it: "Can you in your consciences think that our Holy Savior is honored by mirth? . . . Shall it be said that at the birth of our Savior . . . we take time . . . to do actions that have much more of hell than of heaven in them?"

Then came the major developments of 19th-century capitalism: industrialization, urbanization, the triumph of science -- all of it leading to easy transportation, efficient mail delivery, the widespread publishing of books and magazines, new inventions making life comfortable and exciting, and the rise of entrepreneurs who understood that the way to make a profit was to produce something good and sell it to a mass market.

For the first time, the giving of gifts became a major feature of Christmas. Early Christians denounced gift-giving as a Roman practice, and Puritans called it diabolical. But Americans were not to be deterred. Thanks to capitalism, there was enough wealth to make gifts possible, a great productive apparatus to advertise them and make them available cheaply, and a country so content that men wanted to reach out to their friends and express their enjoyment of life. The whole country took with glee to giving gifts on an unprecedented scale.

Santa Claus is a thoroughly American invention. There was a St. Nicholas long ago and a feeble holiday connected with him (on December 5). In 1822, an American named Clement Clarke Moore wrote a poem about a visit from St. Nick. It was Moore (and a few other New Yorkers) who invented St. Nick’s physical appearance and personality, came up with the idea that Santa travels on Christmas Eve in a sleigh pulled by reindeer, comes down the chimney, stuffs toys in the kids’ stockings, then goes back to the North Pole.

Of course, the Puritans denounced Santa as the Anti-Christ, because he pushed Jesus to the background. Furthermore, Santa implicitly rejected the whole Christian ethics. He did not denounce the rich and demand that they give everything to the poor; on the contrary, he gave gifts to rich and poor children alike. Nor is Santa a champion of Christian mercy or unconditional love. On the contrary, he is for justice -- Santa gives only to good children, not to bad ones.

All the best customs of Christmas, from carols to trees to spectacular decorations, have their root in pagan ideas and practices. These customs were greatly amplified by American culture, as the product of reason, science, business, worldliness, and egoism, i.e., the pursuit of happiness.

America’s tragedy is that its intellectual leaders have typically tried to replace happiness with guilt by insisting that the spiritual meaning of Christmas is religion and self-sacrifice for Tiny Tim or his equivalent. But the spiritual must start with recognizing reality. Life requires reason, selfishness, capitalism; that is what Christmas should celebrate -- and really, underneath all the pretense, that is what it does celebrate. It is time to take the Christ out of Christmas, and turn the holiday into a guiltlessly egoistic, pro-reason, this-worldly, commercial celebration.
Shocking?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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8/12/2005
Als Anderlecht supporter...

...wens ik dit toch niet aan een Club-supporter toe:

De politie van Brugge heeft tijdens de Champions League-voetbalwedstrijd Club Brugge-Bayern Munchen proces-verbaal opgemaakt tegen een van de supporters van Club Brugge. De man bracht een Hitler-groet uit in de richting van de bezoekende supporters. Hij riskeert een administratieve boete en een stadionverbod in het kader van de voetbalwet.
Die Duitsers zullen toch wel tegen een stootje kunnen zeker? Waar houden we ons toch mee bezig.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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8/12/2005
Participation not always good

Bad jobs at bad wages is better then no jobs at all. But the same does not hold for marriage. A bad marriage is not better than no marriage at all. On the contrary, so long as you are not very happily married, it’s better not to...Now of course some think that marriage is sacred, so that even it you are unhappy you should stay married. Strangely they also seem to think that because it is sacred it should not be open for those people with special characteristics.

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8/12/2005
Afghans optimistic about the future

According to this poll from ABC News.

Afghanistan is still an immensely poor country. But three quarters of Afghans believe the counry is heading in the right direction. The contrast with the richest country in the world, the country that liberated the Afghan people from the terror of the Taliban (nine in ten still support the change in regime by the U.S.), is huge: only 30% of Americans think their country is going into the right direction.

Osama Bin Laden is as unpopular in Afghanistan as Bush is in Europe. Only one in ten view him favorably or have a neutral view. And life is getting better:

Progress fuels these views: Despite the country’s continued problems, 85 percent of Afghans say living conditions there are better now than they were under the Taliban. Eighty percent cite improved freedom to express political views. And 75 percent say their security from crime and violence has improved as well. After decades of oppression and war, many Afghans see a better life.
Still even in Afghanistan almost one third think that attacks on American forces can be justified. At the same time, eighty-three percent of Afghans express a favorable opinion of the United States overall. Liberators are at the same time viewed as occupiers, it seems. A thought-provoking result.
(Hat tip: Tim Blair)

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8/12/2005
Wal-Mart and France

The Naked Economist says that France could use some dose of Wal-Mart-economics. Because bad jobs at bad wages (but improved by a non-job-destroying measure like the earned income tax credit) are better than no jobs at all (and especially being without a job for a long period of time), as the French have found out lately:

I recently found myself asking a fairly bizarre economic question: Would the disaffected youth torching cars in France be happier if they could get jobs at Wal-Mart? If you think I’m kidding, I’m not. France and the United States have two distinct "flavors" of capitalism. The U.S. has the more "Wild West" version. Our economy is relatively unregulated compared to a place like France. We promise our citizens fewer benefits than the French. We offer our workers and firms less protection. Our government meddles less in how businesses operate and our overall tax burden is significantly lower. The French have the more coddling flavor of capitalism. Citizens receive more benefits from the state, such as guaranteed health care. Workers have far more expansive benefits: Longer maternity leave and vacations, higher minimum pay, and the government has capped the workweek at 35 hours. Perhaps most significant, French workers have extraordinary job protection. Once hired, they’re hard to get rid of.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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8/12/2005
Iraq: the case for withdrawal

The case for withdrawal seems to be based upon these two pillars:

1) the muslim world increasingly is turning against the "insurgents" of al-Qaeda and al-Zarqawi. Annoucing plans to withdraw from Iraq would built upon this momentum against the terrorists;
2) all Iraqi communities, including the Kurds, seem to want the Americans to withdraw so that they can run their own affairs.

This does not mean of course that withdrawal should be immediate. But the U.S. should say loud and clear that i does not want to stay forever in Iraq and it should announce a timetable to show that they are serious. Maybe the best moment to announce a phased withdrawal would be just after the december elections when Iraqi’s have chosen their own government. It would be a nice moment to declare victory and let the Iraqi’s democraticallly run their own country:

Fawaz A. Gerges, an expert on the insurgency movement in Iraq and on the jihad movement in the Muslim world, says the bombings at three Amman hotels last month have produced "a turning point in the Middle East." He says the overall disgust with these violent policies has also led to what he calls "the beginning of a civil war within the Sunni community in Iraq and the rest of the Arab world," in which Sunnis are planning to defy Zarqawi and vote in large numbers later this month to have a role in the new Iraqi government.

Gerges, a Lebanese-born professor of International Affairs and Middle Eastern Studies at Sarah Lawrence College, says "many Islamists and former jihadists are saying Al-Qaeda is doing a great deal of damage to the ummah, the Muslim community worldwide, but also to the Islamist movement. Public polls, a very important indicator in the Arab world, tell us we are witnessing a shift away from being sympathetic to Al-Qaeda to being inhospitable and even hostile to Al-Qaeda’s global ideology."

Crucial to all this, he says, is a decision by the Bush administration to signal to the new Iraqi government that it is planning some kind of phased withdrawal from Iraq "sooner rather than later." Gerges says, "I think the administration must act on the momentum that exists now in Iraq and try to convince Sunni public opinion that, ’We are planning to leave. We are planning to leave in a year, a year in a half, and allow Iraqis to run their own affairs.’"
Read the whole thing.

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7/12/2005
De voetbalkenner

Aad De Mos:

Anderlecht maakt op het veld van Betis geen enkele kans. Zeker niet nu Betis onderaan staat in de Primera Division. Het zal zich willen rehabiliteren en de Champions League is daar een ideale gelegenheid voor.
Betis - Anderlecht : 0 - 1

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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6/12/2005
Conspiracy theory

Kevin Drum observes that productivity grows fast while real hourly compensation falls and concludes:

This isn’t really a surprise. As near as anyone can tell, productivity appears to be primarily a result of technology advances, and neither Democrats nor Republicans have very much to say about that. Compensation, on the other hand, is primarily a function of how tight the labor market is, and Republicans have long done the business community’s bidding by pursuing policies that keep the labor market slack. Democrats, by contrast, generally try to pursue full employment policies. So if productivity is skyrocketing, but labor compensation is going down, where’s all that extra money going? Yes, you in the back? Bingo: it’s going to the class of people who are willing to turn around and tithe a portion of it back to the GOP and its allies in election year. Nice racket, isn’t it?
Is it? There are two sides to the story here. There is not only the slack in the labor market. There is also the productivity boom. For a real racket the Republicans should be pursuing policies for that productivity boom aswell. I wonder if Kevin Drum could tell us what those policies are. Now that i think about it, i wonder if Drum could tell as what the policies are to keep the labor market slack also? Because i really don’t understand. People like Drum consider the Bush adminstration to be too stupid or incompetent to stimulate productivity, but at the same time they are geniuses who can keep labour compensation down after years and years of fastly increasing productivity, which is quite a performance. This is conspiracy theory, level Michael Moore.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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5/12/2005
History repeats itself

See here for an interview with Ayaan Hirsy Ali on British broadcaster Channel 4. Nowadays in some quarters, alas even in liberal ones, Ayaan is considered an extremist. But since when is defening the rights of women or the right to free speach extreem? Apperantly it’s considered extreem when you’re dealing with islam. Which is quite odd of course since it is Hirsy Ali herself who has to be protected against extremist muslims. In fact, it amounts to saying that it was not the Ayatollah Khomeini who was extreem when he issued the fatwa against Salman Rushdie, but Rushdie himself. History repeats itself, but this time not as farce. It’s deadly serious:

During her visit to London, Ayaan Hirsi Ali was interviewed by Channel 4 News.

She claimed that a well funded lobbying campaign has been set up to discourage western governments and media from discussing subjects such as women’s rights in Islamic societies.

Westerners don’t want to hear anything critical of Islam, she argued, in fact they are so frightened by the "organised emotion" of Muslims, that they shy away from confronting it. She went on to say:

Freedom does not come cheap.

The forces that silenced Theo van Gogh will stop at nothing. They will do anything to silence me and other individual Muslims who are critical of Islam.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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4/12/2005
Markets in everything

Here is a nice argument for using the power of markets to save the environment:

So plastic bags are clogging up our drains. How do we solve the problem?

One way is to ban plastic bags. That is the typical solution we come up with for many problems. The thinking that informs such decision making is Bush-style “for us or against us”. The only reason why anyone would be against banning plastic bags is that they hate the environment, or are just evil capitalists concerned about their profits. Unfortunately, such thinking ignores the trade-offs inherent in any decision-making. For example, I usually avoid asking for plastic bags when I shop for little stuff close to my home. If I have to buy a bunch of bananas, I carry them in my hand. But if I have to carry stuff from a long way away, I get a bag. There is no point categorizing my decisions by asking: “Are you in favour of plastic bags or the environment?” Of course I care about the environment. I also care about my convenience and I trade off the two constantly.

Another way is to impose a tax on purchase of plastic bags. This is a good idea, and I might even support it if the money collected from the tax is used in collecting the garbage and disposing of them properly. This is a better idea because it imposes the costs where it belongs. It also puts the decision into my hands. Do I choose convenience or pay the price? It is upto me.

But this too is not my ideal solution.

It is not the use of plastic bags that is causing the problem. It is their disposal. So instead of charging at the point of sale, why not impose a charge at the point of disposal? I realise that this may not be practicable in India. It would be difficult to enforce in India which is why I’d support option 2. But if we could enforce it, this would be the best way to do it. Why?

This is why. They have found a way to use waste plastic bags to pave roads. The linked article refers to Niger, but I remember reading somewhere that Bangalore is also doing the same. This is not a complete solution to the plastic problem, but it suggests what could be done if incentives were aligned properly. If residents are charged to dispose of their plastic bags, it gives an incentive to someone to come up with creative ways to dispose of these bags. Given that it would cost money to dispose of a bag, they would gratefully hand it over to someone who offers to take it on for free. Or perhaps the innovator may actually find it feasible to offer cash for those bags. It would depend on the economics of the thing. The important thing is that if you tax the sale of the bags instead of the disposal, this incentive would not arise.

I am using this example to illustrate a principle that the government should use while dealing with environmental issues - the polluter pays. More precisely, the polluter should pay in proportion to the pollution and at the point of pollution.

For another example of this, take the Delhi Government rule that only CNG buses are allowed. Is that the best way to control pollution? No, because if someone comes up with an engine that pollutes less than CNG, he will have to take a lot of trouble trying to get it introduced in the market. He will have to lobby the government to change the rules (and probably face up to counter-lobbying by makers of CNG engines.) Far better to impose pollution norms, and let the compliance with those norms be the headache of vehicle manufacturers. It is better to control at the point of pollution than at some upstream point.

Some months back, in a discussion with Gaurav Sabnis, he had lamented that environmental policy is one place where we capitalists enter a grey area. In one sense that is true. Even the solutions that I’ve outlined aren’t “elegant” ones. All of them give the government much more policy making power than we would like. But then, no one has managed to come up with a good solution, and I think that the solutions that work with the market are still better than the ones that use the heavy hand of regulation.
Intelligent people over there in India. And thanks to Marginal Revolution for the title.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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4/12/2005
Quo vadis, internet?

Writing in Foreign Affairs, Kenneth Neil Cukier, who covers technology issues for The Economist, says that this document is a sort of Monroe Doctrine for the internet. In this document the U.S. sort of says it wants to control the internet indefinitely. The document, released last june states the U.S. Principles on the Internet’s Domain Name and Addressing System (DNS). These principles are:

- the preservation of the security and stability DNS will remain an important role for the U.S. government;
- however, other governments may manage their own country code top level domains (.be for instance for Belgium);
- ICANN, a private organisation will remain the technical manager;
- dialogue should continue in multiple fora (not just the UN). Approaches have to be market-based, and leadership should remain with the private sector.

Of this document Cukier writes:

Washington’s new position shrewdly mixes a few carrots in along with the big stick. It formally acknowledges that countries have "sovereignty concerns" about their national two-letter address domains -- a mealy-mouthed nod toward granting countries control over them, which is only appropriate. Although this will invite problems, such as with Taiwan’s ".tw," these can be sidestepped -- just as the allocation of telephone "country codes" to territories does not confer diplomatic recognition, neither does the allocation of country domains need to. Washington also supports the continued discussion of broader Internet governance issues in multiple forums, which could restrain the creation of a cumbersome and monolithic Global Internet Policy Council (which was among the UN working group’s proposals). It may also keep politicians from trespassing on ICANN’s more purely technical areas, which could harm the network. Nevertheless, although the new U.S. position may be the least bad alternative in the short term, it will almost certainly be unsustainable over the longer term. For the moment, there is little other governments can do to rebel. Unless they feel their concerns are being addressed, however, they are likely to try to set up a parallel naming and addressing system to compete with ICANN-sanctioned domains. Technology abhors homogeneity; differing technical standards are the norm rather than the exception. The ongoing scuffle over the creation of Galileo, Europe’s challenge to Washington’s Global Positioning System, is one example; the battle over third-generation mobile-phone standards is another. The danger, however, is that two different addressing systems on the Internet may not interoperate perfectly. If it wants to preserve and extend the benefits the Internet currently brings, Washington will have to come up with some way of sharing control with other countries without jeopardizing the network’s stability or discouraging free speech and technical innovation. Ultimately, what is playing out is a clash of perspectives. The U.S. government saw the creation of ICANN as the voluntary relinquishing of a critical source of power in the digital age; others saw it as a clever way for Washington to maintain its hegemony by placing Internet governance in the U.S. private sector. Foreign critics think a shift to multilateral intergovernmental control would mark a step toward enlightened global democracy; Washington thinks it would constitute a step back in time, toward state-regulated telecommunications. Whether and how these perspectives are bridged will determine the future of a global resource that nearly all of us have come to take for granted.


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3/12/2005
Not in my name

Remember all those people - Michael Moore, Cindy Sheehan, Tim Robbins and many many more - who protested against the American invasion of Iraq? As good Americans, they all screamed that it was a war "not in our name"? Now one of those people - Ramsey Clark - is defending Saddam Hussein. It’s all right, Clark says, that Saddam killed all those Iraqi’s (and started a war that killed hundred of thousands of Iranians aswell). For Clark, it’s only wrong when the U.S. is doing the killing. Will all the rest now stand up and say that Clark is defending a mass murderer but "not in our name"? Flat chance.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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3/12/2005
Digitale discriminatie

Christian Dupont neemt de strijd tegen de maatschappelijk uitsluiting zeer ernstig. Christian wie? Christian Dupont, de minister van Ambtenarenzaken, Maatschappelijke Integratie, Grootstedenbeleid en Gelijke Kansen. Van PS-signatuur. Net zoals alle andere ministers presenteerde deze PS’er de voorbije weken zijn Beleidsbrieven. De Beleidsbrief Sociale Integratie bevat een deel over de strijd tegen de digitale kloof. Dit onderdeel bevat dramatische zinsneden zoals:

De discriminatie tussen diegenen die toegang hebben tot Internet en diegenen die er geen toegang toe hebben, treft vooral de kwetsbare burgers.
En:

De verschillen tussen mannen en vrouwen hebben diverse oorzaken en gaan verder dan het probleem van de ICT-toegang of -opleiding. Het gaat om een breder maatschappelijk probleem. Het Plan zal er echter toe bijdragen de discriminaties tussen mannen en vrouwen in dit opzicht te verminderen. Het is belangrijk zich zorgen te maken om een situatie waarbij 55% van de Belgische internetgebruikers van het mannelijk geslacht is, tegenover slechts 45% van het vrouwelijk geslacht.
Als rechtgeaarde socialist strooit de heer Dupont graag rond met het woord “discriminatie”. Elke vorm van de minste ongelijkheid is discriminatie tegenwoordig. Denk ook aan de uitspraak van Kathleen Vanbremt over het lagere loon voor vrouwen in vergelijking met mannen. Discriminatie natuurlijk! En alleen discriminatie. Waarop professor Marc De Vos vandaag op Kanaal Z terecht opmerkte dat het lagere loon voor vrouwen toch ook wel andere oorzaken heeft dan alleen maar discriminatie.

Recent was er ook nog Vande Lanotte die sprak over de “discriminatie van ongeschoolden”.

Maar terug naar Christian Dupont. Weet hij Dupont eigenlijk wel dat hij zegt? Sommige groepen hebben minder toegang tot het internet dan andere. Vrouwen bijvoorbeeld maken 50% van de bevolking uit, maar “slechts” 45% van de internetgebruikers. Wauw! Dat is nu inderdaad echt iets om zich zorgen over te maken. Stel je voor: holibi’s maken 15% uit van de bevolking, maar “amper” 14,5% van de internetgebruikers. Zorgelijk! Discriminatie!

Het valt al te betwijfelen dat er werkgevers zijn die voor dezelfde job bewust 25% minder betalen wanneer de werknemer een vrouw in plaats van een man. Zou die Dupont nu werkelijk denken dat er internetproviders zijn die vrouwen bewust een beperktere toegang verlenen tot het internet dan mannen? Stel je voor: zo’n internetprovider zit achter zijn pc en merkt: oei, een vrouw. Snel een aantal sites blokkeren, haar downloadsnelheid beperken en haar debiet verminderen. Of dat ontwerpers van websites bewust mannen voor het oog hebben zodat deze sites niet of minder toegankelijk zijn voor vrouwen?

Belachelijke voorbeelden natuurlijk, maar wel degelijk voorbeelden van discriminatie. Wanneer in het kader van de digitale kloof de minister spreekt over discriminatie dan is hij dus belachelijk bezig. En het is belangrijk zich hierover zorgen te maken.

Het is duidelijk dat er wel degelijk groepen mensen zijn die onvoldoende of geen toegang hebben tot het internet. Maar deze groepen mensen hebben een te laag inkomen, of een bepaalde handicap, zijn niet geďnteresseerd, onvoldoende geschoold of te weinig gemotiveerd. Er zijn objectieve factoren aan te duiden waarom ze geen of minder toegang hebben tot het internet.

Het is belangrijk deze factoren te identificeren, want zo kun je er een oplossing aan geven. Mensen met een te laag inkomen bijvoorbeeld zou je een internetcheques kunnen geven waarmee ze zich een computer kunnen aanschaffen en een internetverbinding. Overigens zou dit een meer marktconforme benadering zijn dat het voorstel van Van Velthoven om aan iedereen een goedkoop pakket aan te bieden, ook voor diegene die het niet nodig hebben.

Maar dat is niet de benadering van Dupont. Die zwamt liever over discriminatie wanneer er geen sprake van is. Klinkt dramatisch natuurlijk, maar of dat de digitale kloof zal dichten is nog maar de vraag.

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2/12/2005
Vlaanderen : innovatieve wereldstad?

De roep naar een Vlaamse onafhankelijkheid wordt alsmaar groter. De voorbije week nog was er het opmerkelijk manifest van een groot aantal Vlaamse “toplui” die pleiten voor een onafhankelijk Vlaanderen. Ik betwijfel evenwel of al die “toplui” Vlaams-nationalisten zijn. Volgens mij gaat het hier eerder om pragmatici die de meerwaarde van België als tussenschakel met Europa niet langer zien. Om het bedrijfstermen uit te drukken: België brengt heel wat “deadweight” met zich mee, en weinig anders. Afschaffen dus die handel.

Ik moet eerlijk zeggen dat ik die redenering wel kan volgen. Ik ben niet zozeer voor een onafhankelijk Vlaanderen als voor het afschaffen van België. In hetzelfde kader ben ik overigens ook voor de afschaffing van de provincies. Ik zie eerlijk gezegd wel iets in het voorstel van Vincent Van Quickenborne over de uitbreiding van de gemeenten en de afschaffing van de provincies. Overbodige niveau’s zijn, wel, overbodig.

Nu is het verhaal bij vele Vlamingen die hier sympathiek tegenover staan dat dit moeilijk kan gezien we zitten met het probleem Brussel. Zoek je de meerwaarde van België? Brussel is die meerwaarde. Brussel is de hoofdstad van Europa maar wanneer ons land in twee wordt gedeeld, waardoor we onze centrale ligging kwijtspelen, zal Brussel die rol niet langer vervullen. Andere steden staan al klaar om de rol van Brussel over te nemen, met alle gevolgen van dien.

Ik denk dat die redenering klopt, maar dat de gevolgen minder ernstig zijn dan over het algemeen wordt aangenomen.

Wat met onze centrale ligging? Ik denk dat voor het veilig stellen van onze welvaart het liggen aan een zee veel belangrijker is dan een centrale ligging. De vergelijking loopt mank uiteraard maar kijk even naar Afrika. Als er al landen zijn die de negatieve economische spiraal van de laatste decennia hebben kunnen doorbreken dan zijn het landen die aan zee of een oceaan liggen. In China zijn het de kustgebieden die economisch floreren: in het binnenland is er nog veel, en stijgende, armoede. Voor wat ons land betreft, uit zich dat in de vaststelling dat de havens misschien wel belangrijker zijn dan het hebben van een Europese hoofdstad. Het nut van de centrale ligging erodeert overigens sowieso gezien het Europese zwaartepunt in zuidoostelijke richting verschuift.

Overigens moeten we vaststellen dat in de hiërarchie van wereldsteden Brussel geďdentificeerd wordt als een beta-stad. Weliswaar als enige in België (Antwerpen bevindt zich op een nog lager niveau), maar zelfs als Europese hoofdstad kan Brussel de vergelijking met pakweg Londen of Parijs niet doorstaan. Zowel het aantal inwoners, de bruto toegevoegde waarde als het aantal ondernemingen ligt in Brussel vele malen lager dan in Londen of Parijs. Natuurlijk zal je zeggen, dat komt omdat België klein is. Juist, en precies daarom klinkt het verwijt dat het opdelen van ons land in nog kleinere eenheden economisch dom is dan ook hol. Het zal nauwelijks verschil maken: het verschil is nu al onoverbrugbaar, zelfs mét een Europese hoofdstad.

Trouwens, misschien moeten we Vlaanderen zelf wel als een “stad” bekijken die, in het moderne concept van een stad, de internationale vergelijking kan weerstaan? Wat is nu dat modern concept?

De geconcentreerde stad heeft plaatsgemaakt voor ‘stedelijke netwerken’ waarbinnen stromen van informatie, goederen en mensen zich verplaatsen op een wereldomvattend niveau.
Vlaanderen is zeer open. Bovendien vormt Vlaanderen een dicht netwerk van vele stedelijke centra die uitwaaieren in suburbane zones. Bijna 30% van de bedrijven bevindt zich in de steden en 40% van de arbeidsplaatsen. De helft van de bevolking valt voor het uitoefenen van veel van haar vrije tijd activiteiten terug op de diensten van de steden. Vlaanderen kan worden beschouwd als één groot uitgezaaid stedelijk gebied. Een stedelijk netwerk met 6 miljoen inwoners: hard werkend, creatief en innovatief.

We hebben zeker nog wat werk voor de boeg. In de huidige geglobaliseerde wereld is niets vanzelfsprekend. We zijn (nog) niet internationaal ingesteld genoeg. We zijn nog niet creatief en innovatief genoeg. Maar als we Vlaanderen bekijken vanuit dit moderne concept van een “stedelijk netwerk van creativiteit en innovatie” dan denk ik wel dat het belang en de meerwaarde van “Brussel” al heel wat minder wordt en dat we bijgevolg geen schrik moeten hebben van een opdeling waarbij Brussel haar status van Europese hoofdstad verliest.

Als Vlaanderen in de plaats daarvan het status van “wereldhoofdstad van innovatie en creativeit” verkrijgt, ziet de toekomst er zelfs schitterend uit, met of zonder Brussel. Het moderne concept van een stad, en het toenemend belang van steden in de wereldeconomie, spelen met andere woorden in ons voordeel. Vlaanderen heeft wat mij betreft de toekomst. Van het einde van België moeten we geen schrik hebben.

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2/12/2005
Maar de oorlog is reeds gewonnen

Ik kijk een beetje vertwijfeld naar het internationale hot item van het ogenblik: de discussie over de vraag of de V.S. de oorlog in Irak aan het winnen of het verliezen is. Ik ben vertwijfeld (zeg je dat zo?) omdat het antwoord op die vraag eigenlijk simpel is: die oorlog is al lang gewonnen.

In 2003 viel de V.S. Irak binnen. De doelen waren duidelijk. Het regime van Saddam Hussein verdrijven en Irak ontwapenen. Dat laatste bleek achteraf (en ook wel voor een stuk vooraf) niet nodig te zijn, maar goed deze doelen zijn bereikt: Saddam is weg en staat nu terecht voor misdaden tegen de menselijkheid en Irak is nu zeker ontdaan van massavernietigingswapens. Conclusie klaar en duidelijk: oorlog gewonnen.

Maar wat dan met die andere oorlog, de oorlog tegen het terrorisme, die ook nog voor een groot deel in Irak wordt uitgevochten? Aah, die oorlog bedoel je. Die is nog lang niet gewonnen, maar dat heeft Bush ook nooit beweerd. En hoe je die oorlog kan winnen door de strijd zelf op te geven...

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1/12/2005
Ash on Ali

At least one bad consequence of the war in Iraq. To win muslim voters back who abandoned Labour because of the invasion Blair introduced a law to bar "incitement to religious hatred". Mere abusive or insulting words were enough to be seen as incitement. The bill has luckily been changed. But that the attack to remove Saddam - a good thing - has lead to an attack on free speech - a terrible bad thing - just to win a few votes back, certainly is disappointing and maddening. Why oh why are we ruled by these macchiavellian idiots (or is this an oxymoron...)? Britain certainly can use people as Ayaan Hirsi Ali:

I find her critique of multiculturalism, in the name of Enlightenment liberalism, too sweeping. In my view, her support for the French ban on the hijab in schools and public offices amounts to advocating an unnecessary restriction of individual liberty in the name of individual liberty. But her central claim seems to me vital and irrefutable: if being a free country means anything at all, it must mean that people have the chance to criticise freely, and without fear of reprisal, Islam, Hinduism or Sikhism, as they now in practice have the chance to excoriate Christianity (despite Britain’s ridiculous blasphemy laws), Judaism or, for that matter, Darwinism. To establish that claim, she is determined to go ahead and make Submission 2, which will treat the story from the men’s side, and Submission 3, which will suggest a possible response from Allah. Whatever the merits of the resulting films, we must salute her courage and support her in every way we can. It’s not just the rights of women from Muslim families she is fighting for; it’s a basic right for us all.


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1/12/2005
Quote of the day

Tim Worstall on the difficult question of how to help the worlds poor:

The simplest method would be to force all of our politicians to read David Ricardo. If that’s too much for their delicate intellects, Paul Krugman provides a lighter but similarly accurate read on free trade. There aren’t all that many things in economics that are both known to be true and difficult to understand. Free trade happens to be one of them.


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1/12/2005
Bolton talkes sense on the United Nations

It’s not me who’s saying that, but Ivo Daalder, a foreign relations expert at the moderately left-wing Brookings Institution:

The UN Ambassador yesterday:

"Americans are a very practical people, and they don’t view the U.N. through theological lenses. They look at it as a competitor in the marketplace for global problem-solving, and if it’s successful at solving problems, they’ll be inclined to use it. If it’s not successful at solving problems, they’ll say, ’Are there other institutions?’ . . . that’s why making the U.N. stronger and more effective is a reform priority for us: Because if it’s a more agile, effective organization, it is more likely to be a successful competitor as a global problem-solver."
Hate to say it, but that sounds exactly right to me.
Don’t hate to say it, but it sounds right to me too. Then again, i’m not an expert.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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1/12/2005
Bush: free trade rethoric against reality

We all know Bush as the champion of free trade. But that’s rethoric. Does it match up against reality? We may remember the measures to protect the big steel companies a few years ago. So, maybe surprisingly, taking the initiated anti-dumping cases as a yardstick we have to admit that rethoric does match reality. At least we are going into the right direction. After a burst of 77 initiations in 2001 it dropped to 24 in 2004 and only ten this year. After the year is over, it could rise to 13, which still is the lowest number since 1979 and possibly even since 1952.

Of course the reasons for this drop mostly have little to do with the trade policies of the current administration. The numbers always get’s lower in a recession and there is a downward trend worldwide. Still, this worldwide drop is much less spectacular than the one in the United States. And can one say that the U.S. is in a recession right now? At least one thing we can say is that reality is consistent with the free trade rethoric of G.W. Bush. He does not lie about everything.

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30/11/2005
Government kills

In spades:

I have to change all the world democide totals that populate my websites, blogs, and publications. The total for the communist democide before and after Mao took over the mainland is thus 3,446,000 + 35,226,000 + 38,000,000 = 76,692,000, or to round off, 77,000,000 murdered. This is now in line with the 65 million toll estimated for China in the Black Book of Communism, and Chang and Halliday’s estimate of "well over 70 million." This exceeds the 61,911,000 murdered by the Soviet Union 1917-1987, with Hitler far behind at 20,946,000 wiped out 1933-1945. For perspective on Mao’s most bloody rule, all wars 1900-1987 cost in combat dead 34,021,000 -- including WWI and II, Vietnam, Korea, and the Mexican and Russian Revolutions. Mao alone murdered over twice as many as were killed in combat in all these wars. Now, my overall totals for world democide 1900-1999 must also be changed. I have estimated it to be 174,000,000 murdered, of which communist regimes murdered about 148,000,000. Also, compare this to combat dead. Communists overall have murdered four times those killed in combat, while globally the democide toll was over six times that number.
Wouldn’t you rather prefer the invisible hand over the dead hand?

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29/11/2005
The trouble with China

The introduction of this paper says it all:

China’s very high and stable growth in the last few years would seem to indicate that the country is a success in all regards, including finance. This optimistic picture, however, may change if we consider the extremely high domestic saving and investment ratios. In fact, for an average 40% domestic investment to GDP (fully financed by domestic savings), an 8 to 10% growth is not such a high return to investment. This is a very rough indicator of potential misallocation of resources, namely domestic savings, which has been a common feature of closed economies, and even more so of planned ones.
China still has a long way to go....

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28/11/2005
Why oh why are they ruled by those idiots?

Well, this is paradise I suppose:

Cuba raised heavily subsidised electricity rates by as much as 333 per cent yesterday to save power and deal with chronic energy shortages. A decree signed by President Fidel Castro increased the cost of electricity for small consumers from 20 to 30 cents of a Cuban peso ($0.01) per kilowatt-hour (kwh). Cubans who consume more than 300kwh a month will see their rate rise from 30 cents to 1.30 pesos ($0.06) next month. "The lack of concern about electrical consumption is evident in our country due to the very low rates," the decree published in the ruling Communist Party newspaper Granma said. Power outages are frequent in Cuba whose thermoelectric generators built decades ago are obsolete and do not produce enough electricity to meet demand at peak consumption.
I’m having more and mory sympathy for those, like Ronald Reagan, who knew that government was part of the problem instead of the solution.

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27/11/2005
Compare and contrast

Bill Clinton, 1998:
Saddam (Hussein) must not be allowed to threaten his neighbors or the world with nuclear arms, poison gas or biological weapons (...)Earlier today I ordered America’s armed forces to strike military and security targets in Iraq. They are joined by British forces, (...) Their mission is to attack Iraq’s nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs and its military capacity to threaten its neighbors (...) Along with Prime Minister (Tony) Blair of Great Britain, I made it equally clear that if Saddam failed to cooperate fully we would be prepared to act without delay, diplomacy or warning (...) Instead of inspectors disarming Saddam, Saddam has disarmed the inspectors (...) In halting our airstrikes in November, I gave Saddam a chance -- not a license. If we turn our backs on his defiance, the credibility of U.S. power as a check against Saddam will be destroyed (...) The best way to end that threat once and for all is with a new Iraqi government -- a government ready to live in peace with its neighbors, a government that respects the rights of its people
Bill Clinton, 2005:

Saddam is gone. It’s a good thing, but I don’t agree with what was done (...) It was a big mistake. The American government made several errors ... one of which is how easy it would be to get rid of Saddam and how hard it would be to unite the country.
You made many big mistakes too Bill, one of which was to destroy the country with sanctions and bombs, without removing Saddam. That good thing you did not gave the Iraqi people. Bush did.
(Hat tip: Steve Antler)

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27/11/2005
Costa Ricans demand free trade

Publius Pundit reports an extraordenary demonstration in Costa Rica. It was not about democracy, or about social justice, not even against the United States. It was a demonstration for free trade:

Shouting ‘Yes To Jobs’ - the people themselves of Costa Rica have taken to the streets to demand free trade, in a vast demonstration of support! These are the people we haven’t heard from in the media coverage - until now - and now that they are too numerous to ignore. Too often the only coverage out there was of anti-free trade rentamob demonstrations. This time, things are different. Costa Ricans have stepped forward to demand free trade! As up and comers like El Salvador advance in this world with their free trade strategy, Costa Rica’s highly competitive people are making it clear that they don’t intend to be left behind. The train leaves for the enactment of the pact on Jan. 1, but the Costa Ricans have two years to get the pact passed. Do they want to lose two years? Doesn’t sound like it to me.
That pact is Cafta, the Central-American Free Trade Agreement between the United States and some Central-American countries. Unfortunately, Cafta has not much to do with genuine free trade, so i hope the demonstration really was about free trade as such, and not Cafta in particular. Still, it remains an extraordenary demonstration.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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27/11/2005
Protectionism as suicide terrorism

Arnold Kling:

We do not need a U.S. trade representative. Our trade policy should be unilateral disarmament, because the weapons in the trade war are all suicide bombs.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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26/11/2005
Its just not enough

Brink Lindsey on the economic nonsense of preferential trade agreements:

the textile industry is frequently the starter industry for industrial takeoff, but it’s the starter industry if the conditions are right, that is, if institutions and cultures are there that are congenial to or consistent with market-based economic activity. Then the textile industry is a fairly simple one and one that can make use of cheap labor and can help to build a dynamic of broader economic development. But that isn’t really what happened with a lot of textile-producing countries that we see in the world today. A lot of their textile industries are pure artifacts of the quota system, where it wasn’t so much that producers were running around looking for cheaper labor costs; it was that they were running around looking for places that weren’t under quota yet. And so producers would set up factories in places that had no competitive advantages whatsoever except that they were not quota-bound yet or quota was doled out to them for foreign policy reasons. And so there are a number of textile producers in the world today—and many of them, unfortunately are concentrated in Africa—that didn’t have those preconditions for takeoff for textiles to provide the spark. They’re just taking advantage of a strange and temporary policy loophole. So when you see countries like Bangladesh—not to pick on Africa all the time—where textiles makes up 80 percent of the country’s exports and they have been under quota protection for decades, you see that this isn’t a country that just needs a little bit more time. It’s a country that has deep institutional problems that just a little bit more time of having textile protectionism isn’t going to help. And so I think if we thought that giving Africa a few more years of preferential access for its textiles would do good, then that would be one thing. I’m very dubious that that is the case. We do, in fact, give some preferential access to African textiles under the AGOA, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, so that there is zero tariff treatment on African textiles that Chinese textiles don’t enjoy. It’s just not enough.
Read the whole thing.

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26/11/2005
De totalitaire bedreiging

Willy Claes bekende het voorbije weekend op Actua TV. Hij bekende…dat hij de toekomst pessimistisch tegemoet zag. Om dit te illustreren beschreef hij de toekomstige evoluties als een soort vierkant. In de eerste hoek bevond zich de demografische problematiek: de groei van de bevolking. In de tweede hoek zag Claes de groeiende kloof tussen rijk en arm die vroeg of laat tot een uitbarsting moet leiden. De derde hoek bestaat uit de almaar aanhoudende milieuvervuiling. In de vierde en laatste hoek de uitdaging en bedreiging van de globalisering.

Als de uitdagingen van dit vierkant niet snel en op adequate manier zouden worden aangepakt, zo stelde Claes, dan was het met onze planeet beroerd gesteld. De oplossing zag hij in een globale aanpak en het opgeven van de “enggeestige” attitudes verbonden aan de natie-staat. Om de kloof tussen rijk en arm te verkleinen bijvoorbeeld moet er meer solidariteit komen, solidariteit die dan vermoedelijk van bovenaf moet worden afgedwongen door een soort van wereldregering.

Ik deel het pessimisme van Willy Claes niet. Cijfers van de Verenigde Naties suggereren dat de groei van de bevolking stilaan stilvalt en dat we een piek gaan zien in 2050. In vele delen van de wereld, ook bijvoorbeeld in China, is niet de groei van de bevolking maar de vergrijzing het grote “probleem”. Uiteraard zijn er nog wel regio’s in de wereld waar de demografische evolutie niet gunstig is, zoals in het Midden-Oosten en Afrika, maar ervaring uit het verleden suggereert dat hiervoor geen globale aanpak nodig is. In een wereld waar de situatie zo sterk verschilt van regio tot regio en zelfs van land tot land, valt moeilijk in te zien hoe een globale aanpak een meerwaarde kan betekenen. De behoeften van Japan zijn totaal verschillend met pakweg, Nigeria. Bovendien is het niet zeker dat de groei van de bevolking noodzakelijk slecht is.

Nog steeds socialist zijnde is het evenmin verwonderlijk dat Claes per definitie aanneemt dat de kloof tussen rijk en arm groeit. Maar is dat wel zo? Wel, als men kijkt naar het inkomen, dan is er wat dat betreft geen eensgezindheid, zelfs niet over de manier waarop we de inkomensongelijkheid moeten definiëren en meten. Toch zijn er onderzoeken die suggereren dat de inkomensongelijkheid eerder af- dan toeneemt. Hoe dan ook kunnen er hier geen ferme uitspraken over gedaan worden. Wat wél vaststaat, is dat voor wat betreft een hele reeks andere – belangrijke – indicatoren de kloof tussen rijk en arm wel degelijk verminderd, in plaats van toeneemt. De verschillen in levensverwachting bijvoorbeeld tussen het rijke Westen en het arme Zuiden nemen af. Hetzelfde geldt voor kindersterfte, ondervoeding, onderwijs. Ook de verspreiding van verschillende technologieën wordt steeds minder ongelijk.

Of het met het milieu slechter of beter gaat is een dusdanig betwiste zaak dat ik me er niet over uitspreek. Maar sinds Björn Lomborg mogen we toch aannemen dat de geruchten over de dood van de natuur fel zijn overdreven. Er is natuurlijk het probleem van de opwarming van de aarde; maar in tegenstelling tot wat sommige berichten in de pers doen geloven, zijn de gevolgen ervan niet voor alle regio’s in de wereld negatief.

Punt is natuurlijk dat mensen als Willy Claes hun geliefkoosd staatsinternationalisme niet zomaar zullen opgeven. Zelfs indien de door Claes aangehaalde problemen minder erg blijken te zijn dan aangenomen, staat het in de sterren geschreven dat hij er andere zal proberen aan te halen om zijn “globale” aanpak te verdedigen.

En hierin schuilt een bijzonder gevaar. Het gevaar namelijk van de totalitaire bedreiging, dewelke uit de doeken wordt gedaan door Bryan Caplan in dit boeiend maar ook verontrustend werkstuk.

Hoe is het mogelijk dat we in een tijdperk van democratisering en net nu we een totalitaire tiran als Saddam Hussein hebben afgezet, we het totalitarisme als een bedreiging moeten aanzien?

Welnu, zegt Caplan, wat we ons moeten afvragen is waarom totalitaire systemen zo onstabiel zijn gebleken. Hoe komt het dat het nazime, het stalinisme en het maoďsme uiteindelijk ten onder zijn gegaan? Als we dat weten en als we beseffen dat de redenen van instabiliteit in de toekomst wel eens afwezig kunnen zijn, dan volgt daaruit dat een stabiel en zelfs eeuwig totalitair systeem mogelijk wordt.

Welk zijn nu deze oorzaken van instabiliteit? Caplan gaat daarvoor ten rade bij die grote analist van het totalitarisme: George Orwell. Orwell schreef:
There are only four ways in which a ruling group can fall from power. Either it is conquered from without, or it governs so inefficiently that the masses are stirred to revolt, or it allows a strong and discontented Middle Group to come into being, or it loses its own self-confidence and willingness to govern... A ruling class which could guard against all of them would remain in power permanently. Ultimately the determining factor is the mental attitude of the ruling class itself.


In feite kan een totalitair regime op twee wijze in haar bestaan worden ondermijnd: ofwel door een bedreiging van binnenuit, ofwel een bedreiging van buiten uit. Met het verdwijnen van de dictator verdwijnt vaak ook het totalitair regime: de dood van Hitler was het einde van het nazisme, de dood van Stalin luidde het einde van het stalinisme in. Natuurlijk kwam met de dood van Stalin er geen einde aan het totalitaire regime in de Soviet-Unie. Reden daarvoor was dat de heersende klasse natuurlijk er alle belang bij had het regime verder te zetten. Hun “goesting” om te overheersen was nog niet verdwenen, als het ware. Daarvoor moesten de scherpe kantje er wat worden van afgevijld, maar de essentie bleef van kracht. Punt is dat zolang de heersende klasse een oplossing kan vinden voor de opvolging van de overleden dictator en zolang ze zelf de eenheid binnen de rangen kan bewaren, er hen niets van weerhoudt om eeuwig te regeren. Caplan stelt nu dat met de technologische vorderingen bijvoorbeeld inzake genetische manipulatie dergelijke “brave new world” wel eens realiteit kan worden.

Het merkwaardige is nu dat het nazisme in feite veel stabieler was dan het stalinisme. Stalin had veel meer bloedvergieten nodig om zijn echte en zijn vermeende vijanden uit te schakelen dan Hitler. Zelfs ten tijde van oorlog had de bevolking van Duitsland relatief weinig te lijden onder het totalitair nazistisch regime (wel van geallieerde bombardementen), tenzij je natuurlijk jood was, of soldaat.

Toch was het veel sneller afgelopen met Hitler dan met Stalin. De reden natuurlijk was dat Hitler geen nazisme zocht in één land, maar min of meer de wereld wilde veroveren. En dus werd, met een aantal uitzonderingen, die hele wereld zijn vijand. Het Hitler-regime is ten onder gegaan aan zijn eigen expansiedrift. Er is geen reden om te geloven dat als nazi-Duitsland geen bedreiging had gevormd voor zijn buren het regime snel ten onder zou zijn gegaan. Het had misschien even lang kunnen duren als het communisme.

Kortom, zonder bedreiging van buitenaf en wanneer men de opvolgingskwestie kan oplossen kan een totalitair regime in principe eeuwig duren.

En wanneer is er geen bedreiging van buitenaf? Wanneer dat regime het enige regime op aarde is natuurlijk.

Caplan vreest nu dat wanneer we alsmaar meer problemen gaan definiëren als globaal van karakter die dus enkel op globaal niveau kunnen worden aangepakt, de roep om een sterke wereldregering met uitgebreide bevoegdheden ook alleen maar sterker zal worden. Zo ver zijn we uiteraard nog niet, maar de eerste tendensen zijn wel zichtbaar. Het meest voor de hand liggend voorbeeld is de opwarming van de aarde waar inderdaad sommigen fel pleiten voor internationale afspraken waarbij de bevoegdheden en macht van de “natie-staten” ondergeschikt worden gemaakt. En in deze kaderen ook de uitspraken van Willy Claes.

Caplan stelt dus dan we ons op een hellend vlak begeven richting wereldregering waar geen enkele tegenmacht meer tegenover staat. Als de vooruitgang inzake biotechnologie dan ook nog eens het opvolgingsprobleem van de nieuwe heersende wereldklasse kan oplossen, zitten we met een totalitair regime dat geen vijanden en bedreigingen meer heeft en dus in principe eeuwigdurend wordt. Caplan stelt duidelijk dat wanneer de keuze gaat tussen allemaal ten onder gaan aan “global warming” of het leven onder een eeuwige “brave new world”, hij niet zeker is dat de tweede optie wel de voorkeur verdient.

Natuurlijk is het niet zeker dat als we ons eenmaal op een hellend vlak bevinden we alleen maar naar beneden kunnen storten. Wellicht kunnen we nog afremmen en zelfs rechtsomkeer maken. Maar daarvoor zijn er remmen nodig. Een van die remmen uiteraard is een blijvende aanwezigheid van lokale staten. Een andere rem is het voorkomen dat biotechnologie en genetische manipulatie een monopolie van de overheid wordt.

Ten slotte moeten we vooral zeer kritisch blijven tegenover diegenen die, doomscenario’s in de hand, pleiten voor een globale aanpak. Een dictatoriaal regime heeft vaak zelf een vijandbeeld nodig om het eigen terreurregime te verantwoorden. Zonder het kapitalisme had Stalin zijn vijanden nooit als klasseverraders kunnen liquideren. En zonder Duitsland had Stalin nooit zijn binnenlandse tegenstanders als landverraders kunnen uitschakelen. Welnu de nieuwe “internationale bedreigingen en uitdagingen” die Claes aanhaalt, spelen nu de rol van het kapitalisme en van Duitsland in de tijd van Stalin. Ze zijn het alibi om te pleiten voor een wereldregering en om de tegenstand daartegen langzaam maar zeker op te ruimen.

Maar daarmee stapt men in de val van de totalitaire verleiding.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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24/11/2005
Good news

Sebastian Mallaby reports that actor Brad Pitt could become a supporter for trade liberalisation. It would indeed be nice if a celebrety could support a real progressive cause once in a while.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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22/11/2005
Why o why are we ruled by these liars?

They do lie about everything don’t they?

In the largest-ever study of marijuana and depression, to be published in the journal Addictive Behaviors, daily or weekly marijuana users had fewer symptoms of depression than non-users. Marijuana users were also more likely to report positive moods and fewer somatic complaints such as sleeplessness. Noteworthy differences were also found between those using marijuana for medical purposes and non-medical or "recreational" users. The new research appears to contradict statements by some government officials suggesting that marijuana is a cause of depression. For example, in a May 3, 2005, press release from the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, ONDCP Director John Walters said, "Marijuana use, particularly during the teen years, can lead to depression, thoughts of suicide and schizophrenia." "Not only does marijuana not cause depression, it looks like it may actually alleviate it," said Mitch Earleywine, co-author of the new study and associate professor of psychology at the University at Albany, State University of New York. The study is the first to specifically look at depression in medical marijuana users as compared to non-medical users. The most common complaints listed by medical users surveyed were nausea, vomiting, cancer, attention deficit and poor appetite. Medical users generally were more depressed and had more somatic complaints than non-medical users, but still reported fewer such symptoms than non-users. "Those who use marijuana to battle the symptoms of illness may be depressed because of their illness, not because of marijuana," Earleywine said. "Studies that do not identify medical use might falsely implicate marijuana, rather than sickness, as the cause of depressed feelings." Drug Czar John Walters has tried to frighten Americans about marijuana, using exaggerated and incomplete data cherry-picked to support his ideology," said Rob Kampia, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project in Washington, D.C. "Science should be used to inform policy, not manipulated to scare the public."
Fire John Walters. And impeach his boss. Do it now.
(Hat Tip: Free-Market.Net)

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22/11/2005
File sharing: beneficial?

Well, I think this summery of research makes it kind of official: on average file sharing has positive effects. It’s good for the little ones and bad for the big boys. And while it’s bad for the music industry it’s three times as good for society. Which makes it kind of ironic that the big boys and the music industry are gaining ground in their fight against file sharing:

An explosion in research (mainly dependent on access to proprietary data) as a result of public interest in these issues means that we are now in a position to provide answers with some degree of certainty. The basic result is that online illegal file-sharing does have a negative impact on traditional sales. The size of this effect is debated, and ranges from 0 to 100% of the sales decline in recent years, but a figure of between 20 and 40% would be a reasonable consensus value (i.e. that file-sharing accounted for 20-40% of the decline in sales not a 20-40% decline in sales). Beyond this basic result several other very interesting facts have emerged. First is the differential impact of file-sharing on an artist depending on their existing popularity. According to Blackburn who investigates this issue the ‘bottom’ 3/4 of artists sell more as a consequence of file-sharing while the top 1/4 sell less. Second is the first tentative estimates (by Waldfogel and Rob) of the welfare consequences of file-sharing. Waldfogel and Rob’s dramatic result is that file-sharing on average yields a gain to society three times the loss to the music industry in lost sales. While, as they emphasize, this result is preliminary and based on limited data it indicates the urgent need for more research on this issue as well as the possibility to have a win-win situation in which both creators and the public get a better deal via a change to alternative compensation system such as a levy.
(Hat Tip: Alex Tabarrok)

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22/11/2005
Population growth: beneficial?

Well, i guess this interview makes it kind of official. On average, population growth has positive effects. Which is also kind of ironic, because in many parts of the world it’s no longer population growth that we see:

RF: There are some who have argued that population growth will ultimately lead to severe social and economic problems. I’m thinking of people like Paul Ehrlich, for instance. And then there are others — Julian Simon probably being the most prominent example — who have argued that population growth has unambiguously positive effects. Let us assume that these two positions define the extreme positions of the debate. Which one do you find more consistent with the evidence?

Moffitt: Although I have done work on the economics of fertility, I have not done work on this specific question. However, I have followed the debate fairly closely. As far as I can tell, the best work on that issue can be found in a couple of volumes put out by the National Academy of Sciences that examined how population growth affects a whole host of issues, including the environment, health, per-capita income, and others. And when you look at the data, it’s fairly hard to find major negative consequences of population growth. You can build models where this might be the case, but the empirical evidence seems fairly straightforward, and it is closer to Julian Simon’s view than to Paul Ehrlich’s.

I think that economists have generally been persuaded that population growth, on average, has positive effects — and so, too, have demographers, a group that used to include a pretty large number of population growth opponents. Also, I think most people would agree that we do not face a “population bomb” except, possibly, in Africa, and AIDS has changed things rather dramatically there. Quite the opposite: In many developed countries, population growth is now below the replacement rate.
(Hat tip: Bryan Caplan)

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22/11/2005
Pleidooi voor meer buitenland

Af en toe ook eens een onvriendelijk woordje over de werkgevers moet zeker kunnen. Net zoals de vakbonden is ook de werkgevers een corporatistische reflex niet vreemd. En corporatisme staat op gespannen voet met liberalisme.

Waarover gaat het? De onderhandelingen voor de verdere vrijmaking van de wereldhandel in het kader van de WHO zitten in het slop. Dat is niet naar de zin van de Belgische werkgevers van het VBO. Volgens Rudi Thomaes, gedelegeerd bestuurder van het VBO betekent dit dat de markten van een aantal belangrijke “ontwikkelingslanden" – hij noemt India, China, Brazilië – gesloten blijven voor onze eigen ondernemers. Alsof het Belgische bedrijfsleven sowieso veel heeft aan het openen van die markten: onze export blijft in overweldigende mate gericht op de naaste buurlanden, en in tweede orde op Europa. Het aantal bedrijven dat verder kijkt is als het ware op één hand te tellen. Misschien ook eens die hand in eigen boezem steken?
(Als Fa Quix, de baas van de textielfederatie, de hype rond China wil relativeren, heeft hij zeker op één punt gelijk. Het openen van de Chinese markt zal maar een zeer beperkt aantal grote ondernemingen ten goede komen. Het is voor die ondernemingen dat Thomaes spreekt, niet voor de talloze kleine en middelgrote ondernemingen.)

Anderzijds, zo stel Thomaes, zijn diezelfde landen geen ontwikkelingslanden meer. Neen, in sommige sectoren zijn ze veeleer beduchte concurrenten geworden. Mij lijkt het ene echter niet in tegenspraak te zijn met het andere. In ontwikkelingslanden ligt de loonkost veel lager dan bij ons: alleen al op basis van dat voordeel ligt het voor de hand dat zelfs de armste van die landen in bepaalde sectoren zeker met ons kunnen concurreren.

Nu ligt vaak de productiviteit er ook veel lager, wat het voordeel in loonkosten teniet doet. Sommige landen slagen er echter wel in om de productiviteit op te krikken zonder dat de lonen één op één mee volgen. En zo creëert men wel een competitief voordeel in de sectoren waar dat lukt. Maar één van de belangrijkste methoden om die productiviteit te verhogen is door de arbeiders te laten werken met hoogwaardige machines en apparatuur. Die hoogwaardige kapitaalgoederen worden vrijwel alleen in het rijke Westen geproduceerd. Dit is dan ook de reden waarom China – teneinde een competitief voordeel in de textielsector te creëren en te behouden – bij het Westen komt aankloppen om dergelijke machines aan te schaffen. Het zijn onder andere West-Vlaamse bedrijven die hiervan profiteren.

Punt is dat het zelfs voor ontwikkelingslanden mogelijk moet zijn om in sommige sectoren een “geduchte concurrent” te worden. Dat Thomaes dit een verontrustende evolutie vindt en daarom de WHO oproept om ook de ontwikkelinglanden te verplichten om hun markten te openen, was vanuit werkgeverszijde te verwachten.

Erger is dat het VBO hier het belang van de ondernemingen gelijk stelt met het algemeen belang. Het forceren van de marktopening van ontwikkelingslanden wordt gelijk gesteld met de creatie van welvaart en met de kans op een verbetering van de leefomstandigheden. Hier neemt de gedelegeerd-bestuurder enigszins een loopje met de waarheid. Neen, dat is de straf uitgedrukt. Maar aan de grondslag van zijn uitspraak ligt wel een levensgrote misvatting.

Als we het VBO mogen geloven dan is méér export goed, en méér import slecht. Het is goed dat India & Co hun markten openen zodat we meer naar hen kunnen exporteren, maar slecht dat ze geduchte concurrenten van ons zijn en proberen hun producten op onze markt af te zetten.

Theorie sinds Adam Smith en de realiteit tonen echter aan dat het precies omgekeerd is.

De nuchtere vaststelling is dat we niet in alles even goed zijn. Het loont dan ook om je als land te specialiseren in die dingen waar je het minst slecht in bent. De rest kan je dan gewoon importeren.

Om die import te betalen, moet je uiteindelijk wel exporteren. Maar export is niet goed op zich, het dient inderdaad enkel om de centjes te verdienen voor de import. Stel dat je ergens een eeuwigdurende en renteloze lening zou kunnen aangaan om die import te betalen: dat zou een veel beter alternatief zijn dan om al je inspanningen en tijd te steken in het openbreken van markten en het concurreren om marktaandeel. Export is een kostelijke onderneming. Alleen is het alternatief van zo’n lening natuurlijk niet voorhanden.

Wanneer je de zaak op deze manier bekijkt dan wordt meteen duidelijk dat de opkomst van geduchte concurrenten eerder beschouwd moet worden als een pluspunt dan als een nadeel. Nieuwe concurrenten leiden een verhoging van het aanbod, een daling van de prijs en meer keuzemogelijkheid.

Allemaal zijn we voorstander van meer concurrentie in de binnenlandse energiemarkt, precies om dezelfde redenen: meer aanbod, een daling van de prijs. Maar wanneer die concurrentie uit het buitenland komt dan zien we die voordelen plots niet meer… Competitie op de binnenlandse energiemarkt is goed, maar wanneer Chinese bedrijven gaan concurreren met onze textielondernemingen, of Indiase bedrijven op vlak van ICT, dan wordt een plots een uitdaging en een bedreiging? Bedreiging voor wie? Niet voor de consument. Het is voor de consument helemaal geen probleem wanneer de containers vol zitten met goedkope Chinese goederen.

Nu is Thomaes uiteraard geen verdediger van de belangen van de gewone burger en de consument – al doet hij zich wel in die hoedanigheid voor - nee, hij verdedigt de belangen van de bedrijven. Maar dan kun je deze vraag stellen: welke bedrijven? Ook veel bedrijven zijn uiteindelijk consument: van grondstoffen, van halfafgewerkte producten, van diensten uit India…

Wanneer een onderneming beconcurreerd wordt door andere ondernemingen staat het voor de keuze: ofwel betekent die concurrentie een stimulans om het zelf beter te doen, meer te innoveren, efficiënter te worden en meer kwaliteitsvolle producten te maken tegen een lagere prijs. Ofwel gaat het bedrijf over de kop. De vrijgekomen bedrijfsmiddelen kunnen dan elders efficiënter worden ingezet. Dit is wat de vermaarde Oostenrijke econoom Schumpeter “creatieve destructie” heeft genoemd: het is de wijze waarop een economie groeit en meer welvaart creëert. Ook hier weer echter geldt de merkwaardige vaststelling dat wat we als normaal aanvaarden op de binnenlandse markt, plots een bedreiging wordt wanneer de concurrentie uit het “buitenland” komt.

Nu heeft Thomaes wél een punt dat Brazilië, China en India er zelf ook goed aan zouden doen om hun markt te openen. Immers, ook voor hen geldt dat een economie baat heeft bij concurrentie en goederen uit het buitenland. Ook voor hen geldt dat economische groei afhangt van het zich specialiseren in de sectoren waar men een comparatief voordeel in heeft om vervolgens de rest te importeren.

Maar ik vrees wel dat die landen hun markten enkel gaan openen wanneer we er hen van kunnen overtuigen dat openheid voor hén goed is, en niet enkel voor een klein aantal van onze bedrijven. Zo lang we zelf niet overtuigd zijn van de voordelen van échte vrijhandel is het moeilijk om andere landen – die minder ver ontwikkeld zijn – van het tegendeel te doordringen. Zo lang we zelf het “mercantilisme” (export goed, import slecht) blijven aanhangen, zal het evenzeer moeilijk blijven anderen te overtuigen hun eigen mercantiele politiek op te geven.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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21/11/2005
Mexico: the new Colombia?

Ted Galen Carpenter, of the libertarian Cato Institute, fears that Mexico is becoming another Columbia: a country plagued by corruption and violence. Cause: the drugs war. Major cullpritt: United States drugs policy:

U.S. policy seems to assume that if the Mexican government can eliminate the top drug lords, their organizations will fall apart, thereby greatly reducing the flow of illegal drugs to the United States. Thus, U.S. officials have rejoiced at the willingness of President Fox’s administration to make the drug war—and especially the capture of major drug-trafficking figures—a high priority. Since Fox took office in 2000, Mexico has arrested more than 36,000 drug traffickers, including top figures from nearly all the cartels. That neutralizing drug kingpins will achieve a lasting reduction in drug trafficking is the same belief that U.S. officials embraced with respect to the crackdown on the Medellín and Cali cartels in Colombia during the 1990s. Subsequent developments proved the assumption to be erroneous. The elimination of those two cartels merely decentralized the Colombian drug trade. Instead of two large organizations controlling the trade, today some 300 much smaller, loosely organized groups do so. More to the point, the arrests and killings of numerous top drug lords in both Colombia and Mexico over the years have not had a meaningful impact on the quantity of drugs entering the United States. Cutting off one head of the drug-smuggling Hydra merely results in more heads taking its place. Jorge Chabat, a Mexican security and drug policy analyst, notes: “For years, the U.S. told Mexico’s government, ‘The problem is that the narcos are still powerful because you don’t dismantle the gangs.’ Now they’re doing just that . . . and the narcos are more powerful than ever.” Mexico can still avoid going down the same tragic path as Colombia, but time is growing short. Washington had better pay far more attention to the problem than it has to this point, and U.S. officials need to come up with better answers than the ineffectual and discredited policies of the past. If Washington continues to pursue a prohibitionist strategy, the violence and corruption that have convulsed Colombia will become dominant and permanent features of Mexico’s life as well. The illicit drug trade has already penetrated the country’s economy and society to an unhealthy degree.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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21/11/2005
A solution for global warming?

From the Environmental News Network:

An experimental project in Canada to inject carbon dioxide into oil fields has proven successful, removing 5 million tons of the heat-trapping "greenhouse" gas, while enhancing oil recovery, the Energy Department said Tuesday. If the methodology could be applied worldwide, from one-third to one-half of the carbon dioxide emissions that go into the atmosphere could be eliminated over the next century and billions of barrels of additional oil could be recovered, the department said.
Like all technological solutions this also will have some problems of it’s own, but it does seem to be very promising to me. For one thing, isn’t the elimination of one-third to on-half of carbon dioxide emissions exactly what we are looking for?
(Hat Tip: Tim Haab)

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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21/11/2005
Quote of the day

I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn’t work.
G.W. Bush standing before locked doors trying to leave a press conference.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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21/11/2005
al-Zarqawi dead?

I hope this is true:

The Elaph Arab media website reported on Sunday that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the head of the al-Qaida in Iraq terror group, may have been killed in Iraq on Sunday afternoon when eight terrorists blew themselves up in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. The unconfirmed report claimed that the explosions occurred while coalition forces surrounded the house in which al-Zarqawi was hiding. American and Iraqi forces are looking into the report.
UPDATE

Damn!

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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20/11/2005
Moet Radio Donna geprivatiseerd worden?

Moet Radio Donna geprivatiseerd worden? De vraag staat momenteel niet echt op de politieke agenda en de kans is klein dat de vraag gesteld zal worden bij afsluiten van het nieuwe beheerscontract tussen de Vlaamse overheid en de VRT.

We stellen de vraag dan maar hier. Eerst dit. Waarom niet hoger mikken? Waarom niet Eén verkopen aan de private sector? Eén is toch een pretnet, dat evengoed gebracht kan worden door een commerciële omroep?

De redenering tegen, gaat hier als volgt. Eén is geen pretnet: het is een generalistisch net. Een openbare omroep, zeker wat de televisie betreft, moet zoveel als mogelijk mensen bereiken: ook voor nieuws, educatie en cultuur. De minder sexy onderwerpen zeg maar. Maar om deze doelstelling te behalen moet de VRT ook populaire ontspanningsprogramma’s kunnen brengen. Deze programma’s kunnen dan als trekker dienen voor kunst, nieuws en wetenschap. Eén mag geen ghetto-zender worden.

Zonder deze redenering volledig te onderschrijven, valt er toch wel iets voor te zeggen. Een openbare omroep waar we allemaal voor moeten betalen, maar die er is voor een beperkte groep meerwaardezoekers is onaanvaardbaar.

Het punt is dat de situatie nogal verschillend is tussen radio en televisie. Radio bij de VRT kent geen generalistische zender zoals Eén dat is bij de televisie. Alle radio’s – ook radio 2 en Donna – hebben een bepaalde doelgroep. Voor Radio 1 is dat zij die op zoek zijn naar informatie, Radio 2 richt zich tot “ouderen” die houden van populaire muziek, Radio Donna is het pretnet, Studio Brussel is er voor alternatieve jongeren en bij Klara moet je zijn voor klassieke muziek, kunst en cultuur. Een generalistisch net, ten andere, is bij radio niet zo evident.

Evenmin kan men beweren dat sommige van deze zenders als populaire trekker moeten dienen voor de anderen. Het is totaal ongeloofwaardig als men stelt dat men Donna nodig heeft om meer luisteraars te trekken voor Radio 1 of Klara. Men heeft Donna nodig als men persé wil concurreren met Q-Music, maar dat gaat om dezelfde doelgroep. Hoe men via Donna luisteraars van Q-Music er wil toe aanzetten ook te kiezen voor Radio 1 of Klara is een raadsel.

Bij televisie kan men argumenteren dat de situatie enigszins anders ligt. Als Eén geen populaire ontspanningsprogramma’s zou mogen brengen dan verwordt Eén tot een ghettozender die nog maar door een beperkt aantal mensen bekeken wordt. En daar lijden ook de informatieve programma’s onder, de programma’s die behoren tot de eigenlijke opdracht van een openbare omroep.

Maar zoals gezegd speelt dit niet bij Radio. Alle radio’s zijn reeds ghettozenders, met hun eigen bijzonder ghetto. En of er in dat ghetto veel volk woont of niet maakt uiteindelijk geen verschil. Bovendien is er tussen de ghetto’s weinig kruisbestuiving. Integendeel, er wordt onderling beconcurreert. Donna probeert luisteraars af te snoepen van Radio 2 en omgekeerd. En sinds Studio-Brussel man Jan Hautekiet nethoofd is bij Radio 1 begint deze laatste op muzikaal gebiedt dezelfde groep luisteraars te bedienen als Studio Brussel. Het kan toch niet de bedoeling zijn dat met overheidsgeld de openbare omroep met verschillende zenders dezelfde groepen gaat bedienen. Dat is verspilling van belastingsgeld.

De vraag die men zich bij radio moet stellen is dan ook: is het nodig dat de openbare omroep al die verschillende ghetto’s probeert de bedienen? Is het verantwoord dat de openbare omroep met publieke middelen een radio runt die enkel tot doel heeft te amuseren? Pretnet Donna brengt inderdaad volgens eigen cijfers van de VRT ontstellend weinig cultuur, zelfs niet cultuur die voor de eigen doelgroep interessant kan zijn. Alles is gericht op het beconcurreren van het privaat initiatief, niet het vervullen van één of andere publieke taak. En dat, nogmaals, voor een groot deel met overheidsgeld.

Ik denk dan ook dat er geen enkele reden is om Donna niet te privatiseren. Het is een doodgewone commerciële omroep met een commercieel oogmerk, zonder publieke dienstverlening en zonder een trekkersrol naar de andere omroepen. Een privatisering van Donna zal niet tot gevolg hebben dat er minder mensen zullen luisteren naar Radio 1 of Klara. Bovendien heeft de openbare omroep dan meer middelen vrij om dat te spenderen aan haar eigenlijke taak.

Moet Radio 2 geprivatiseerd worden? Wel, voor een stuk kan ook hier zeker dezelfde redenering worden gevolgd dan bij Donna. Hetzelfde geldt voor Studio Brussel, al zal het hier misschien nodig zijn dat de overheid aan het desbetreffend privaat initiatief bepaalde regels oplegt. Maar er is geen enkele reden om te geloven dat de privé-sector niet in staat zou zijn om even goed als de VRT een jongerenzender uit te baten. Of men daarvoor interesse heeft – gezien het beperkte marktaandeel van StuBru - is natuurlijk een andere zaak.

Conclusie? Verkoop Donna, zo snel mogelijk. En bestudeer ook een eventuele privatisering van Studio Brussel en Radio 2. Met de frequenties die vrijkomen kan men bovendien nog meer bijzondere dingen doen. Begin er maar aan zou ik zeggen.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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20/11/2005
Kill that Byrd!

A victory for the World Trade Organization:

The U.S. House of Representatives voted on Friday to kill a trade program that has paid more than $1 billion to U.S. companies since 2000 and been declared illegal by the World Trade Organization. Congressional investigators released a report in September showing that nearly $500 million in payments under the program went to just five companies, and that two-thirds of total payments went to three industries: bearings, candles and steel.
Free trade is there for consumers, not for five big inefficient private companies that rather lobby politicans instead of making products well. Here we seem to have an international organization the Americans listen too...

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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20/11/2005
The real insurgents

Joe Katzman reports:

I learned from watching how Christopher Hitchens approached his topics: with quiet assurance, with wit, and with humanity. Like I said, it wasn’t one of his strongest performances - but all of those traits shone through anyway. When he spoke of the "realist" school of international relations, he didn’t focus on political theory - he focused on stories from his time among the Kurds shortly after Desert Storm. Or a recent dinner at his house with Kurdish, Sunni and Shi’te guests who discussed politics and elections. These people had been real insurgents, people’s warriors who had led resistance to Saddam’s tyranny at great risk - NOT the torturers and lackeys of a fallen fascist regime, aligned with foreign fanatics to practice their trade anew as paramilitary death squads who target children. Calmly, but in a tone that left no doubts of his conviction, Hitchens spoke of the terrible human and moral toll of the "realist" policies that its proponents called (without an ounce of irony or reflection) "peace." Of course, he finished that off by pointing out how many of the dictatorships the realists wish to do business with/ bribe/ be bribed by are unraveling anyway, as the forces of change now afoot pull their socieities apart. Or preparing to implode as fascism’s inherent death wish impulses assert themselves. "Realism" wasn’t only immoral, he noted - it was often profoundly unrealistic.


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20/11/2005
A hostile place for libertarians

It’s a disconcerting thought that even in America libertarians are into the cold. At least they are not welcome anymore in the Republican Party. Daniel Drezner:

I have long recognized that that the Republican party has become a less friendly place over the years for a libertarian who nonetheless wants the government to function well in its limited capacity. However, I think over the past few years we’ve gone from "unfriendly" to "pretty damn hostile".
Of course Democrats will say that they can run the government better than Republicans. But they will not be the party of limited government. They even don’t pretend anymore that they are.

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20/11/2005
Dominating the internet

Robert Cringely writes that the next version of the internet will be dominated by Google. Microsoft is finished. And the internet will never be run by the United Nations:

And there lies the differences between the two companies. Last week, I wrote about Windows Live and Office Live as Microsoft’s best attempts at pretending to be Google. And Google will do those kinds of applications, too. But they’ll build them atop a network infrastructure that Microsoft can’t match. But that doesn’t mean Microsoft customers will be denied access to the Google Internet. Quite the contrary. Google would be insane to exclude Microsoft customers, which will be as welcome as any other. Only Google will be benefiting far more than Microsoft from that usage. Google has the reach and the resources to make this work. There are only so many fiber networks and they’ll be BUYING service from those outfits -- many of which are in or near bankruptcy. Say the containers cost $500,000 each in volume and $500,000 per year to run. That’s $300 million to essentially co-opt the Internet. And you know whose strategy this is? Wal-Mart’s. And unless Google comes up with an ecosystem to allow their survival, that means all the other web services companies will be marginalized. There will be startups and little guys, but no medium-sized companies. ISPs, which we’ve thought of as a threatened species, won’t be touched, but then their profit margins are so low they aren’t worth touching. After all, Wal-Mart doesn’t try to own the roads its goods are carried over. And the final result is that Web 2.0 IS Google. Microsoft can’t compete. Yahoo probably can’t compete. Sun and IBM are like remora, along for the ride. And what does it all cost, maybe $1 billion? That’s less than Microsoft spends on legal settlements each year. Game over.
Thanks to Jonathan at Chicago Boyz for the link. Hat tip: Luc Van Braekel. On the other hand, Abiola Lapite isn’t too much impressed by Google Print.

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19/11/2005
Stability and liberty

Via Norm a ranking of Middle-East countries according to 15 indicators of political and civil liberties. The most democratic and liberal countries are Israel, Lebanon, Morocco, the Palestinian Territories and ...Iraq.

The least democratic countries are Saudi Arabia, Syria and, worst of all, Libya.

Obviously stability and liberty do not go hand in hand. Stability for the rulers, that is.

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18/11/2005
Who is immoral?

Many Western NGO’s are violently opposed against the privatization of water. They say it hurts the weak and the poor. But it does not. In the wake of a major privatization campaign in Argentina, children mortality fell.

The real failing of those well-meaning NGO’s however is that they will not be convinced by the facts. They consider it as a moral imperative that water is a right. Selling water by private companies just is immoral, and needs to be condemned all the time, even when it benefits the people they say to represent. They fail to see that even with all it’s problems, it still may be better to privatize water. Because as Alex Tabarrok points out, governments in poor countries often are not up to the task.

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18/11/2005
Riots in France: a marxist view?

Johan Norberg provides some interesting numbers, which give some insights into the failing French social model.
US UK France
Unemployment % 5,1 4,7 9,8
% of that long-term 13 21 41
Very satisfied with life % 58 33 18

And here is another problematic number. I’m not a marxist but if you are looking for some possible economic explanations of the riots in France this is a good place to start.

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18/11/2005
Globalizations forward momentum

On 9/11/2001 some people thought we had witnessed the end of globalization. Some guy in a cave in the then most backward country in the world had done the trick. But globalization did not end then. And it’s back in full force now. A communist backed government of a large country is considering saying yes to foreign direct investment:

India’s Communist-backed government will on Thursday afternoon consider a sweeping liberalisation of foreign direct investment rules that would kick start a long-stalled programme of economic reforms. Kamal Nath, India’s minister for commerce and industry, has proposed allowing 100 per cent foreign direct investment in a range of sectors, including airport construction, oil & gas infrastructure and cash & carry wholesale trading. The cabinet will also debate whether to allow FDI in the exploration and mining of coal, lignite and diamonds, and in the cultivation of important plantation crops such as coffee, tea and rubber. “It’s big news as this is first time that such a specific sector review of foreign direct investment has been undertaken,” said a senior commerce ministry official, who warned that there was no guarantee the cabinet would approve Mr Nath’s proposals. India attracted $5.5bn in FDI in 2004-5, an increase of 18 per cent, but less than a tenth of the inflows into China. The government estimates that $150bn needs to be invested in upgrading the country’s infrastructure over the next 10 years. If the new rules are approved, they will also allow foreign investment to come in by the so-called “automatic route”, circumventing a cumbersome approvals process overseen by the Ministry of Finance’s Foreign Investment Promotion Board. Allowing 100 per cent foreign direct investment in airport construction would be a big boost to the ongoing privatisation process. High-profile groups such as Singapore’s Changi have withdrawn from bidding because of constraints on foreign operators. Permitting foreign groups to invest freely in India’s oil and gas infrastructure would be aimed at harnessing international capital for complex undertakings such as the laying of a proposed gas pipelines to Iran via Pakistan.
India could set a better example here than China. It is, after all, a democracy. Are others to follow?

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17/11/2005
Aid for trade

It’s not aid or trade. It’s not even aid and trade. But maybe it’s aid for trade. Jagdish Baghwati outlines a possible deal on world trade

there are also reasons to hope the current round can be finished in time to avoid the danger posed by the expiry of President George W. Bush’s fast track trade-negotiating authority in mid-2007 - a danger that is unusually great as general support erodes in the US for freeing trade.

In agriculture, widespread condemnation of rich-country subsidies as running at "$1bn a day" and "causing overproduction" is a massive exaggeration that makes the task of reducing subsidies seem politically intractable.

In fact, when one omits the subsidies that are "decoupled" from production and trade, the "coupled" subsidies that distort production and trade and that alone should matter to other countries, are less than $100bn (Ł58bn); and here, too, the export subsidies are in the range of $3bn-$5bn annually. Clearly, the export subsidies are small enough to be negotiated away and a dent could surely be made in the "coupled" subsidies. The opposition of France and its allies to further cuts in EU tariffs and quotas (called "market access" in the negotiations) beyond what Peter Mandelson, EU trade commissioner, has offered so far could be a bottleneck. But it is likely that more could be squeezed from the EU in return for more reciprocal concessions in the final deal. The EU knows it has no comparative advantage in agriculture, so the reciprocity it needs has to come in manufactures and services.

It has to be said, however, that the Group of 20 countries, which includes the bigger developing countries such as India and Brazil, have tariffs on manufactures that are significantly higher than the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development average, cuts in which can be put on the table. Brazil has already indicated willingness to do so and India is also likely to play.

But then, the US has comparative advantage in agriculture, so it cannot ignore the demands of US farmers for "sectoral reciprocity" within agriculture itself from the Cairns group countries of agricultural producers such as Brazil and Mexico, which also have high tariff barriers on agriculture. The Cairns group should be willing to support a deal that cuts its members’ agricultural trade barriers in return for long-desired market access to the US.

What about services? The main drivers in the US and the EU are insurance companies and the banks. Their services, however, actually lubricate trade and the developing countries can surely be persuaded to take more quantitative commitments here, providing the EU and the US with additional quid pro quo for their agricultural concessions. The poorest countries must also be brought on board, although some hesitate to liberalise trade for fear they may lose tariff revenues on which they rely for public spending.

Others are afraid to liberalise because they lack adjustment assistance programmes to assist workers who may be laid off due to import competition. Then again, many enjoy preferences and fear "most favoured nation" tariff liberalisation under the Doha round because that would erode the value of their preferences. For all these problems, an "aid for trade" programme could be devised to provide aid funds systematically to respond to these tasks. Mr Lamy has endorsed the idea. It should bring many of the least-developed countries on board for Doha and must be acted upon forthwith. The outlines of such a deal that would close the Doha round are therefore clear. It remains for Mr Lamy to present them forcefully (in the tradition of the "Dunkel draft" that rescued the Uruguay round of talks) in Hong Kong, and to get the member states to follow with an extraordinary meeting within six months, in a pro-globalisation country such as Denmark, where the penultimate steps to finalising a deal by the end of 2006 and its approval by early 2007 would be taken. It can be done. It is up to us all to do it.


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17/11/2005
De terreur van de politieke correctheid

Wanneer correcte journalistiek het slachtoffer wordt van politieke correctheid dan kunnen we inderdaad spreken van terreur volgens mij. Of ga ik daarmee te ver? Hoe dan ook, hier is het voorval, zoals opgetekend door Skender, dat aanleiding heeft gegeven tot mijn oprisping. Oordeel dus vooral zelf:

Daarnet was er in Terzake een reportage over vrouwelijke zelfmoordterroristen wiens aanslag mislukte. Aan het begin van de reportage zie je een vrouw in haar cel de koran lezen. Bij dit beeld hoor je de commentaarstem zeggen dat ze haar koran nog vaak kan lezen, maar dat ze er nooit een passage in zal vinden die zelfmoordaanslagen goedkeurt. De koran verbiedt inderdaad zelfmoord, maar is dit verbod wel van toepassing op zelfmoordterroristen? "Onder de schaduw van het zwaard is het Paradijs" zei Mohammed (Bukhari, vol. 4, boek 56, nr. 2818). Allah belooft het paradijs aan allen die doden en gedood worden voor de islam (koran 9:111). Omdat zelfmoordterroristen zich niet opblazen om zelf te sterven, maar om zoveel mogelijk ongelovigen te doden, zien ze zichzelf niet als zelfmoordenaars maar als martelaars. Ze geven gevolg aan Allah’s oproep: "doodt de ongelovigen waar ge hen maar vindt, neemt hen gevangen en belegert hen en bereidt hun alle soorten hinderlaag" (koran 9:5) Dit soort martelarendom is niet eens een nieuw verschijnsel. Aan het einde van de elfde eeuw was er een Islamitische sekte: de Assassijnen, die op grote schaal politieke tegenstanders vermoordden. Zo goed als altijd gaven de moordenaars zich rustig over nadat ze de moord hadden uitgevoerd zodat ze terechtgesteld konden worden en in het paradijs konden gaan genieten van "jeugdige gezellen, gelijk in leeftijd" (koran 78:33) "van bescheiden blik met mooie ogen" (koran 37:48). Want Allah zegt: "Zo zal het zijn. En Wij zullen hen met schone meisjes die grote, mooie ogen hebben, verenigen." (koran 44:54) Misschien worden de vrouwelijke terroristen meer aangetrokken door de armbanden van goud en parels en de zijden gewaden (koran 22:23), maar ze zijn er rotsvast van overtuigd dat ze na hun dood recht naar het paradijs gaan en de betuttelende woorden van een VRT-journalist zullen daar niets aan veranderen.


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16/11/2005
Bush does the right thing

He calls for more political freedom in China:

President George W.Bush on Wednesday offered a direct rebuke to China by holding up Japan and Taiwan as examples of free and open societies and warning that the people of China had "legitimate" demands for more freedom of speech and religion. Opening his four-nation Asian tour with a speech in Kyoto on US-Asia relations, Mr Bush said: "As China reforms its economy, its leaders are finding that once the door to freedom is opened, even a crack, it cannot be closed: [they want] more freedom to express themselves, to worship without state control and to print Bibles and other sacred texts without fear of punishment."
And non-sacred texts aswell I hope. Mao’s works once were sacred too.

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15/11/2005
The war

Yes, Bush lied about the war. So did Blair. And lot’s of other politicians lied to. They never told us it was an ineffective war. They never told us that it causes much more crime than it solves. It’s a useless war, totally ineffective, with too much collateral damage and innocent victims. Yes, it’s a disgusting war, this war on drugs:

It’s unusual to see the numbers laid out so concisely:

· The UK’s estimated annual supply of heroin and cocaine is worth Ł4bn.

· There are 749 deaths annually from heroin and methadone use.

· Seizure rates of 60%-80% are needed to have a serious impact on the flow of drugs into Britain, but 20% has been achieved.

· Annual cost of crimes committed by drug users to support cocaine and heroin habits has reached Ł16bn a year, Ł24bn if health and social services costs are included.

4 billion of drugs cause 16 billion in crime. Yup, the illegality is the problem. Even leaving aside the fact that that very illegality boosts the 4 billion figure.
Yet another war I am against. Make love, not war!

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14/11/2005
A quote

A quote on Iraq:

Let me say it plainly: I not only concede, but I am convinced that President Bush believes genuinely in the course he urges upon us.
That’s Ted Kennedy talking. Here are some more quotes.

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14/11/2005
Good question

Daniel Drezner asks:

The administration might take some PR comfort in the WaPo’s assertion that, "The targeting of Jordan can hardly be blamed on the Iraq war," but it must accept the fact that the success of this attack (as opposed to a botched 1999 attempt) is directly attributable to the administration’s pre-invasion failure to take out Zarqawi and post0invasion failure to ensure basic security in Iraq.

For opponents, however, the irony is even more bitter. The Bush administration might have been full of it when it claimed a connection between Al Qaeda and Iraq prior to the invasion. However, as frustrating as it may be, Bush is correct to say that Iraq is now one of the focal points in the war against Al Qaeda -- the Jordan attacks are merely the latest evidence of this. As long as Zarqawi has a base of operations and a playground to train zealots, he will continue to be a potent source of trouble.

So, a question to those who advocate a pullout of U.S. forces from Iraq -- how would a U.S. withdrawal help in any way towards removing Iraq as a base of operations for Al Qaeda?


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14/11/2005
Africa: good governance is the key

Instead of saying: read the whole thing, i’m just posting it here in full. It’s that good:

Tanzanian President Benjamin Mkapa will step down this week, complying with his
At the same time that Mkapa hands over power as required by the law, he is urging his colleagues to discard the political system and warning other African leaders to be wary of the present competitive global political and economic order because globalization threatens to “exploit, denigrate, and humiliate Africa.” But one might ask whether Africa’s problems are really caused by globalization.

This message particularly smacks of a return to the pre-independence rhetoric that made the creation of political kingdoms a greater priority than development and fed the overwhelming urge of many leaders to remain in power long after the colonialists were gone. No wonder President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda has cunningly severed all ties with his country’s constitution since he managed to give himself a de facto third term.

These ideas are as dangerous today as ever. At a time when the continent strives to liberate itself from the expansive powers of postcolonial governments and the politicization of society brought about by them, the real need of the day is economic freedom. Alas, the economic situation is so bad in so many African countries that young men are fleeing their own governments, trekking through the vast and dangerous Sahara desert and struggling over heavily guarded barbed wires to look for better opportunities in Europe. Unfortunately, many die on this pilgrimage of freedom.

African countries greatly increased exports to the U.S. in 2004, generating revenues of over $26 billion in that year. Jeans made in Lesotho are sold in U.S. stores. Flowers from Kenya and vegetables from Senegal are regularly available in European shops. The use of mobile phones and the Internet is growing faster in Africa than anywhere else in the world, according to the United Nations.

Globalization can hardly be blamed for the fact that only 10 percent of Africa’s trade takes place among African countries themselves. With 750 million people living on the continent, the potential for the expansion of trade must be enormous. Very little trade has been allowed in this poorest of continents where tariffs are almost as high as 50 percent and where highway robbers dressed as customs officials block free exchange.

What is it that motivates Nigeria, which calls itself the giant of Africa, to ban the importation of ninety-six different products from Ghana when both countries have duty-free and quota-free access to the U.S. markets for 6,500 of their products? So what sort of globalization does Benjamin Mkapa want Africans to be wary of?

But the West is also guilty here as there is little incentive to encourage trade because foreign aid is piled on the leaders who make these economic policies.

It is widely reported that an African child dies of hunger and malnutrition every three seconds while in the same period African leaders steal $14,000 from their people and put it in foreign bank accounts. In the words of Milovan Djilas, they squander the nation’s wealth as though it was someone else’s and dip into it as if it were their own.

Isn’t it strange that exactly two weeks after the G8 deal that wrote off 80 percent of my country’s debt, all our parliamentarians, who earn $300 per month, are to receive $25,000 each in free car loans and $60 a day in rent allowance? I call it free car loans because five years ago they each received $20,000 but have yet to pay it back.

It is insulting that the bill for this lavish behavior is passed on to the disrespected poor as they struggle to pay a 40 percent tax on fuel that is used to support, among other things, government entities that consume almost one-third of the country’s fuel.

One would have thought that African leaders would be better advised to use resources to build the infrastructure that will increase the volume of trade within the continent and thereby improve economic activity. But President Benjamin Mkapa’s men are too busy harvesting where they have not sown.

You might ask why those in Niger go hungry when Nigeria, its next door neighbor, has abundant food. And how it is that Zimbabwe, a country that used to be the food basket of Southern Africa, now has thousands of starving citizens?

Does President Benjamin Mkapa know that African farmers use less than one-twentieth as much fertilizer as those in the West in part because import duties and red tape make fertilizer eight times as expensive as in Europe? For the same reasons, ordinary Africans pay ten times more for air travel than those on other continents.

Every ordinary African faces innumerable government-created bottlenecks in any enterprise they attempt. As the government has become the majority employer in these countries, the range of employment opportunities has been reduced and the government’s limitless public borrowing has crowded out the private sector’s access to capital.

Even the World Bank, one of the few remaining organizations still doling out free money to governments, now confirms that of the twenty countries in the world where it is most difficult to do business, seventeen are African.

Capital is a cowardly bird. It flies to safer places where it expects to earn better returns. 40 percent of Africa’s private investment takes place outside of the continent, while only 3 percent of Asia’s investment takes place overseas.

If there is to be any hope for long term prosperity in Africa, Africans must be given the predictability that comes with the rule of law, the protection of private property and free markets, and decentralized management of resources. This will harness local knowledge along with the creativity, diligence, and thrift that is natural to Africans.


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13/11/2005
Costs and (almost no) benefits

Via Abiola a study wich shows that the costs of Kyoto are way out of line with the benefits:
- costs: between now and 2010 from 0,8% to 3,1% less economic growth
- benefit: a net reduction of global emissions of 0,1%

How much do we need to reduce global emissions again?

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13/11/2005
Een kroonjuweel verkocht

Deze week werd na nog wat laatste strubbelingen het bod van Suez op de resterende aandelen van Electrabel afgerond. Suez bezit nu 90% van de aandelen.

Deze gedachte verontrust vele mensen. Vanuit verschillende hoeken werd dan ook opgeroepen om het bod van Suez, dat al de meerderheid van de aandelen van Electrabel heeft, af te wimpelen. Vlaamse bedrijven, zeker bedrijven actief in een basissector als energie, moeten Vlaams verankerd worden en blijven. Deze visie werd het felst geuit – niet onverwacht natuurlijk – door het Vlaams Belang. Maar ook bij CD&V waren er gelijkaardige stemmen te horen. Een voorbeeld is deze uitspraak van CD&V Vlaams-volksvertegenwoordiger en Senator Etienne Schouppe:

De beslissingscentra van een groot aantal van de belangrijkste Belgische bedrijven zijn dus nu in het buitenland, voornamelijk Frankrijk gevestigd. Ons land – en ook Vlaanderen – geraakt economisch gekoloniseerd. Het Belgische financiële establishment kan moeilijk verweten worden erg vaderlandslievend te hebben geageerd.
Ik begrijp die houding eigenlijk niet zo goed. Laten we eerst de problematiek bekijken vanuit de energiesector zelf, om vervolgens het verankeringsdebat open te trekken naar de gehele Vlaamse economie.

In de energiesector (voor de gemakkelijkheid beschouwen we enkel de elektriciteitssector, de problematiek is gelijklopend voor de gassector) zijn er grosso modo drie grote activiteiten: productie, transport (transmissie, distributie) en de verkoop en levering van elektriciteit.

Productie en verkoop zijn puur commerciële activiteiten die plaatsvinden in een – althans wettelijk – vrijgemaakte markt. Het enige wat de overheid hier moet doen is de concurrentie bevorderen door de intrede op de markt van nieuwe producenten te vergemakkelijken.

Transport anderzijds is en blijft een monopolieactiviteit. Van belang is dat de transmissienetbeheerder (Elia) en de distributienetbeheerders (intercommunales) alle producenten en leveranciers op een gelijke manier behandelen, omdat anders de concurrentie wordt scheefgetrokken. Dit vereist op zijn minst een regulering vanwege de overheid. In elk geval kan het niet dat één producent – in casu Electrabel – controle kan uitoefenen op het beheer van de netwerken omdat ze dan zichzelf kan bevoordelen ten nadele van andere producenten en leveranciers.

Wat is nu het gevolg van het overnamebod van Suez?

Op eerste zicht verandert dit eigenlijk niet veel. Suez was al meerderheidsaandeelhouder en bij gebrek aan een andere aandeelhouder die een blokkeringsminderheid (de gemeenten bezaten slechts 4,65% en overigens is het geen taak voor gemeenten om te participeren in een commercieel bedrijf) bezat in Electrabel maakte Suez al volledig de dienst uit bij onze nationale elecktriciteitsproducent. Het enige verschil is natuurlijk dat alle winst nu naar Frankrijk gaat. Maar in een markteconomie, zeker in een geglobaliseerde markteconomie, is het nu eenmaal logisch dat de winst uitgekeerd wordt aan de aandeelhouder. Of dat bedrijf nu uit Frankrijk, de VS of China komt maakt niet uit.

Ja, zullen sommigen zeggen, maar in Frankrijk zit daar een uitgekiende strategie achter, en dat maakt een groot verschil uit. Ik denk echter van niet, maar hier komen we nog op terug. Ten minste, wellicht zit daar inderdaad een strategie achter, maar ik denk niet dat het een groot verschil uitmaakt.

Vooral vanuit het Vlaams Belang wordt nu beweerd dat met het bod onze ganse energievoorziening nu in Franse handen is. Deze bewerking klopt niet. Integendeel, het bod is een uitstekende kans om de Franse invloed terug te dringen, met name in die onderdelen van de elektriciteitssector waar dit van belang is: het transport.

Ten eerste komt door het bod heel wat “Frans” cash geld terug naar Vlaanderen. Dat geld kan, en wordt, door de gemeenten gebruikt om het belang van Electrabel/Suez in Elia en in de intercommunales te verminderen. De Vlaamse verankering wordt dus groter. In elk geval kan één producent niet langer invloed uitoefenen op het beheer van de netten, wat de concurrentieverhoudingen verbetert.

Er is ten tweede nog een andere belangrijk voordeel. De volledige overname verzwakt de positie van Suez als producent. Zowat 85% van de elektriciteitsproductie is nog voor rekening van Electrabel. Zo lang Electrabel nog voor een stuk een Belgische onderneming was, was de redenering dat we deze onderneming moesten koesteren. Weliswaar ging het hier om een quasi-monopolist, maar in Europees verband gaat het om een klein bedrijf. Deze redenering valt nu weg. En inderdaad, de regering heeft reeds beslist dat Electrabel zijn ongebruikte productiecapaciteit zal moeten verkopen. Bovendien maakt het voorstel van Jean-Marie Dedecker, die voorstelt Electrabel, of ten minste het productiepark, op te splitsen, nu plots wel een kans. Waarom zouden we inderdaad een Frans bedrijf ontzien? Het ziet er dan ook naar uit dat de invloed van Suez/Electrabel in de productie sterk zal verminderen.

En daar is het uiteindelijk om te doen: om “eerlijke” concurrentieverhoudingen zodat de prijzen kunnen dalen, niet om de nationaliteit van de producent. Het overnamebod staat dit niet in de weg, maar lijkt dit eerder aan te moedigen.

Om al deze redenen zouden we eigenlijk blij moeten zijn met het bod.

Dit zal niet iedereen overtuigen, vooral niet diegenen in het “Vlaams-nationalistische” kamp. Zij zien met lede ogen aan hoe opnieuw een Belgisch bedrijf in Franse handen komt. Maar zoals we zagen is dit eigenlijk al eerder gebeurt: Suez heeft al jaren meer dan 50% van de aandelen van Electrabel. Maar goed, valt er iets te zeggen voor een strategie van “Vlaamse verankering”?

Het is inderdaad een feit dat Vlaamse (Belgische) ondernemingen vaak worden overgenomen door buitenlandse bedrijven en dat vooral de Fransen hier erg actief zijn. Denk aan de overname van GB door Carrefour. Zit hier een strategie achter, en maakt dit een verschil uit?

Of er een goed voorbereide strategie achter zit, weet ik niet. Ik beweeg me niet in de kringen van de Franse staatskapitalisten, en ben dat ook niet van plan. Anderen, zoals een aantal Vlaams Belangers schijnen er meer over te weten. Maar aangezien het gaat om aanwijzingen en geruchten en niet om bewijzen, laat ik deze bewering maar voor wat het is.

Het doet wel denken aan het alarm dat in het puur kapitalistische Amerika van aartskapitalist G.W. Bush werd geslagen bij de poging tot overname van Unocal door het Chinese staatsbedrijf CNOOC.

Precies dezelfde redenering werd toen gemaakt door de Amerikaanse senatoren: het kan toch niet dat een strategisch belangrijke onderneming wordt overgenomen door een staatsbedrijf van aartsrivaal China? Echter, Unocal was helemaal niet zo strategisch was als men liet uitschijnen en bovendien maakten internationaal erkende en ervaren bestuurders deel uit van de raad van toezicht van het Chinese bedrijf. Intussen willen sommige Amerikaanse Senatoren de regels aanpassen zodat het moeilijker wordt om te investeren in de Verenigde Staten.

Lang geleden nog waren wij als Vlamingen erg blij toen Amerikaanse multinationals massaal hier ten lande investeerden. Ze brachten kennis mee, nieuwe technologie, nieuwe producten, inzichten en vooral ook jobs. De overname van GB door Carrefour lijkt me evenmin een slechte zaak te zijn. Ja, Carrefour draait goed, maakt winst en die wordt naar Frankrijk versast. Maar om winst te maken moet Carrefour hoe dan ook inspelen op de behoeften van de consument. En dat doen ze blijkbaar veel beter dan GB. De grote winnaar is de gewone gebruiker – u en ik.

Het maakt niet uit of een bedrijf in buitenlandse handen is: van belang is dat ze goed geleid worden. Een tijd geleden liet GIMV-voorzitter Herman Daems optekenen dat de Vlaamse bedrijfsleiders goede bestuurders waren. Het schoentje knelt hem in gebrek aan strategisch inzicht. Misschien kan dat strategisch inzicht wel uit het buitenland komen?

Het maakt niet uit of een bedrijf in buitenlandse handen is: van belang is dat het onze wetgeving naleeft. Met Suez zijn er daaromtrent afspraken gemaakt en zoals hierboven uiteengezet krijgen we nu een unieke kans om de concurrentieverhoudingen in de energiesector verder scherp te stellen. Overigens, waar zouden de vakbonden betere relaties hebben met het management: bij het Amerikaans geleide Ford Genk, of bij onze eigen betonboer Johan Vermeersch? Al bij al waren de problemen met Ford immers terug te brengen tot het feit dat men niet wil dat het VERTREKT!

In feite is er volgens mij maar één reden om een overname te blokkeren: wanneer de markt verder gemonopoliseerd wordt en de concurrentie uitgeschakeld. Maar dan nog moet men er rekenschap van geven dat de remedie erger kan zijn dan de kwaal.

Kortom het is niet erg dat Franse bedrijven onze ondernemingen overnemen. We kunnen het misschien betreuren dat het niet omgekeerd gebeurt. Inderdaad, Electrabel had evengoed Suez kunnen overnemen, althans de energiepoot van het Franse bedrijf (Suez is ook nog actief in water en afvalverwerking).

In plaats van te klagen over buitenlandse ondernemingen die ons land wel een aantrekkelijk investeringsland vinden, zouden we ons beter afvragen hoe het komt dat Belgische ondernemingen blijkbaar noch het lef, noch de middelen hebben om zich zelf op het internationale overnamepad te begeven (een uitzondering niet te na gesproken).

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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13/11/2005
Capitalism versus socialism

Maybe there isn’t too much difference between them after all:

When a company shows signs of weakness - poor financial results or drift in the boardroom, its competitors start to pay much closer attention to it. Might they they be able to take advantage of its recent bad luck or management incompetence and seize market share from the stumbling enterprise? Perhaps some staff can be poached? Plans are hatched in boardrooms with the same degree of sentimentality a butcher with a steel cleaver has for the side of beef before him on the table.

That’s how capitalism works, but what about socialism? Surely things are completely different and comradely solidarity is the watchword?

Don’t bet the farm on it.

Everyone who reads a newspaper is aware that George Galloway is in more political, financial and legal trouble than he’s ever been in before. We know also that the extent of that trouble is slowly filtering through to his comrades and underlings in the Respect Coalition and has recently started manifesting itself as a reluctance to commit too much time or energy to a political party so closely linked to its leaders personal fortunes.

That the party leadership allowed, in an amazing act of hubris, Galloway’s name to be so intimately associated with Respect that it appeared as part of the official name of the organisation during the May General election is now looking more and more like a fundamental tactical mistake as each new accusation, legal action or investigation surfaces against Galloway.

Well what would you do if you were a competing leftwing organisation and fi-fi-fo-fum you could smell the blood of a wounded Scotsman?

the Guardian Newsblog has the answer:

Sunday will see the Socialist party - which shot to prominence in the 1980s as Militant, the Trotskyist group of socialist infiltrators into the Labour party who took control of Liverpool city council - call for a new mass party "to represent working people".

The signing of the declaration will take place, with deliberate irony (or possibly not), in Room 101 of the University of London Union

Anyone who has watched nature programmes on television and stared fascinated as packs of opportunistic hyenas start to nip the skin of wounded but still-kicking wildebeest might want to keep an eye on the respective fortunes of Respect and the newly resurrected Militant Tendency.

Oh sure, the Millies talk about ’left unity’ and ’federal structures’ but then in the business world ruthless corporate takeovers are dressed up with talk of ’synergies’ and ’new paradigms’. And we all know what happens after these words start to fly.
Still, at least capitalism did not try to change human nature and so avoided all the horrible consequences when socialism did...

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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13/11/2005
Troubles in the Middle-East

Yes. The U.S. should do more to end the Arab-Israeli conclict. But that does not give Saudi-Arabia and Syria the right to send suicide bombers into Iraq:

Nearly all of the suicide bombers who have carried out attacks in Iraq have been Arabs who crossed into the country from Syria, Iraq’s national security adviser, Mowaffaq al-Rubaie said on Sunday. Most of the suicide bombers were Saudi citizens, Rubaie added. U.S, British and Iraqi officials have demanded Syria do more to stem the flow of foreign fighters crossing its border into Iraq and close training camps on its soil. "We do not have the least doubt that nine out of 10 of the suicide bombers who carry out suicide bombing operations among Iraqi citizens ... are Arabs who have crossed the border with Syria," Rubaie told journalists in Cairo. "Most of those that blow themselves up in Iraq are Saudi nationals," he added. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has said that Syria wants a stable Iraq and does not support insurgents. He has also said he asked the U.S. for help in sealing the border but received none. Saudi Arabia last week rejected criticisms that it had not done enough to fight terrorism and said the U.S. should do more to end the Arab-Israeli conflict, which gave "lifeblood to the evil cult of hate". Rubaie said the fighters, who he said included Syrians, Lebanese, Jordanians, Egyptians, Algerians and Saudis came to Iraq through Syria, and received logistical assistance and training inside the country. "We want a political decision by the Syrian security agencies to stop the penetration of suicide bombers from Syria to Iraq ... It is very important that this decision is taken on the highest political level in Syria," he added. U.S.-led forces last week concluded Operation Steel Curtain in western Iraq near the border with Syria, their latest offensive aimed at stopping the flow of foreign fighters along the Euphrates Valley stretching from the border to Baghdad. U.S. and British officials have also accused Iran, Iraq’s eastern neighbor, of interfering in events in Iraq and not doing enough to stop militants from entering Iraq to take up arms in the insurgency. Jordanian officials said on Sunday that suicide bombers who killed more than 50 people in attacks on luxury hotels in Amman on Wednesday were all Iraqis. The Jordanians said they have a woman suicide bomber in custody whose explosives-laden belt failed to detonate. She has been identified as Iraqi and related to a former lieutenant of al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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13/11/2005
Where to invest?

At least when buying equities countries with an increasing degree of economic freedom are good places to invest. During a 30-year period the average annual return of equities is 10,1%. In countries with a decreasing degree of economic freedom the return is a negative 0,9%.

MORE.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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13/11/2005
Trade is good for the people

Look at this picture:



Kash says that this doesn’t prove anything. I agree. So I don’t want to make much out of it. But it does suggest one thing: that trade is not harmfull for the median household. In fact it will rather be positive. There is one more thing however. The graph plots the evolution of median incomes against imports, not exports. So the familiar storyline that exports are good and imports bad doesn’t at up at all. In order to export, we have to stay competitive of course. But that’s only one part of the story. The fact that imports are not harmfull suggests that trade indeed is a "positive sum-game" and that we take too much of an obsessive attitude towards exports and our degree of competitiveness.

Having said this, let’t give a round of applause for Kash of Angry Bear for this spirited defence:

4. Trade does increase productivity just as surely as technological progress does, and has exactly the same effects. An improvement in productivity means that a worker (or more generally, the economy) can produce the same amount of output using fewer resources. Better technology does that. And so does international trade. To continue with AB’s example: Just as tax software makes one accounting firm able to do many more tax returns in a given period of time, thus making each tax return cheaper, farming out tax returns to Indian accountants makes each accounting firm able to do many more tax returns in a given period of time, thus making each tax return cheaper. Trade is just another way to allow the economy to produce more using fewer resources. It is no different from technological progress.

5. Trade, and the threat of competition from foreign workers, may indeed alter the balance of power between workers and firms. And that may be a legitimate source of concern. But if one follows that line of reasoning, one must also acknowledge that trade, and the threat of competition from foreign firms, may indeed alter the balance of power between firms and consumers. Note that consumers and workers are the same people.
See here for more. For progressives to be for progress however, they should be ready to embrace "right-wing" concepts like free trade, markets and capitalism. Are they?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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12/11/2005
I’m watching

I’m eagerly waiting for it’s report on "fair trade". Meanwhile, Alex Singleton of the Globalization Institute thinks there could be something good coming out of fair trade:

One of the things I’m down in everyone’s rolodex for is as a leading critic of the Fairtrade scheme. It’s brought me a lot of good media hits - like Channel Four News and BBC Breakfast (interviewed by the superb Natasha Kaplinski). But I’ve increasingly found being a critic of Fairtrade somewhat uncomfortable. After all, if the Globalisation Institute is about anything, it’s about enterprise-based solutions to poverty. And that is, surely, what Fairtrade attempts to be. Fairtrade fits in nicely with the GI’s meme that it’s better to help developing countries by putting the money in at the bottom, rather than at the top through governments.

Let’s face it, the Fairtrade scheme - despite its provocative name - is not the opposite of free trade. It can go hand in hand with free trade - after all, it’s about consumers being free to choose to be altruistic when buying coffee. Sure, some of Fairtrade’s supporters have argued that it should become compulsory, through the World Trade Organization, but the scheme in its current form is entirely compatible with free trade. I’m worried when people like Harriet Lamb, the director of the Fairtrade Foundation, calls for the Fairtrade scheme to somehow be the model for the WTO Doha round, as though mandating prices in the world economy (i.e. Sovietising the world economy) would be good. But I think the Fairtrade Foundation has itself been moderating some of its positions, and the Foundation’s Ian Bretman tells me that he was employed as deputy director in order to bring a business perspective to the organisation.

And yet I retain deep reservations about the scheme in its current form. When you examine a scheme like microcredit, it has built-in mechanisms for helping people climb up the economic ladder - mechanisms missing in Fairtrade. The Fairtrade scheme needs to be made less bureaucratic and better at getting the most worthy farmers onboard, there needs to be work to ensure that there are incentives for mechanization and investment, and there needs to be a way of helping people to move onto bigger and better things once they reach a certain living standard. We are practical people here at the GI, so next year we will be releasing a report, Fairtrade 2.0, with a blueprint for how to reform the scheme. Watch this space.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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12/11/2005
Sharing the benefits of globalization

Owen Barder want’s the worlds poor to gain a larger share from the benefits of globalization and has some interesting proposals to do just that:

1. Ensure that further liberalisation gives priority to changes that will benefit poor countries (eg removing agricultural subsidies, removing tariff escalation, unconditionally ending all quotas and tariffs on exports of LDCs, simplifying phyto-sanitary standards) rather than those which are primarily designed to benefit rich countries.
2. Give priority to extending the logic and practice of globalisation to the market for labour, to complement liberalistion of the markets for goods and for capital. Even small increases in migration would be of huge benefit to poor countries. The asymmetry of our policy rhetoric on free trade for goods but growing anxiety about the movement of people verges on hypocrisy. We can’t expect others to accept our arguments on the benefits of globalisation if we remain adamantly opposed to those parts of it that we are uncomfortable about.
3. Massively increase investment in global public goods, such as R&D into scientific innovation that would help the poor (a green revolution in Africa, new vaccines, solar power etc), conflict prevention and reductions in environmental degradation. By definition, the costs of these public goods should be paid by the world community as a whole, and not by individual countries; and rich countries should be investing much more of their wealth on them.
4. Give more aid. We know that aid works, on average. There is remarkable consensus about how much aid is needed to meet the Millennium Development Goals, and it isn’t very much. A doubling of aid would have a huge impact on developing countries, and the cost to rich countries would be negligible within the context of public spending.
5. Increase knowledge sharing. I am concerned that the gradual extenson of copyright and patents into more and more of commercial life makes it hard for poor countries to appropriate technology from rich countries and close the gap. This has been a mechanism through the ages by which the poorest have been able to catch up with the richest: my sense is that we are making it harder than ever for this to happen. I think we have to find ways to ensure that poor countries have access to knowledge itself, and to knowledge-intensive products (eg computer software, pharmaceuticals, complex machinery) at tiered prices - the R&D costs should be paid by rich consumers, and poor countries should get access to these products at marginal cost (ie almost nothing). It harms us not in the slightest for them to do so.
I fully support 1., 2. and 5., but I have my doubts on 3. and especially 4. I also think that Owen skips too fast over the argument that poor countries themselves should do their own part aswell. Rich countries do have a crushing obligation to share the benefits of globalization but Owen seems to suggest that if we do the above things, and we alone, everything will be fine. I disagree with that. The governments of poor countries have their responsabilities too. Chris Dillow for instance suggest a sixth measure: attracking foreign direct investment. But for that the prime responsability lies with the poor countries who need to increase economic freedom. It’s the same with trade. It’s fine to open up our borders for third world products. But as long as poor countries don’t liberalize their own trade borders it’s unlikely they will make much use of the increased access into rich country markets.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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12/11/2005
Freedom of speech

Read this:

When Flemming Rose heard last month that Danish cartoonists were too afraid of Muslim militants to illustrate a new children’s biography of Islam’s Prophet Muhammad, he decided to put his nation’s famous tolerance to the test. The cultural editor of Denmark’s largest newspaper, Jyllands-Posten, then recruited cartoonists to depict Islam’s Prophet Muhammad and published them in the paper.

Since then, thousands of Danish Muslims, whose religion strictly prohibits depictions of the prophet, have demonstrated in protest, though some have rallied in support of the paper, too. Ambassadors from 11 Islamic countries including Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey (!) signed a letter demanding that the Danish prime minister "punish" the newspaper. In contrast, a young Iranian woman started a petition in favor of the move.

"Some Muslims are asking for an apology pointing to a lack of respect," (Rose) says. "They’re not asking for respect; they’re asking for subordination - for us as non-Muslims to follow Muslim taboos in the public domain."

Although Rose expected some complaints, he was unprepared for the deluge of criticism.

Among those who attacked the newspaper’s lack of sensitivity was prominent Copenhagen imam Raed Hlayhel, saying "I will not tolerate this. If this is democracy, we disagree with democracy."
Unfortunately for the imam (and for the ambassadors) this exactly is what democracy, or better still, liberty means. The right to tell people the things they don’t want to hear. And in a democracy they don’t punish newspapers for doing so. As Norman Geras writes:

(John Stuart) Mill’s prevention-of-harm principle is not without its philosophical difficulties: it requires a definition of what constitutes ’harm’. But one thing that is clear is that the notion of harm cannot be drawn so widely as to accommodate merely the giving of offence, or else you can kiss individual liberty goodbye. The things that offend different people are just too many and too various, so that including ’offence’ within ’harm’ would make the latter into a uselessly wide category. Liberal societies today need to reaffirm Mill’s principle in the most forthright terms.
One last thing. The fact that the ambassador from Turkey has signed the letter shows that it still is a long way to go to a real liberal society. A point to consider before admitting the country into the European Union.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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12/11/2005
De multiculturele economie

Ik ga een bekentenis doen. Ik ben voor de multiculturele samenleving. Kwestie is natuurlijk wat men onder een multiculturele samenleving verstaat. Ik vrees dat ik niet zo meteen een definitie kan geven. Laat ik maar volstaan dan met een aantal voorbeelden. Misschien maken deze duidelijk wat ik bedoel.

In ons land woedt nu al enige tijd een hevige discussie over de vraag of we zomaar Poolse en andere Oost-Europese arbeiders kunnen toelaten. Ik vind van wel. Waarom? Wel, in elk geval niet omdat ze tegen andere (lees: mindere) voorwaarden zouden werken dan eigen arbeiders. Dat is overigens helemaal niet nodig. Veel ondernemers vinden tegenwoordig niet de juiste persoon voor de job. Ofwel ontbreken de nodige kwalificaties, of het gaat om een gebrek aan motivatie of om een verkeerde instelling. Wanneer men echter – door werknemers uit het buitenland aan te trekken – de groep kan vergroten is de kans groter dat men wel de “right man for the job” vindt. Migranten die naar hier komen om te werken zijn vaak gemotiveerder, werken harder. Dat kan voldoende zijn voor een onderneming om de productie efficiënter te organiseren en competitiever te worden.

De voordelen van migratie spelen ook nog op andere vlakken. Elke Poolse arbeider die hier komt werken, verkrijgt een inkomen. Een groot deel daarvan wordt sowieso in België gespendeerd. Meer consumptie betekent meer verkoop en meer productie en bijgevolg ook meer jobs, ook voor Vlamingen. Werk, zoals Roger Blanpain het terecht stelt, creëert werk.

Het tweede voorbeeld betreft het project van minister van economie Fientje Moerman om Vlaamse onderzoekers in het buitenland terug te halen naar de heimat. Een uitstekend project. Maar toch gebruik ik bewust het woord "heimat" omdat ik het project nogal "nationalistisch/provincialistisch" vind en helemaal niet aangepast aan de realiteit van de globaliserende wereldeconomie. Stel dat in een bepaald onderzoeksdomein er een Vlaming in Amerika werkt die uitmuntend werk levert. Maar in India werkt een Indiër die nog beter is. Waarom dan persé veel geld gebruiken om de Vlaming terug naar hier te halen, terwijl de Indiër meer kennis en wetenschap zou kunnen overbrengen? Zou het voor de eigen economie niet beter zijn dat we de beste onderzoekers proberen naar hier te halen, ook al zijn het geen Vlamingen? We kunnen rond deze "brains" immers clusters van onderzoekers en bedrijven bouwen die hier in Vlaanderen nieuwe producten en diensten uitwerken en op de markt brengen. Maar dat betekent wel dat we onze economie moeten open stellen voor buitenlanders die hier komen werken en leven.

Het rare van de zaak is dat de meeste mensen met dit laatste eens zullen zijn. Om de één of andere manier wordt het tweede voorbeeld veel minder als een bedreiging aanzien als het eerste. Ten onrechte. Want geen van de twee zijn een bedreiging. Beiden zijn een voordeel, maar het eerste zal wellicht minder zichtbaar zijn dan het tweede. Er is uiteraard een verschil in schaalgrootte. Er zijn minder hooggeschoolde buitenlanders hier zodat deze minder storen. Ze zijn wellicht ook beter aangepast. Bovendien is hun positieve bijdrage ook groter dan deze van de Poolse arbeider. Maar vele kleintjes maken één groot. Polen die hier komen werken en consumeren dragen ook bij tot een beter werkende economie en een beter werkende economie creëert meer werk, ook voor Belgen en Vlamingen.

Hier botsen we op het verschil tussen wat de libertaire econoom Henry Hazlett het “geziene” en “ongeziene “ noemt. We zien de job die nu door de Pool wordt ingenomen, maar we zien niet de jobs die door de consumptie van dezelfde Pool gecreëerd worden.

Conclusie? De multiculturele samenleving – of beter de multiculturele economie – is niet het probleem maar de oplossing. Zoals uiteengezet aan de hand van de twee voorbeelden zijn buitenlanders – hoog- en laaggeschoold – een zegen in plaats van een bedreiging. Tijd dat we het “ongeziene” meer zichtbaar maken.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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11/11/2005
Can someone help?

Wish i could be there....

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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11/11/2005
Free market communism?

Every now and then I consider it my duty (and that of the blogosphere in general) to point to some marginal (in the sense of out of the mainstream) but nevertheless interesting idea’s. And here is one : a synthesis between the Austrian and Marxist critique of monopoly capitalism. Although the author does not use these words (preferring the term mutualist) I think his idea’s can best be described as “free market communism” (or maybe “free market marxism” is an even better term). A system where through the workings of a genuinly free market the producers/laborers get the full value of their labour. It’s only by using the instrument of the state that the capitalist can appropriate the surplus value from the worker. By eliminating the state this appropriation of the surplus value and thus exploitation of the laborer ends. At least I think this is a fair description of his idea’s, because the author, following Marx, does not offer a blueprint of the descendant of monopoly capitalism. On his website on free market anti-capitalism the author, Kevin Carson (who of course also has a blog ) has a quote from Benjamin Tucker : "The natural wage of labor is his product."

Apart from the lack of a blueprint i think it’s unfortunate that the author does not offer an answer to to Stiglitz-critique (in Wither Socialism ?) on "market socialism". Stiglitz in essence states that it doesn’t and can’t work. Neither does the author adress the possibility that with the advent of globalization and the deployment of information technology, capitalism is entering a new phase in it’s existence. By breaking down the power of both private monopolies and the modern capitalist welfare state these forces can bring us closer to a genuine free market capitalism (of which the author contends that it never existed, and probably never will).

It’s impossible to summerize the article. But i think it’s possible to convey the spirit of it by this parable from Leo Tolstoy (quoted in the article itself):

I see mankind as a herd of cattle inside a fenced enclosure. Outside the fence are green pastures and plenty for the cattle to eat, while inside the fence there is not quite grass enough for the cattle. Consequently, the cattle are tramping underfoot what little grass there is and goring each other to death in their struggle for existence. I saw the owner of the herd come to them, and when he saw their pitiful condition he was filled with compassion for them and thought of all he could do to improve their condition. So he called his friends together and asked them to assist him in cutting grass from outside the fence and throwing it over the fence to the cattle. And that they called Charity. Then, because the calves were dying off and not growing up into serviceable cattle, he arranged that they should each have a pint of milk every morning for breakfast. Because they were dying off in the cold nights, he put up beautiful well-drained and well-ventilated cowsheds for the cattle. Because they were goring each other in the struggle for existence, he put corks on the horns of the cattle, so that the wounds they gave each other might not be so serious. Then he reserved a part of the enclosure for the old bulls and cows over 70 years of age. In fact, he did everything he could think of to improve the condition of the cattle, and when I asked him why he did not do the one obvious thing, break down the fence, and let the cattle out, he answered: “ If I let the cattle out, I should no longer be able to milk them.”
The big capitalists (the owner in the fable) exploiting the workers (the cattle) so that they, and they alone, can live free in the green pastures outside the fence. To keep the workers satisfied in the fence the capitalists need and use the modern welfare state. And they need and use democracy aswell. The workers may vote once in a while, but the choice is limited between different groups within the same ruling class.

Of course it would be a good thing to tear down the fence. I’m all for free markets. But i think that Carson’s sharply negative and marxist view on the big capitalists and democracy is overdone. The twentieth century was different from all the centuries before not only because we had two world wars, one cold war, nuclear weapons and other horrors. It’s also different because in a large part of the world we found the holy grail of economic growth. In the Western world, and large parts of Asia, we probably are slouching towards utopia, to use the title of a book in progress on the economic history of the twentieth century. And it’s in large part thanks to the big capitalists and thanks to democracy that at least many in the West and more in more in Eastern-Asia are living a live in luxury. Ask any Chinese if he or she wants to work for a foreign multinational company or in the domestic sector, and the large majority of them will choose the former. (The point being of course that many of them don’t have that choice yet: it’s precisely thanks to multinational companies that they at least have the possibility to get outside of the fence.) The same goes for democracy, even if it’s only a formal one. In a democracy politicians above all wants to get elected. So they will think twice before sacrificing economic growth.

For all my sympathy for free markets, if I have to choose between free market marxism and statist welfare capitalism i’m not sure i will opt for the former one. But as i said before maybe we don’t have too. Thanks to globalization, thanks to ICT, maybe we can have free market capitalism instead.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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11/11/2005
Karel De Gucht (en The Flemish Beerdrinker) zetten Van Der Maelen op zijn plaats

Vraag van SP-A’er Dirk Van Der Maelen:

Mijnheer de voorzitter, mijnheer de minister van Buitenlandse Zaken, in 2000 hebben 191 staatsen regeringsleiders de Millenniumdoelstellingen goedgekeurd. De ganse internationale gemeenschap heeft zich tot doel gesteld om de honger en de extreme armoede met de helft te verminderen, alle kinderen recht op basisonderwijs te geven, de kindersterfte met twee derde terug te dringen en de sterfte van moeders in het kinderbed met drie vierde terug te dringen. Niet langer dan september 2005 heeft in New York de VN de stand van zaken geëvalueerd en zijn we tot de vaststelling gekomen dat we ver van deze doelstelling af blijven en dat we dreigen ze niet te halen. Er was absolute eensgezindheid onder alle staats- en regeringsleiders dat er een voorwaarde is om die doelstellingen te kunnen halen, meer bepaald dat alle landen 0,7% van hun bnp aan ontwikkelingshulp zouden besteden. Mijnheer de minister, gisteren heb ik tot mijn spijt moeten vaststellen – u hebt dat in een artikel gezegd – dat 0,7% van het bnp voor ontwikkelingshulp voor u geen fetisj mag worden. Ik betreur dit, zeker op een moment dat duizenden Vlamingen en Belgen zich klaarmaken om morgen van deur tot deur te gaan en hulp te vragen voor de realisatie van die Millenniumdoelstellingen.
Antwoord van minister Karel De Gucht:
Mijnheer de voorzitter, mijnheer Van der Maelen, hoewel mij niet duidelijk is wat de vragen zijn die mij gesteld worden maar het veeleer een vaststelling is, zal ik er toch op antwoorden. Wat staat in het artikel? De regering onderschrijft het engagement om tegen 2010 de 0,7% te halen en terzake inspanningen zal leveren. In het artikel zeg ik duidelijk dat we verdere stappen op die weg zetten, ook in de begroting 2006. Wat ik zeg en waar ik eveneens van overtuigd ben is dat 0,7% geen fetisj mag worden maar soms wel als een fetisj behandeld wordt. Het bereiken van de 0,7% betekent geenszins dat de problemen dan zijn opgelost. Er is een kwantitatief element en een kwalitatief element. Men moet zich de vraag stellen, ook u mijnheer Van der Maelen, waarom in Zuid-Amerika en Azië nogal wat resultaten bereikt worden en de Millenniumdoelstellingen grotendeels bereikt zijn of zeker in 2015 zullen bereikt worden maar dat deze doelstellingen in Afrika niet bereikt worden. Men moet zich de vraag stellen waarom dit het geval is. Dat heeft niet te maken met een percentage van 0,7 of 0,6 maar met het behoorlijk bestuur in de eerstgenoemde landen. Landen die uit een conflict komen en niet behoorlijk bestuurd worden en waar de staat niet instaat voor een aantal elementaire behoeften, is ontwikkelingssamenwerking dikwijls – of ze groot of klein is – een druppel op een hete plaat. Dat is de realiteit. Dus de eerste noodzaak waaraan men iets moet doen, met name in Afrika, is inderdaad dat daar behoorlijk bestuur komt. Trouwens, Afrika is het continent waar men het meeste geld heeft ingestopt in het verleden en waar men het minste resultaat heeft. Wel, ook daar zou men zich eens moeten afvragen hoe dat komt. Ten tweede zegt u dat er absolute unanimiteit was in New York over het halen van de 07%- doelstelling. Dat is niet moeilijk, de meesten hebben dat niet. Als men maar 0,1% geeft is het geen probleem om te zeggen dat dit 0,7% zou moeten zijn. Als men er van jaar tot jaar meer geld aan geeft, dan moet men het er effectief ook aan geven. Meer dan honderd landen die daar zaten doen veel, veel minder dan 0,7% en velen doen minder dan de helft van 0,7%. Ik krijg ook kritiek van de heer Bourgeois die zegt dat dit toch dringend geregionaliseerd zou moeten worden omdat het dan beter zou functioneren. Dat de heer Bourgeois eens in zijn rijke begroting gaat putten om dat geld op tafel te leggen voor de ontwikkelingssamenwerking. Dan zullen we veel verder raken denk ik.
Schitterend antwoord, en Karel De Gucht heeft gelijk natuurlijk. Handel, en niet ontwikkelingshulp zal de landen in Afrika doen ontwikkelen. Maar de minister van buitenlandse zaken vergeet nog één element. In een aantal gevallen is het zo dat de Millennium-doelstellingen al bijna bereikt zijn. Neem het recht op basisonderwijs dat door Dirk Van Der Maelen wordt aangehaald. Omdat in vele arme landen geen rekening wordt gehouden met onderwijs dat plaatsvindt in private, maar niet door de overheid erkende en geregistreerde scholen, wordt de scholingsgraad fors onderschat. Uit belangrijk veldonderzoek in landen als Nigeria, Lagos en India blijkt dat deze private en niet-geregistreerde scholen tot 40% van het totale aantal uitmaken. Uit hetzelfde onderzoek blijkt ook dat de meerderheid van de kinderen naar dergelijke scholen gaat (dus niet naar publieke scholen), dat ze beter worden beheerd dan scholen uit de publieke sector, dat de meerderheid van de ouders ervoor kiezen hun kinderen naar privaat onderwijs te sturen en, last but not least, dat de kwaliteit van het onderwijs er hoger is.

Dit is uiteindelijk het grote probleem dat ik heb met de dogmatische houding van Dirk Van Der Maelen. Hij denkt namelijk dat alleen nog meer hulp vanwege de overheid de armoede en ongelijkheid uit de wereld kan helpen. Maar in de praktijk blijkt het tegendeel. In het onderwijs is het juist dankzij niet door de overheid ondersteunde private scholen dat de Millennium-doelstellingen, althans op dit vlak, perfect haalbaar zijn.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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6/11/2005
Rioting against modernity

After describing a riot in Sweden, not dissimilar, but on a much smaller scale, than what’s happening right now in France, Tino over at Truck and Barter, gives his view about the riots in Paris. He does not think Islam has much to do with it, at least not directly. But it’s the same kind of mentality nevertheless:

My guess would be that the same underlying cause that leads to the popularity of Islamic extremism is causing the social problems. Tribal mentality, lack of westerns ideals of enlightenment ideals, pure nationalism are some guesses. Islam is at the least a contributing factor, but not the only one.

The economical environment plays a crucial role, interacting with misdirected social politics of “tolerance”. In the US the same immigrants respond to the economic incentives and opportunities. They get jobs, work hard and often succeed. This has two results: they automatically absorb the language and cultural rules, and they do not confuse the results of bad labor market policies with discrimination.

One question I heard Americans ask about France is why the immigrants are so ungrateful. After all, they are getting billions of euros in subsidies from the French taxpayers, and enjow a higher standard of living than in their country of origin? I have a simple theory of this. It is the same mechanism that explains why Frenchmen, Germans, South Koreans and other countries that have objectively received most help from the US are also most anti-American.

Many people do not like to feel gratitude against others. Now imagine that you know that you should be grateful to someone that you hate or dislike! If given a coherent set of beliefs that reduced the need to feel gratitude you might prefer this to the rational explanation. Frenchmen choice Chomskyite history revisionism, attributing selfishness and malice to the US role during WWII. Swedish (and French) immigrants readily accept progressive theories of society which make them victims and give them claim to entitlement. By not having any demands society reinforced bad beliefs and bad behaviour.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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6/11/2005
Google and perfect competition

Companies of course are afraid of competition, because it forces them to innovate (which is costly and demands resources), to bring quality and, above all, to lower prices. And contrary to what many people think this lowers company profits, at least in the short run. Competition means more and better products for consumers at lower prices, but does not necessarily mean higher profits for companies. No wonder that most companies try to shield themselves from competition and market forces. And if they can’t do it alone they will seek the help of governments, who mostly are happy to oblige. Western textile companies for instance want governments to shield them against Chinese producers. Music companies want governments to enforce intellecual property rights to protect their profits against free music downloads. And so on.

Now market forces themselves sometimes fail(1). Perfect competition rarely exists. For one thing, there exist information-assemetry between consumers and producers. If I want to buy a car for instance i can compare prices, because that information is (mostly) readily available. But maybe the car i’ve bought because it was cheaper has some hidden defects (of which the seller declined to inform me about). And suppose that the dearer car does not have those defects, then in the end buying the cheaper car still could turn out to be the more costly option. This is why for markers to work perfectly it’s not enough to have many consumers and producers. Information has to be readily available so that consumers are almost as much informed about the products they will buy than the sellers of those products.

But even when information is readily available this still does not mean we have informed consumers. Searching for information costs time and energy. In the jargon of economists: it entails transaction costs. Sometimes those costs are low. When bying a house or a car for instance transactions costs are not a big part of the ultimate price we have to pay. But sometimes this is not the case. A book, or a dvd, is much cheaper than a house or a car. But even here we want to buy something we like, so we have to inform ourselves about it: we not only want to know the price, but also the contents, we want to read portions of the book, or listen and watch to some parts of the dvd. Transaction costs are a big part of the price of the book or dvd.

Now this is likely to change in the future. In fact this is already changing. Peer-to-peer systems for instance lower transaction costs. And so does many new services from Google:

In retailing, Google has no interest in stocking and selling merchandise. Its potential impact is more subtle, yet still significant. Every store is a collection of goods, some items more profitable than others. But the less-profitable items may bring people into stores, where they also buy the high-margin offerings - one shelf, in effect, subsidizes another. Search engines, combined with other technologies, have the potential to drive comparison shopping down to the shelf-by-shelf level. Cellphone makers, for example, are looking at the concept of a "shopping phone" with a camera that can read product bar codes. The phone could connect to databases and search services and, aided by satellite technology, reveal that the flat-screen TV model in front of you is $200 cheaper at a store five miles away. "We see this huge power moving to the edge - to consumers - in this Google environment," said Lou Steinberg, chief technology officer of Symbol Technologies, which supplies bar-code scanners to retailers. Such services could lead to lower prices for consumers, but also relentless competition that threatens to break up existing businesses. A newspaper or a magazine can be seen as a media store - a collection of news, entertainment and advertising delivered in a package. A tool like Google News allows a reader or an advertiser to pick and choose, breaking up the package by splitting the articles from the ads. And Google’s ads, tucked to the side of its search-engine results, are often a more efficient sales generator than print ads. "Google represents a challenge to newspapers, to be sure," said Gary B. Pruitt, chief executive of the McClatchy Company, a chain of 12 newspapers including The Star Tribune in Minneapolis and The News & Observer in Raleigh, N.C. "Google is attacking the advertising base of newspapers." At the same time, Google and search technology are becoming crucial to the health of newspapers as more readers migrate to the Web. As one path to the future, Mr. Pruitt speaks of his newspapers prospering by tailoring search for local businesses, but also partnering with search engines to attract readers. Within industries, the influence of Internet search is often uneven. For example, search engines are being embraced by car companies, yet they pose a challenge to car dealers. George E. Murphy, senior vice president of global marketing for Chrysler, said Chrysler buys ads on 3,000 keywords a day on the big search sites: Google, Yahoo, Microsoft’s MSN and AOL, whose search is supplied by Google. If a person types in one of those keywords, the search results are accompanied by a sponsored link to a Chrysler site. Chrysler refines its approach based on what search words attract clicks, and studies its site traffic for clues on converting browsers to buyers. "We’ve got Ph.D.’s working on this," Mr. Murphy said. "The great thing about search is that you can do the math and follow the trail." After following a link to a Chrysler Web site, a prospective buyer can configure a model, find a dealer and get a preliminary price. Only dealers can make final price quotes. Yet with more information on the Web, the direction of things is clear, in Mr. Murphy’s view. "It will fundamentally change what the dealer does, because telling people about the vehicle won’t add value for the customer anymore," he said. "If dealers don’t change, they’ll be dinosaurs." Mr. Breyer, the Wal-Mart board member, watches Google closely in his job as managing partner of Accel Partners, a venture capital firm in Silicon Valley. These days, he advises startups to avoid a "collision course" with Google, just as he has long counseled fledgling companies to steer clear of Microsoft’s stronghold in desktop software. Internet search, like personal computing in its heyday, is a disruptive technology, he said, threatening traditional industries and opening the door to new ones. "We think there is plenty of opportunity for innovation in the Google economy," Mr. Breyer said.
With competition now becoming more perfect, and with well informed consumers, established companies are bound to use any means they have to protect themselves against it. As long as they try to do it by innovating there is no problem. But they can also do it by emulating the tactics of the textile and music companies. And that would be a problem.
(Hat Tip: Mark Thoma)

(1) What follows is not a plea for government intervention. There exist also something called government failure so that intervention does not necessarily improves the situation. And besides it’s competition itself that gives the birth to companies like Google inventing things to make market failures less severe. In any case, the worst thing that could happen is governments intervening to stall competiton (especially international competition), as it happens all to often.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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5/11/2005
Iraq and wmd

Read here this honest and comprehensive exposé by Kevin Drum on this topic. While he makes it clear that the Bush-administration lied about it, especially in 2003 and after the war, a year earlier many - including many Democrats - believed Iraq did have WMD:

in 2002, virtually everybody believed Iraq had an active WMD program. The CIA believed it (...)(t)he British believed the same thing. The Germans and French believed it. Former Clinton administration officials believed it. Lots of Democratic members of congress believed it. They were all wrong, it turned out, but they weren’t lying. The simple fact is that virtually everyone who had access to the full range of classified intelligence at that point in time thought Iraq had an active WMD program.
Well worth reading the whole thing. People say that the truth is the first casualty of war. I, on the other hand, believe that politicians will try to cover the truth up all the time, in war and peace. In time of war we just should be more vigilant about is so that it doesn’t happen, or happen less. Especially people who favoured this war should be very concerned about this. I’d rather had the Bush-administration stating from the outset that the removal of a bloodthirsty tiran and building a democracy (or rather putting the right conditions for democracy to flourish) afterwards was more important than the removal of weapons of mass destuction. Nevertheless, while in 2003 doubts increased that Iraq did had wmd, at least thanks to the war we now know for sure that they haven’t.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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5/11/2005
A great day for the internet

And again it’s Google that’s taking the lead:

GOOGLE THURSDAY LAUNCHED ITS BOOK search, Google Print, which lets users search for and access the full texts of books that have entered the public domain. The search utilizes the collections of the libraries at the University of Michigan, Stanford, Harvard, the New York Public Library, and Oxford University to index and search the public domain works. "The world’s libraries are a tremendous source of knowledge, much of which has never been available online," wrote Adam Mathes, an associate product manager with the Google Print team on the search giant’s blog. "One of our goals for Google Print is to change that, and today we’ve taken an exciting step toward meeting it: making available a number of public domain books that were never subject to copyright or whose copyright has expired." Although the search giant is touting the public domain works available for search, copyrighted works can nonetheless also be searched and read, albeit only small snippets--five pages or so at a time--by users with a Google ID. The searching of copyrighted works has been a point of contention between Google and publishers and authors. The Authors Guild and the Association of American Publishers filed separate suits alleging copyright infringement, and Google stopped scanning and indexing texts until the beginning of November. Now, however, Google has resumed scanning books, despite the legal troubles. Rivals MSN and Yahoo! have also set up their own book-scanning initiative, albeit with a softer touch toward authors and publishers. Yahoo!’s Open Content Alliance, which MSN joined last week, is scanning only public-domain works and the works of authors and publishers who opt-in to the service.
It even has forced Microsoft into the position of follower:

Microsoft is trying to adapt to the on-demand software model. Users will subscribe (or be subsidized by advertisers for low-end, low-functionality versions of the software) to online versions of Office, which would either add functionality to existing copies of Office that the users own, or might replace the desktop software altogether. For Microsoft, which has long owned the desktop-software market, this move may be seen as a preemptive strike because it has the most to lose in this arena. By going after its open source competitors, Microsoft is essentially attempting to turn a portion of its product-based business into a services- or advertising-based business. In the open source era, this kind of business model prevails because no one company has a lock on the program. Microsoft’s Windows operating system has always worked well “out of the box,” and that has helped it keep users of open source rival Linux operating system users in low numbers. But by Bill Gate’s own admission, times are changing. Startup Zimbra has already developed an impressive and full-featured substitute for Microsoft’s collaborative enterprise software. This software gives users all kinds of AJAX “mash-ups,” meaning that different AJAX applications with different features are mixed together making "Frankenstein-type" programs--only they work surprisingly well. For instance, mousing over an address in an e-mail received with Zimbra causes a small Google Maps map of the address to display next to the address. Mousing over a time or date brings up your calendar of that time. Zimbra has created a lot of buzz in the tech industry, but it doesn’t have the clout of Google. Yet for big incumbents, open source startups like Zimbra are now seen as a significant threat.
The web is brimming with competition. At least one major benifit of open source software.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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5/11/2005
The CIA Gulag

That’s what Belgian’s left wing press is calling it. A gulag. A place where millions of innocent people perished. A system set up by a totalitarian regime. What we have here are prisons where suspected terrorists are held in capture. It’s pretty bad, it’s against all kinds of standards concerning human rights, it’s a disgrace for the worlds leading democracy and it’s a enormous mistake politically. But it’s NOT a gulag.

Anyway, one still has to prove it’s existence:

Bulgaria denied the existence of secret US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) jails on its soil, local media reported on Friday. Foreign Ministry spokesman Dimitar Tsanchev was quoted as saying there exist no foreign bases on the soil of Bulgaria, including the so-called CIA jails. The clarification came as a response to a Washington Post newspaper story on Wednesday, which said that the CIA set up a covert prison network spanning eight countries as part of the US-declared war on terrorism after the Sept. 11 attacks. "The secret facility is part of a covert prison system set up by the CIA nearly four years ago that at various times has included sites in eight countries, including Thailand, Afghanistan and several democracies in Eastern Europe, as well as a small center at the Guantanamo Bay prison in Cuba," the Washington Post said, citing current and former intelligence officials and diplomats from three continents. The US administration however has declined to confirm or deny the authenticity of the story. Meanwhile, a European Commission spokesman said on Friday that the European Union (EU) would look into the report and try to find out the truth on a technical basis. The spokesman stressed that if the so-called facilities were found in Bulgaria or Romania -- EU candidates -- their accession process could be delayed, for such illegal facilities would be against standards set for EU membership. So far, Romania, Poland, Hungry, Lithuania and Thailand have also denied the presence of secret CIA prisons on their territory.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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4/11/2005
Mijn vlakke taks....

I am NoName heeft zich de jongste tijd gestort op het dossier van de "vlaktaks". Laat mij ook een duit in het zakje doen.

Zal de invoering van een vlaktaks meer economische groei tot gevolg hebben? Het heeft er alle schijn van. Volgende overwegingen spelen een rol:

- minder economische scheeftrekkingen als gevolg van het wegnemen van belastingsaftrekken en subsidies leidt tot meer economische groei;
- belastingontduiking kan gemakkelijker bestreden worden door eenvoudiger belastingssyteem en door het afschaffen van allerlei corrumperende ontwijkingsmogelijkheden;
- door verlagen en verschuiven worden "destructieve" economische activiteiten meer belast en productieve activiteiten bevorderd;
- zwartwerk wordt weer wit.

De economische adviseurs van president Bush (waaronder de alom geprezen nieuwe voorzitter van de centrale bank, Ben Bernanke) stellen het zo:

Because taxes distort economic decisions and lead to inefficient use of resources, they cause reductions in economic welfare that exceed the amount of tax collected. These costs above and beyond the revenues collected are called the “excess burden” of the tax system. Higher marginal tax rates lead to more distortion in behavior, and therefore to greater excess burden. In addition, the more responsive taxpayers are to higher marginal tax rates, the greater the excess burden will be. A recent study estimated that the excess burden associated with increasing the individual income tax by one dollar is 30 to 50 cents. In other words, the total burden of collecting $1.00 in additional income taxes is between $1.30 and $1.50, not counting compliance costs.
De economen schatten ook dat de kosten van het innen van de belastingen en de kosten voor de burgers (tijd voor invullen belastingbrief, inwinnen advies, andere kosten…) zowat één tiende bedragen van wat de belastingen opbrengen. Alleen al die kosten naar omlaag brengen betekent een belangrijke besparing voor overheid en burgers.

De hoogte van het tarief zal uiteraard afhangen van de budgettaire mogelijkheden. De voordelen van een vlaktaks spelen echter pas ten volle wanneer het een echte vlaktaks is, dus wanneer er maar één tarief is. De verschillende landen die reeds een vlaktaks hebben ingevoerd, hebben niet noodzakelijk de belastingen verlaagd. Vereenvoudiging is ook een doel op zich. Neem Litouwen dat sterk groeit: de vlaktaks bedraagt er 33%. Eenvoud ging hier boven een laag tarief. Eenvoud alleen al leidde tot meer economische groei.

Het is verder fout er vanuit te gaan dat een vlaktaks minder eerlijk is dan een progressief belastingsysteem. The Economist heeft aangetoond dat de invoering van een vlaktaks in Nieuw-Zeeland nauwelijks iets aan de inkomensverdeling zou veranderen. De oneerlijkheid van het systeem moet men in feite zoeken in de aftrekken en in de subsidies, die niet noodzakelijk in het voordeel zijn van mensen met een laag inkomen, integendeel. Overigens, ook in landen met een progressief belastingssysteem gebeurt de eigenlijke inkomensherverdeling vaak langs de uitgavenzijde en niet via de belastingen.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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4/11/2005
Staatsterrorisme

Francis Devriendt schrijft in een commentaar op de weblog van Luc Van Braekel dat het verkeerd is te denken dat door staten die het terrorisme steunen aan te pakken, zoals Bush doet, je het terrorisme kan stoppen.

Wellicht niet nee. Maar ik denk toch dat men in ieder geval niet de rol mag onderschatten die regeringen spelen ten minste in het onstaan van terreurgroeperingen. Een bloemlezing:

- de GIA, de Algerijnse moslimterroristen, is eigenlijk een hesenspinsel van de Algerijnse geheime dienst en van het leger;
- de staat Israel heeft een rol gespeeld in het ontstaan van Hamas omdat men een alternatief wou voor de PLO;
- Hezbollah zou er niet zijn zonder de steun van Iran;
- Saddam beloonde op zijn minst de Palestijnse zelfmoordenaars;
- de grote leider van de Tsjetjenen die het drama veroorzaakten in Beslan heeft de stiel geleerd bij de KGB van Putin;
- en last but not least is al-qaeda mede het product van de machinaties van de regeringen van Saudi-Arabië en Pakistan.

Hoe men het draait of keert, vele belangrijke terreurorganisaties zijn géén "bottum-up" fenomenen. Ze zijn niet ontstaat van onderuit, maar ze zouden er niet gekomen zijn zonder de cynische machtspolitiek van regeringen over de hele wereld.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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4/11/2005
Why not?

As Jonathan Dingel points out this could be a nice and workable alternative for state aid:

Recently I was musing on the fact that there were probably lots of people in rich countries who would like to lend small amounts of money to businesses in poor countries, and lots of businesses in poor countries who would like them to too. If only there was some way of connecting one to the other! Fortunately somebody was way ahead of me. They’re called Kiva, and they let people loan money in increments of $25 to businesses in Africa that need a few hundred dollars to, say, buy a truck or some new equipment. You get your money back, but without interest, so you could call it charitable lending. There’s always the chance that the business won’t work out and you don’t get anything back, in which case it’s just charity, but Kiva’s viability rests on that not happening very much. I’ve just lent 50 bucks to Lweny Gichandi Fish, so we’ll see how that goes.
I think i’m going to put some of my money where my mouth is. So should you. However, this should not let us ignore the fact that finance is one thing, making it easier to start a business another. There the resposibility of the governments of third world countries is considerable. Whatever, we, the people should help each other, without waiting for governments (or multinationals for that matter).

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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3/11/2005
Markets, the state and culture

In politics the United Nations is not the greatest friend of democracy around the world. And i’m sorry to find out that in the cultural era the same is true for one of the UN’s daughther organizations UNESCO. You see, UNESCO seems to think that the big problem for culture these days is "cultural imperialism" (of the U.S. naturally) and "homogenization" (or rather Americanisation). It’s the same as all those people who think that the U.S. is a bigger problem for world peace than Al-Qaeda, or Saddam Hussein. But at least in one of the two cases (and probably both) they are wrong. Timothy Burke explains:

The claims embedded within that idea of “cultural imperialism” are far less obviously true than most of those (including UNESCO delegates) who reference the concept think. It’s not at all clear that increasing globalization of the circulation or dissemination of popular culture produces homogeneity or for that matter, Americanization. The same mechanisms that allow American television to travel to local markets around the world facilitate the movement of popular music throughout the African diaspora, from Africa to the Americas and back again, and from the diaspora out to other national cultures. You can find something rather like hip-hop everywhere you care to look these days, but when it gets to a new place, it’s never the same. It doesn’t homogenize: it re-localizes.

What the UNESCO convention is really about is not cultural imperialism, or homogeneity. It’s about whether the state or the market is the patron and source of popular culture. Many of the backers of the UNESCO convention in the developed world are speaking from a perspective in which it is taken for granted that the nation-state has a stake in promoting a sense of national identity and language usage through underwriting cultural work, and equally taken for granted that the role of the state is to extensively support but also control the arts. The two propositions walk side by side: promote national culture while also censoring, manipulating or controlling it. At its best, this tends to float a lot of mediocre crap into the public sphere that local publics have at best tepid loyalty to, hence the desperate desire to somehow fend off or keep out cultural work from market sources (American and otherwise) that entertains or engages those audiences to a far greater degree. At its worst, it allows the extensive bureaucratic management of cultural production.

Which is of course the source of the appeal of the new convention to many developing nations: it legitimizes their autocratic impulses in the domain of global culture, it authorizes regimes of control designed to keep threatening or subversive ideas out and stifle such ideas that might emerge from local contexts.
I must say this last paragraph sounds very familiar. Don’t touch the sovereingty of Saddam’s Iraqi nation-state however horrible and authoritarian the regime. Like all those protesters against the Iraq-war legitimized (which is not the same as backing the regime, i’m not saying that!) Saddam’s regime, the UNESCO is legitimizing state control of culture.
But in the end what we need is more cultural competition, and less state control. See here for more.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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2/11/2005
Profit over people, part II

Kudos to Emma Brokers of the left-wing Guardian for this fairly critical interview with Noam Chomsky, recently voted the world’s top intellectual (by many Guardian readers aswell i can imagine). Again Chomsky comes across as a hyprocrite accusing others for putting the partyline above the truth while he of course does the same when it concerns his partyline:

In the ensuing outcry, Chomsky lent his name to a letter praising Johnstone’s "outstanding work". Does he regret signing it?

"No," he says indignantly. "It is outstanding. My only regret is that I didn’t do it strongly enough. It may be wrong; but it is very careful and outstanding work."

How, I wonder, can journalism be wrong and still outstanding?
And then there is this:
You could pick any number of other conflicts over which to have a barney with Chomsky. Seeing as we have entered the bad-tempered part of the interview, I figure we may as well continue and ask if he finds it ironic that, given his views on the capitalist system, he is a beneficiary of it. "Well, what capitalist system? Do you use a computer? Do you use the internet? Do you take an aeroplane? That comes from the state sector of the economy. I’m certainly a beneficiary of this state-based, quasi-market system; does that mean that I shouldn’t try to make it a better society?" OK, let’s look at the non-state based, quasi-market system. Does he have a share portfolio? He looks cross. "You’d have to ask my wife about that. I’m sure she does. I don’t see any reason why she shouldn’t. Would it help people if I went to Montana and lived on a mountain? It’s only rich, privileged westerners - who are well educated and therefore deeply irrational - in whose minds this idea could ever arise. When I visit peasants in southern Colombia, they don’t ask me these questions." I suggest that people don’t like being told off about their lives by someone they consider a hypocrite. "There’s no element of hypocrisy." He suddenly smiles at me, benign again, and we end it there.
But hold on. Why end it there? Chomsky does have a portfolio himself, not just his wife. And isn’t Chomsky the world’s top critic of those corporations that have captured the American government so that they can exploit the peasants in southern Colombia? Then i think that those peasants are entitled to know that their foremost defender has shares in those same corporations. They should ask those questions: Chomsky is profiting from their exploitation.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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2/11/2005
A reason to tax capital?

Brad DeLong suggests a reason to tax capital, aswell as a reason not to:

Taxing capital income does two things: (i) it taxes thrift--moving wealth and purchasing power forward in time--and thus causes us collectively to miss opportunities for productive investment; and (ii) it taxes luck--those who happened to be in the right place at the right time, and wound up with large piles of money. Looking forward in time at my great-great-great grandchildren, I don’t want their thrift taxed: I do want them to take advantage of all the opportunities for productive investment there are. But I do want their luck taxed: some of them will be lucky and some will not, and I will be happier if some of the fruits of the good luck of the some are redistributed to the others via the tax system.
If we miss opportunities for productive investment we miss opportunities for creating jobs. So ultimately a tax on capital, has the same effect as a tax on labour: the destruction of jobs. Are we sure we want the destruction of jobs and the "unluck" of some in order to tax the luck of others? Maybe better to shrink government so that we can lower taxes on labour ŕnd capital in order to create jobs (and more lucky ones)?

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2/11/2005
The clash of religions?

A few months ago we were pleased to hear that support for Osama and for suicide terrorism was on the wane in the muslim world. Still, when looking a little bit harder to the same survey, it’s unclear if there is much reason to rejoice. Look here a this table:



What struck me first is that many people in the West do have a favourable view of Islam. In the U.S. only 22% has an unfavourable view. Of course the U.S. is a deeply religious country so one can expect that Americans have a favourable view of religion in general. Still, it’s the first country to come under attack by the islamofascists so the result remains a little surprising. And in more secular countries, like Britain, there is even less animosity against islam. The only European country where a majority has an unfavourable view is the Netherlands.

Constrast this with the views muslims have of other religions. In every country polled overwhelming majorities of muslims have an unfavourable view of jews. In Jordan it’s just everyone: 100% (what is the margin of error here?). And in many countries the majority of those polled have an unfavourable view of Christians. In fact those majorities are surprisingly large in more "western" countries like Turkey (do we still want to admit them in the EU?) and Morocco. Christians seems to be liked more in Indonesia, Jordan, and, especially, in Lebanon. So not in every religious country have people a favourable view of all religions: this seems to be only so in the United States.

Of course this is only the muslim attitude towards other religions. It does say nothing about their view of so-called "western values". Nevertheless, in West against Middle-East, muslims do seem to have more problems with the West than the other way around.

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31/10/2005
Profit over people

For those interested here is the Volcker-report into the oil-for-food scandal. The usual suspects are there: people like George Galloway and Charles Pasqua, lot’s of oil companies and ...communist parties all over the world, aswell as the Palestinian Liberation Front, profiting handily on the backs of the Iraqi people. Thank God that the war ended all of this.

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31/10/2005
De limieten van het anti-anti-Amerikanisme

Ronald Plasterk wordt terecht kwaad als men hem beschuldigt van anti-Amerikanisme:

Ik was tegen de oorlog in Irak, maar als mensen dan zeggen dat je anti-Amerikaans bent kan ik altijd boos worden. Amerika is een fantastisch land! Het land waar we als jongeren al naar opkeken. Het land van Dylan en andere helden. Ik was de hele afgelopen week in Amerika, heb er veel vrienden, die trouwens allemaal tegen Bush en tegen die oorlog zijn, en ik laat me door niemand zeggen dat ik anti-Amerikaans ben.
Plasterk heeft gelijk, niet over de oorlog in Irak, maar over het anti-anti-Amerikanisme. Amerika is een groot land waar veel mogelijk is en waar tegelijk veel ook wordt onderdrukt (denk aan het blote borst incident met Janet Jackson). Amerikanen zijn tegelijk heel werelds en ontzettend provincialistisch. Bovenal is het een land waar je het niet eens moet zijn, of zou moeten zijn, met het beleid van de regering. Precies in Amerika zou kritiek op de regering en dus op de oorlog in Irak mogelijk moeten zijn zonder dat dit als kritiek op het land of zijn bevolking zelf moet worden beschouwd. Diegenen die dit onderscheid niet kunnen maken zijn niet beter dan diegenen die er per definitie vanuit gaan dat (neo)conservatisme slecht is.

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31/10/2005
Growth is good for morals

Now that i’m in a moral state of mind today here is Michael Mandel’s review of this book:

The real benefit of growth, Friedman argues, is that it encourages a wide range of social virtues, including dedication to democracy, tolerance of diversity, social mobility, and commitment to fairness. By contrast, he writes, "when living standards stagnate or decline, most societies make little if any progress toward any of these goals, and in all too many instances they plainly retrogress."

But in this book Friedman has scored a dead-center hit on the critical question: Why do we value economic growth? The usual argument is that a bigger GDP -- more goods and services -- leads to happier, more satisfied citizens. But that apparently simple proposition turns out to be far more complicated. As Friedman notes, there is plenty of evidence that people judge their well-being by comparing themselves to others. As the average income in a country goes up, so do expectations. As a result, the level of GDP per person in a country, taken alone, doesn’t necessarily say much about the level of happiness.

The lack of a direct link between personal satisfaction and the level of GDP per person seems to undercut the purely economic arguments in favor of growth. After all, why should we undergo all the turmoil of technological change and economic restructuring if more gadgets and bigger homes aren’t going to make us happier in the end?

Friedman argues that economic growth has a key additional benefit: As long as people see their own income rising, they worry less about doing better than others. And that in turn creates a more favorable environment for political and social advances. To demonstrate this point, he draws on economic studies and historical examples, both American and global. In the 1700s, he points out, it became accepted that the rise of commercial and trading activity was a force for positive legal and institutional change. Adam Smith, for one, believed that moral progress went hand in hand with economic progress, as voluntary exchange replaced the use of force.

Friedman points to the the Ku Klux Klan in the U.S. and the Nazis in Germany as examples of what can happen when growth vanishes. And he worries that "rising intolerance and incivility and the eroding generosity and openness...have been, in significant part, a consequence of the stagnation of American middle class living standards during much of the last quarter of the twentieth century."

Friedman is forthright about admitting that the New Deal doesn’t fit his argument. He says the hard times of the Great Depression brought forth a virtue: a generous public response. But the New Deal was "exceptional," says Friedman, arguing that rising incomes in general make people more willing to help others.

The link between economic growth and democracy also works on a global level. The movement toward civil liberties and open societies, says Friedman, has been most successful in countries with rising incomes: He predicts China will take this same path.

This is not a politically biased book -- you would have a hard time telling from it whether Friedman is a Republican or a Democrat. But it does provide a new framework and language for discussing economic growth, one that’s useful for economists, politicians, and business leaders alike. The goal is not simply more, but more moral.


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31/10/2005
Welcome in the EU

EU-Serf points to the declaration at the end of the European left congres:

The Athens Declaration underlined that the European Union is in crisis because of the neoliberal choices that "are made in Brussels and which are also the policies of national governments." It appeals for a "convergence of movements and leftist political forces fighting to reverse these priorities and the policies adopted up to this time." It also pledges to fight against unemployment, social exclusion and job insecurity and calls for an immediate reassessment of the EU budget and fiscal policies, stressing that the ECB should be at the service of employment and growth that targets the less development EU nations.
Of course those less developed nations are imploring Europe to make some neoliberal choices - a liberalized internal market in services for instance - so that they can create growth and employment. But that’s precisely what the European left is trying to prevent. So maybe it would be fair to stop talking in the name of the less developed nations, because they simply aren’t. EU-Serf in the meantime fails to see any neoliberalism in the current union:

I live in a horrible world or protectionism, high taxes, useless regulation, CAP and rampant statism.
Welcome in the European Union.

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31/10/2005
Huh?

Ik vermoed dat ze dit "spin" noemen. Het VRT-nieuws vanavond meldt dat Bush nu al een derde kandidaat voorstelt om Sandra O’Connor op te volgen voor het Hooggerechtshof. De boodschap is duidelijk: Bush is een knoeier.

Maar later in de reportage komt "en stoemelings" de aap uit de mouw: de eerste kandidaat, John Roberts, moest de intussen overleden William H. Rehnquist gaan opvolgen. Zonder dat overlijden was er niets aan de hand geweest, getuige het feit dat Roberts’ benoeming zonder problemen door de Senaat werd goedgekeurd. De uitslag: 78 voor, 22 tegen: en beter resultaat dan algemeen werd verwacht. Overigens maakte Roberts bij de hoorzittingen voor een speciale Senaatscommissie een goede indruk.

Door deze daad van God zag Bush zich dus wel genoodzaakt een andere kandidaat te zoeken om O’Connor op te volgen. Maar daar kan de president niet veel aan doen me dunkt, of denkt de VRT dat Bush in persoonlijke verbinding staat met God zodat hij de dood van Rehnquist had kunnen verhinderen? Hoe dan ook is er nu een nieuwe kandidaat, en uiteraard, gaat het om een ultraconservatief. Inderdaad, Sam Alito is niet zomaar tegen abortus. Neen, hij vindt, volgens de VRT, dat de vrouw eerst de toestemming moet vragen aan de man. Stel je voor: een ultraconservatief die eigenlijk voor abortus is, zo lang het maar gebeurt in consensus. (In feite gaat het over "informeren" van de man, niet om toestemming vragen). Wat is er volgens de VRT nog zo ultraconservatief aan Alito? Wel, hij wil vreemdelingen het land uit kunnen wijzen. Mmmmmmm. Volgens deze standaard zijn er veel ultraconservatieve politici, ook in Europa overigens. Men had echter ook op deze zaak kunnen wijzen:

a little-known Social Security case in 2002 which may be instructive when it comes to comparing Alito to Scalia. In that case, Alito argued passionately with other members of the 3rd Circuit Appeals Court that a disabled woman, Pauline Thomas, should be granted benefits because she had been laid off from her job as an elevator operator and could not find a new job since the position of "elevator operator" had virtually disappeared from the economy. A lower court had ruled that a narrow and technical reading of the Social Security statute did not entitle Thomas to benefits. Alito called this result "absurd" and overrode the objections of several of his colleagues and convinced the full 3rd Circuit to overturn the lower court decision.
Mij komt Alito over als iemand die oprecht opkomt (maar niet te fel) voor zijn ideeën die inderdaad over het algemeen ter rechterzijde te situeren vallen. En ook als iemand die ervaring heeft, de grondwet wil doen respecteren, en niet vastgeroest zit in zijn overtuigingen. Om zo iemand dan als "ultraconservatief" af te schilderen. Tja.

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31/10/2005
A just war is better than an unjust peace

There is a new book out arguing the case for war in Iraq from a moral perspective. Mandatory reading i suppose for people, like myself, who supported the war, not because of weapons of mass destruction or a possible link between Saddam and terrorism, but because it was morally the right thing to do. If only the intervention came much too late: there surely was no need for more then a decade of crushing sanctions, crushing that is for the Iraqi people, while Saddam himself and his friends in Iraq and in the West were making money of it. To the eternal shame of Bill Clinton and Bush the Elder they let the Iraqi people rot in hell. (Remember Madelaine Albright saying that the thousands of dying Iraqi children because of the sanctions was a price worth paying?) To it’s credit Bush the Younger put an end to it. The fact that he made a mess of it afterwards does not in my view diminish the moral argument. And because Bush is a "reactionary president", to use the words of one of the authors, does not make the war wrong. No regime change would have been much much worse. So i think this is timely book:

Now comes a book that brings together 24 journalists, scholars, writers, and politicians on the left. Collected under the editorship of Wellesley College sociologist Thomas Cushman, the book offers what he calls the "voices of a Third Force of liberal internationalism." They reject a status quo that allows tyrannies free rein, while grounding their support for intervention in human rights -- in idealism, not realism. The book provides intellectual ammunition for those on the left who still believe that toppling Saddam Hussein -- and staying the course for the democratization of Iraq despite the absence of weapons of mass destruction -- was and is the right thing to do. It will buttress embattled war supporters on the left who find themselves isolated and outshouted by the anti-warriors.

While criticizing the Bush administration’s poor handling of the post-war occupation, the writers nonetheless take on the issues that most often separate the anti-war left from the interventionist center. These include abandoning liberals’ historic solidarity with the oppressed; the left’s drift to a position of conservative realism on international affairs; the question of a just war versus an unjust peace; and the famously absent weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

Quite apart from the WMD issue, most of these writers argue from a liberal- humanitarian point of view that a tyranny as homicidal as Saddam’s -- with 300,000 murdered over 30 years -- should not be tolerated by the international community. Leaving Saddam in place in the name of preserving peace over war, writes Dissent magazine editor Mitchell Cohen, is to endorse an "unjust peace" -- the precise flip side of a just war -- that would only have led, in any case, to war at a later date. Likewise, Danish journalist Anders Jerichow notes that "the so-called peace in Iraq ... has rested on the toleration of a brutal dictatorship and bloody suppression ... peace, that is, for governments but certainly not for people."

British journalist and playwright Johann Hari devotes his entire essay to examining public opinion in Iraq in the months before and right after the invasion. The verdict was clear: Iraqis, while deathly afraid of war, nonetheless overwhelmingly wanted the invasion to proceed. "It is now beyond dispute that, on the day of the huge anti-war rallies around the world in February 2003, a majority of the Iraqis would have been marching in precisely the opposite direction if they had been free to do so." Hari was struck by "how marginal actual Iraqi people seemed to many people participating in the anti-war protests."

Throughout the book, the essayists decry the conformist rejectionism of their liberal friends, caught up as they are in what Cushman calls "the current tide of intellectual orthodoxy on the left in relation to the Iraq war." He adds: "What has been so striking from a sociological point of view is the resistance to even hearing the humanitarian case for the war." At least one of the writers, Dutch professor Mient Jan Faber, lost his post with the Interchurch Peace Council of the Netherlands because of his views.

Apropos the novelist Julian Barnes’s comment that the war wasn’t worth the loss of a single life, Norman Geras, a British political theorist, mordantly observes, "Not one, eh? So much for the victims of the rape rooms and the industrial shredders." But of course to admit otherwise would be to credit the Americans, and even the Bush administration, with moral insight and the capacity for good. How much more satisfying to revel in the administration’s richly deserved comeuppance!

Do we truly know what is required in order to defend democratic principles in the face of attack from those who consider themselves divinely inspired? (I am referring, of course, to Islamic fundamentalists, not the Bush administration.) "A Matter of Principle" includes a backbone-stiffening contribution from Adam Michnik, a political philosopher, a founder of Solidarity in Poland and an authentic hero of the democratic left. Asked whether it isn’t "paradoxical" to advocate violence as a means to advance human rights, Michnik snaps, "I can’t remember any text of mine where I said one should fight Hitler without violence; I’m not an idiot. . . . In the state of Saddam, the opposition could find a place only in cemeteries."


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30/10/2005
Bush in de problemen

Hoe men het draait of keert, het zijn moeilijke tijden voor de Amerikaanse president Bush. Buiten de geslaagde benoeming van Ben Bernanke aan het hoofd van de Fed, de centrale bank, een benoeming die op veel lof kon rekenen, zit het Bush de jongste weken en maanden inderdaad niet mee.

Zelfs de goedkeuring van Iraakse grondwet kan problemen in Irak niet verbloemen. Niet dat, maar wel het feit dat er nu 2.000 Amerikanen zijn gesneuveld haalt de voorpagina’s van het nieuws, ook in de V.S. zelf en ook in de niet-linkse pers. En niet de grondwet maar wel de dode militairen is wat Bush door de Amerikaanse bevolking wordt aangerekend.

De voorbije dagen zagen we ook de intrekking van de kandidatuur van Harriet Miers voor het hooggerechtshof omdat ze niet conservatief genoeg was, er was de hevige kritiek vanwege oudgedienden uit de regering van de vader van de huidige president, zoals Brent Scowcroft (een vriend van Cheney!), en last but not least het ontslag van I.Lewis Libby, de stafchef van de vice-president, nadat deze in beschuldiging werd gesteld in de affaire Plame. In diezelfde zaak lijkt het zwaard van Damocles ook nog steeds te zweven boven het hoofd van Karl Rove, de "onmisbare" adviseur van de president.

Intussen lijkt Bush ook zijn greep op de evenementen in het buitenland kwijt te zijn. Er is niet alleen Irak, maar vooral ook Iran, waar de president te kennen heeft gegeven Israel van de aardbol te willen laten verdwijnen. De V.S. heeft om sancties gevraagd (ook omwille van Iran’s zoektocht voor nucleaire wapens) aan de VN, maar het is ten eerste onduidelijk of ze die wel zal krijgen, en ten tweede, niet zeker dat als ze er komen ze veel aarde aan de dijk zullen zetten. De slachtoffers van dergelijke sancties zullen in de eerste plaats diegenen zijn die momenteel nog de meeste pro-Amerikaanse houding aannemen: het Iraanse volk namelijk. En als de V.S. alleen sancties neemt, zal de woede zich uiteraard ook alleen op de V.S. richten. Sancties werken contraproductief, de ervaring in Irak zou hier een belangrijke les moeten zijn.

Voor een militaire oplossing staat de Bush-regering dan weer politiek én militair te zwak. Wat kan ze dan wel doen? Democratische krachten in Iran steunen, maar dat kost veel tijd en dat is nu net niet wat Bush heeft. Als over een jaar de Republikeinen de verkiezingen voor het parlement zouden verliezen, dan zouden ze wel eens massaal tegen hun eigen president kunnen keren. Niet vergeten dat ook de parlementaire steunpilaren van Bush in het Congres (DeLay) en de Senaat (Frist) onder vuur liggen. Tom DeLay is al moeten opstappen.

Sommigen dromen al hardop van een herhaling van het Nixon-scenario. Nixon moest opstappen na de Watergate-affaire nadat de vice-president Spiro Agnew eerder al had ontslag had genomen wegens een zaak van corruptie. Daardoor werd Ford president. Zo wordt nu ook al hardop gespeculeerd over een mogelijk opstappen van Dick Cheney die dan vervangen zou kunnen worden door iemand als Condoleezza Rice. Zij zou dan eventueel Bush kunnen opvolgen als die zou worden afgezet.

Onwaarschijnlijk? Wellicht wel. Maar dat zulke scenario’s de ronde doen wijst er nogmaals op dat Bush in de hoek zit waar de slagen vallen. Zo kan ook de benoeming van Bernanke uitgelegd worden als een daad van angst: het wordt algemeen aangenomen dat Bernanke niet de uitverkoren kandidaat was, maar dat Bush, gegeven de omstandigheden, niet anders durfde. Het mogelijke vertrek van Rove ten slotte, die toch als een politiek genie wordt beschouwd, zal de positie van Bush nog verder verzwakken. We zitten dan ook in elk geval met een administratie in moeilijkheden. Benieuwd of Bush het tij nog kan keren.

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28/10/2005
Nieuwsmedia de mist in....

Peter Fleming wijst erop dat zelfs de benoeming van Ben Bernanke als het nieuwe hoofd van de Amerikaanse Centrale Bank bij Tijd-journalist Jean Van Empten de stoppen doet doorslaan. Van Empten beschouwt de band tusse Bernanke en Bush als een handicap. Heeft Vanempten dan geen enkele econoom - van links tot rechts - gelezen die de keuze van Bush uitstekend vinden? Nochtans vinden ze dat (bijna) allemaal. Zelfs Paul Krugman, de grote criticus van George Bush, heeft (bijna) niets anders dan woorden van lof:

It’s even hard to imagine him doing what Mr. Greenspan did: throwing his prestige... behind... tax cuts.... Has President Bush been so damaged by scandals and public disapproval that he has no choice but to appoint qualified, principled people to important positions? O.K., seriously, many economists and investors feared that Mr. Bush would try to place a highly partisan figure in charge of the Fed. And ... there was widespread concern that Mr. Bush would try to select a John Snow type - a businessman whose only qualification is loyalty....
Het feit dat Bush de vrijdenker Bernanke heeft benoemd en geen partijvazal zou bij iedereen goedkeuring moeten oproepen, dat gebeurt (bijna) zelfs bij Krugman, maar niet bij Van Empten...

En dan was er Ter Zake woensdag, waar Rudi Vrancks als Iran-kenner werd geprofileerd. De aanleiding waren de uitspraken van de Iraanse president over Israël, en met name de vernietiging ervan. Bijna liet Vrancks uitschijnen dat het Iraanse volk het zo gewild heeft. Zij hebben de conservatieven immers terug aan de macht gebracht. Geen woord echter over het feit dat die verkiezingen van begin tot einde waren gemanipuleerd. Geen woord over het feit dat de Iraniërs zelf veel minder anti-Israel zijn dan de leiders. Jeff Weintraub:

The Iranian population, on the other hand, is by all accounts much less hostile to Israel than any other in the Middle East. This has never had much effect on the hard-liners who control the unelective part of the government--the part with all the actual power. Since Ahmadinejad became President of Iran earlier this year, in a rather crudely manipulated election, the two parts of the Iranian government now speak with one voice.


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27/10/2005
Progressives can be ugly too

Alex Tabarrok reports on the secret history of the minimum wage:

It’s no surprise that progressives at the turn of the twentieth century supported minimum wages and restrictions on working hours and conditions. Isn’t this what it means to be a progressive? Indeed, but what is more surprising is why the progressives advocated these laws. A first clue is that many advocated labor legislation "for women and for women only."

Progressives, including Richard Ely, Louis Brandeis, Felix Frankfurter, the Webbs in England etc., were interested not in protecting women but in protecting men and the race. Their goal was to get women back into the home, where they belonged, instead of abandoning their eugenic duties and competing with men for work.

Unlike today’s progressives, the originals understood that minimum wages for women would put women out of work - that was the point and the more unemployment of women the better!
The dictum that progressives are good, and conservatives are bad, is not true. It isn’t true now, it wasn’t true then. It’s not because fair trade is a so-called progressive cause (it’s actually a very conservative one - people are not allowed to search for another higher paying occupation, it’s either starving or being at the merci of the rich Western consumer, but by all means don’t try to improve yourself), that it is a good one.

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25/10/2005
A good choice

From left to right, Ben Bernanke is considered to be a very good choice for the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Well done, George.

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25/10/2005
Already broken up

Sometimes things that are already been broken should not be fixed. An informed commenter writes a letter to Juan Cole:

Dear Professor Cole:

. . . You quoted today the Brattleboro Reformer’s account of my remarks last night to the Windham World Affairs Council. You noted a transcription error in my description of the sorry state of Iraqi military and said you would seek clarification. I am happy to provide it.

I described the Iraqi Army as consisting of nine Kurdish battalions, sixty Shiite battalions, and 45 Sunni Arab battalions. There is exactly one mixed battalion. The Kurdish battalions have no Arab officers, while there are a few Kurdish and Sunni Arab officers with Shiite battalions. Being a Kurdish or Shiite officer of the Sunni Arab battalions is risky, so there are not many at all. This is hardly the picture of a national institution. I also noted that up to half the nominal troop strength consists of ghost soldiers. As there is no direct deposit in Iraq, the battalion command can pocket the salaries of soldiers that don’t exist, so there is an incentive to maintain full strength on paper. More of this can be found in my October 6 article in the New York Review of Books, “Iraq’s Last Chance”, which also analyzes the new Constitution.

You also describe me as advocating the break up of Iraq. My position is slightly different. I argue that Iraq has already broken up, and that it will be much more costly—in terms of lives and money—to put it back together than to accept the new reality. One reason I like the new Constitution is that I believe it is realistic.

You argue that partition could lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths, but you ignore the fact that holding Iraq together has already cost well more than 100,000 lives in the various Kurdistan wars.

I also think you draw the wrong lessons from the break-up of Yugoslavia, about which I have a certain experience.* The US and Europeans focused on trying to hold Yugoslavia together when there was no way to do so. Instead, US and European diplomacy should have focused on the issues that caused the war. The war was preventable; the break up was not.

I do not believe it is possible to keep people in a state they hate, and the Kurds clearly want out of Iraq. I do not think the break up of the rest of Iraq is inevitable, but it is possible.

Saddam murdered over 100,000 Kurds, used poison gas, and destroyed more than 4000 villages in Kurdistan as part of his effort to keep Iraq united. Mismanaged divorce can be costly, but so is an unwanted marriage. The human cost of holding Iraq together may be much higher than that of a negotiated separation.

All the best.

Peter Galbraith ’


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21/10/2005
Reasons to be cheerfull

In the era of globalization not only we see less poverty and more democracy. The world is also becoming a safer place:

Confounding conventional wisdom, a major new report reveals that all forms of political violence, except international terrorism, have declined worldwide since the early 1990s. Supported by five governments, published by Oxford University Press and released today, the Human Security Report is the most comprehensive annual survey of trends in warfare, genocide, and human rights abuses. The Report, which was produced by the Human Security Centre at the University of British Columbia, shows how, after nearly five decades of inexorable increase, the number of genocides and violent conflicts dropped rapidly in the wake of the Cold War. It also reveals that wars are not only far less frequent today, but are also far less deadly.
Of course, there is one war we still have to win...

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21/10/2005
Soft and hard standards

Hard standards for the ruled, soft standards for the rulers. Chris Dillow reports:

1. David Cameron (probably the new leader of the Conservatives, IJ) thinks it a private matter whether he took cocaine before becoming an MP. But he does not, apparently, think charlie should be legalized.
2. The policemen who shot Harry Stanley (crime - possession of chair leg) will not be prosecuted. In the last 12 years, 30 people have been shot dead by the police. There have been no convinctions for manslaughter or murder.
3. The government is threatening benefit claimants with the slogan: "If you’re not completely honest, we’ll find out." This is the government that gave us Byers, Blunkett, Campbell and Mandelson.
And in Belgium driving a car is almost considered a crime, or bying cheap products from abroad. Beware for politicians who tell you how to behave...

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21/10/2005
Intelligent quote of the day

From Simon World:

Thought for the week: If the intelligent design crowd are right, why are we so badly designed? They could have at least included a cup-holder.
But as David comments, they did: it is called a hand.

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21/10/2005
The worlds greatest

The world’s greatest intellectual is a capitalist, but don’t tell it further:

Chomsky, for all of his moral dudgeon against American corporations, finds that they make a pretty good investment. When he made investment decisions for his retirement plan at MIT, he chose not to go with a money market fund, or even a government bond fund. Instead, he threw the money into blue chips and invested in the TIAA-CREF stock fund. A look at the stock fund portfolio quickly reveals that it invests in all sorts of businesses that Chomsky says he finds abhorrent: oil companies, military contractors, pharmaceuticals, you name it. When I asked Chomsky about his investment portfolio he reverted to a "what else can I do" defense: "Should I live in a cabin in Montana?" he asked. It was a clever rhetorical dodge. Chomsky was declaring that there is simply no way to avoid getting involved in the stock market short of complete withdrawal from the capitalist system. He certainly knows better. There are many alternative funds these days that allow you to invest your money in "green" or "socially responsible" enterprises. They just don’t yield the maximum available return.
Read the whole thing.

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21/10/2005
In defense of Google Print

A writer sends a letter to Google:

Dear Google,

Your search engine is the primary way that people find their way to my website, and subsequently, my book.

I asked my publisher, Simon and Schuster, for my book to be included in Google Print. I was told they did not do that.

Lack of exposure is the primary reason that a book like mine would fail in the marketplace. I spend most of my day trying to get attention for my book. Not for the money, but because I believe that it is well written and funny. Very few authors will become rich writing books. We do it because we have something to say. If we wanted to be rich, we’d have invented a search engine!

Please let me know if there is anything I can do to help. After all, it’s perfectly free to check out a book from the library. I have no problem with my book being indexed by your site. In fact, I wish it was!

Someone asked me recently, "Meghann, how can you say you don’t mind people reading parts of your book for free? What if someone xeroxed your book and was handing it out for free on street corners?"

I replied, "Well, it seems to be working for Jesus."

All my best,

Meghann Marco author, ’Field Guide to the Apocalypse’
Simon and Schuster is one of the publishers suing Google Print for providing an invaluable service for authors and consumers alike. And for doing that, inventors of search engines are entitled to become rich. Don’t let the modern luddites prevent it by wielding the power of the justice system.
(Via Boing Boing)

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18/10/2005
Nieuwe minister van begroting kent vierkantswortel van 25 niet

Ik heb het zelf niet gehoord, maar naar het schijnt moest onze nieuwe minister van begroting het antwoord schuldig blijven op volgende vraag:

"Wat is de vierkantswortel van 25?"

Maandagochtend op Donna. Words fail me.

UPDATE

Niets in de pers over dit "incident". Zelfs Het Laatste Nieuws, dat toch zo graag allerlei faits divers bericht over ons aller Freya, behoudt het stilzwijgen. Misschien iets te beschamend deze keer?

VRT en Het Volk berichten wel over een "ontmoeting" tussen Leen Demaré en Freya. Maar de vrijgevigheid van de nieuwe minister is blijkbaar belangrijker dan haar onwetendheid inzake de basisbeginselen van het rekenen. Overigens gaat het hier overduidelijk om opgezet spel (wat die vrijgevigheid betreft). FVDB wist al maanden dat ze minister van begroting ging worden en dus dat ze die weddenschap zou verliezen.

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16/10/2005
Book recommendation

It seems that it’s not really a good book, but the story it tells is great and fascinating:

The politically correct view is that critics of capitalism were good guys. This is why early critics of capitalism like historian/biographer Thomas Carlyle and novelist Charles Dickens are treated in textbooks as enlightened thinkers. George Mason University intellectual historian Levy reveals, however, how Carlyle defended slavery. Carlyle offered racial explanations for many problems, such as the persistence of poverty in Ireland (the Irish were like that). Carlyle thought that since blacks weren’t human, they could be legitimately exterminated. Levy notes that Carlyle’s vicious writings brought tears to the eyes of Hitler. Levy doesn’t spare Charles Dickens, who admired Carlyle (Hard Times was inscribed to Carlyle), and implicitly embraced Carlyle’s views about blacks and slavery. Levy goes on to talk about Karl Marx’s racism and how Friedrich Engels thought blacks were incapable of learning mathematics. Levy delights in pointing out that champions of capitalism opposed slavery. He discusses Adam Smith, Thomas Babington Macaulay, John Stuart Mill and others. It was because of their ardent antislavery views that Carlyle denounced classical economics as the "dismal science." Levy’s solid scholarship illuminates the overlooked links between capitalism and emancipation.
A nice reason to join the club of the pro-capitalists no? And speaking about pro-capitalists.

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15/10/2005
British imperialism

Robert Fogel observes:

The practice of poor countries selling their exports to rich countries got a bad name during the interwar period and was widely viewed as exploitation of these countries by imperial powers. The later view, looking at the Canadian and American experiences, was quite the contrary (North, 1966; and Kravis, 1970). Selling raw materials and other labor-intensive products to the rest of the world is a way to get developed countries to provide capital to the less developed countries and foster entrepreneurship. Thus, at the outbreak of World War I, foreign capital owned one-third of the bonds of American railroads (Ripley, 1915). One of the great discoveries of economic historians during the 1960s, which was confirmed in the 1980s and 1990s, was that the Hobsen-Hilferding-Lenin thesis that English coupon-clippers got rich from investments in poor countries such as India, and then withdrew large sums of annual earnings, was wrong. After the computer revolution it was possible to put the whole late-nineteenth-century portfolio of British overseas investments into machine-readable form (Simon, 1970; Davis and Huttenback, 1986; and Stone, 1999). It turned out that there was a strong correlation between a country’s per capita income and the share of the British overseas portfolio invested in it. The United States received the largest share, followed by Canada and Argentina (which at the turn of the twentieth century had one of the highest per capita incomes in the world). Of course, that discovery did not stop diehard critics of Western imperialism, who then denounced Britain for failing to have invested in underdeveloped nations.


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15/10/2005
Blast from the past

Thomas Sowell on the difference between left and right:

the left-right dichotomy itself is misleading. Only the left is defined, even approximately. All those who oppose the left, for whatever reason, are lumped together as ‘the right’, however radically they may differ among themselves. Opponents of the left include monarchists and democrats, libertarians and fascists. They share no common assumptions or values. Therefore the dichotomy that lumps them together as ‘the right’ is a false dichotomy.


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15/10/2005
Ik ook!

Ik ook:

Europarlementslid Bart Staes van Groen! eist van Vlaams minister-president Yves Leterme (CD&V) en federaal Landbouwminister Sabine Laruelle (MR) openbaarheid van betoelaging. Staes wil weten wie er geld van Europa krijgt. Hij wil zo verhinderen dat subsidies niet bij de boeren, maar bij internationale concerns terechtkomen. België krijgt 1 miljard euro aan Europese landbouwsubsidies, waarvan er een kwart naar Vlaanderen gaan. In Nederland zijn de bedragen onlangs bekendgemaakt en daaruit blijkt dat biergigant Heineken 9 miljoen euro heeft gekregen en de cateringdienst van luchtvaartmaatschappij KLM 664.000 euro. De Europese landbouwsubsidies zijn onder meer bedoeld om de landbouwers een redelijk inkomen te geven en niet om de multinationals te subsidiëren, aldus Staes.
Staes is echter maar half juist. Als men geen "redelijk" inkomen uit de landbouw kan halen, dan moet men iets anders gaan doen. Er is geen enkele andere werkende bevolkingsgroep die een redelijk inkomen gegarandeerd krijgen via subsidies. Waarom dan landbouwers? Is hier geen sprake van discriminatie? De landbouwsubsidies horen toe aan diegenen die ervoor moeten opdraaien, de belastingbetalers.

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15/10/2005
Belastingen

Sta me toe om nog eens te dwepen met Vincent Van Quickenborne, maar dit lijkt me toch een goede maatregel:

De regering verlaagt het inschrijvingsrecht voor startende bedrijven van 130 euro naar 70 euro. De 0,5% belasting op het startkapitaal van starters valt vanaf 1 januari 2006 ook weg. Zo wil de regering het starten van een bedrijf goedkoper maken. De voorbije twee jaar is het aantal startende ondernemingen met twintig procent gestegen en is het aantal faillissementen met vijf procent gestegen.
We kunnen discussiëren over het (beperkt) belasten van beleggers. Het belasten van ondernemers is pas echt onvergeeflijk.

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15/10/2005
Discriminatie en de nieuwe voorzitter

De kersverse SP-A voorzitter liet zich al meteen gelden met een opmerkelijke uitspraak, zoals gerapporteerd door Luc Van Braekel:

Hoelang nog zullen de werkgevers allochtone jongeren en ongeschoolde jongeren blijven discrimineren?
Zoals Luc opmerkt kan men niet discrimineren op basis van het al dan niet hebben van een diploma, aangezien dit een objectief criterium is. In mijn geval zonder diploma had ik geen werk bij de VLD-studiedienst. Dat zou geen discriminatie vanwege de VLD geweest zijn, maar had misschien wel een falen van ons onderwijssysteem hebben aangetoond. (Of misschien gewoon te dom? Enfin, genoeg gespeculeerd, ik héb een diploma.)
Laten we inderdaad hopen dat dit een "slip of the tongue" is. Vande Lanotte is slim en pragmatisch, althans dat was hij als minister. Ik kan me dus niet voorstellen dat minister Vande Lanotte zoiets bewust gezegd zou hebben. Natuurlijk, hij is nu voorzitter, en ideologie kan het gehaald hebben over pragmatisme. Geen goed begin dan, me dunkt. Overigens, ouderen hebben bij de SP-A ook niet veel meer te zoeken blijkbaar...het moet allemaal jong zijn...als dat geen discriminatie is.

Tijd nu voor wat ongeschoold werk...het gras afmaaien.

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15/10/2005
Iraq votes

unexpected calm...things were going well...sunnis determined to vote..."It’s a new page for the future and something important for the Arab world"... Iraq votes:

In unexpected calm, millions of Iraqis voted on Saturday in a referendum on a new constitution that is designed to reshape the country after Saddam Hussein but which many fear may tear it further apart. Insurgents fought gunbattles with Iraqi and U.S. forces in Ramadi, west of Baghdad, but throughout the capital and much of the rest of the country, voting appeared to go smoothly and securely, with polls set to close at 5 p.m. (1400 GMT). More than 15.5 million Iraqis were eligible to vote in the referendum, which asked them to say "Yes" or "No" to a new draft constitution proposed by parliament, a body dominated by Shi’ite Muslims and ethnic Kurds. Most Sunni Arabs shunned the ballot in January that elected the assembly. Many Sunnis were turning out this time, however. Sunni insurgents threatened to attack the vote, but while mortars landed near a polling station in Baghdad, and several roadside bombs went off around the city and elsewhere, there was much less violence than the U.S. military said might be possible.


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15/10/2005
A kick for kickAAS

This i do not understand:

A story from the Times News network published in the Economics Times of India suggests that the US and the EU have pledged to resolve outstanding differences about reducing agriculture subsides - the issue that is holding up the world trade talks - but are still laying down stiff conditions. They want developing countries, especially stronger wants such as India and Brazil, to share the burden.
"To share the burden." What burden? Eliminating their own tariffs and subsidies is not a burden, it’s a boon. They would benefit from liberalizing their own economy even if rich countries did not kick agricultural subsidies. Of course i’m a liberal economist who believes in comparative advantage and the benefits of openness, and maybe that’s why i don’t understand the use of the term "burden". But i would expect from a site calling itself Kick all agricultural subsidies that it was in favor of kicking ALL agricultural subsidies. If not beneficial here, they don’t suddenly become beneficial in India or Brazil.

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15/10/2005
The Real Chiang Kaishek

...appeared to be a communist, at least for a while.

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15/10/2005
Stay the course

For those who still believe that poverty and inequality is the cause of terrorism, here is a shocker. Poverty is lowest in the most fertile region of terrorism in the developing world: the Middle-East and North-Africa. The Poverty Head Count of $1 a Day is only 2,0%. In Latin-America it’s 14,9%. In Sub-Saharan Africa it’s 42,2%! The same is true for inequality. Only in parts of Asia is inequality lower. But in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin-America inequality is much higher. So if terrorism is caused by poverty and inequality why don’t we see almost much more terrorism coming from Latin-America or South-Africa?

Other explanations seem to be more promising. Although poverty and inequality are low, unemployment is high, especially among young people. Furthermore, the labour market has a dual structure, whith many young muslims waiting in line for better paying jobs in the overprotected public sector, but having to settle for less amenable working conditions in the informal sector. The result is resentment and social grievances.

However, one should not underestimate the role of governance. There are essentialy two kinds of regimes to deal with terror and violence. The one is a totalitarian dictatorship where any kind of violence is repressed. Of course this does not mean there is no violence. We have to settle here for terror from above. The other is a liberal democracy with a vibrant private sector creating jobs and with a political system where the "frustrated" can voice their grievances with peacefull means.

Now we don’t have to accept the solution of a totalitarian dictatorship. But we do have to accept the fact that the transition from a dictatorship towards a full-blown democracy can be very bloody. Indeed, nations in transition are the most vulnerable for terrorism and conflict. Look what’s happening in Iraq, but we had an earlier example in Algeria:

After the fall in oil prices in the mid-1980s, the country experienced severe macroeconomic imbalances and negative output growth. These shocks took place just as the country’s youth population was reaching its peak after growing rapidly in the 1980s by about 3.8 percent a year. Large numbers of young cohorts were entering the labor force, putting labor markets under tremendous stress. Unemployment rose from 16 percent in 1980 to 24 percent in 1992, and for youth, unemployment reached close to 40 percent. The Algerian government was in the middle of implementing moderate political reforms. In 1992, the country was poised to initiate open parliamentary elections. The Islamists, buoyed by the political support of a frustrated young population, seized the day, and the government reacted by canceling the election results. The state’s reserved application of democratic reforms backfired, setting the spark to a conflict that has yet to come to an end
The hesitating transation towards democracy gave Islamists the opportunity and the means to express their frustrations in a violent way. Unfortunately this lead to the cancellation of democratic reforms and the return of dictatorship. However, this did not end the violence.

What is the lesson for Iraq? The lesson is i think that we should stay the course. Ultimately, we can only beat the terrorists by making Iraq a democracy. It will be their final defeat. But in the meantime, be prepared that they will do everything to prevent that. However, Algeria has learned that it’s not a solution to give in and abandon the quest for democracy and liberalization.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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14/10/2005
Should France leave the EU? Yes, please....

France is a menace for world development:

France on Thursday night called for an emergency meeting of European Union ministers to discuss growing concerns in Paris that Europe will concede too much ground in the Doha round of trade talks. The move is expected to force Peter Mandelson, the EU trade commissioner, to cancel his planned trip to Washington next week. Mr Mandelson told the Financial Times he was instead thinking of remaining in Europe to shore up support among EU member states to push the Doha round forward. France’s concerns, backed by 12 other member states, revolve around maintaining the EU’s farm tariffs and subsidies.
Maybe we should just push France out of the European Union, so we could built a better, more liberal one. It were, after all, they who voted no.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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13/10/2005
Capitalism and it’s enemies

In the beginning there was Karl Marx who wrote that capitalism would create giant inequalities between a few rich capitalists and scores of starving poor.

He was wrong.

Lenin saw that de poor in the capitalistic West became richer. The working class became a class of consumers. The victims would be non-Western poor countries who got poorer while the West got richer.

He was wrong.

In 1989 socialist Robert Heilbroner admitted that capitalism lead to prosperty. Poor countries only got poorer because of too little capitalism and markets, not too much. But capitalism, he said, by creating too much wealth, would destroy the environment.

He was wrong.

Bjorn Lomborg proved that, while the economy grew, and we got richer, almost every environmental problem got better, not worse. We saw the most environmental destruction in the control and command economies of the former communist countries is Eastern-Europe. So Marxist historian Eric Hobsbawn had too admit that capitalism was good in almost everything. But, he said, what it could not provide is happiness. So says also Richard Layard.

They are wrong:

happiness hasn’t stopped increasing. According to the World Database of Happiness, directed by the leading Dutch researcher Ruut Veenhoven, satisfaction has increased in most Western countries where we have surveys since 1975. There are diminishing returns , but even at our standard of living people do get happier when societies grow richer. And the happiest places are the most individualist – North America , Northern Europe and Australasia . Another reason for this happiness is that a liberal and market-oriented society allows people freedom to choose. If we get used to it we will get increasingly better at choosing to live and work in ways we like. And if you don’t think you get happier by hard work and mobility, just skip it. A survey showed that 48 percent of Americans had, in the last five years, reduced their working hours, declined promotion, lowered their material expectations or moved to a quieter place. Fast-food or slow-food, no logo or pro logo? In a liberal society, you decide. That is, as long as we are free to make the decisions ourselves. Those who use happiness studies to put forth an anti-market agenda would deny us that freedom. They would tell us how to live our lives, and therefore they would reduce our ability to make such decisions in the future. Despite Layard’s criticism against individualism and materialism even he admits that “we in the West are probably happier than any previous society”. Well, in that case, please, please, please, don’t undermine that society. happiness hasn’t stopped increasing. According to the World Database of Happiness, directed by the leading Dutch researcher Ruut Veenhoven, satisfaction has increased in most Western countries where we have surveys since 1975. There are diminishing returns , but even at our standard of living people do get happier when societies grow richer. And the happiest places are the most individualist – North America , Northern Europe and Australasia . Another reason for this happiness is that a liberal and market-oriented society allows people freedom to choose. If we get used to it we will get increasingly better at choosing to live and work in ways we like. And if you don’t think you get happier by hard work and mobility, just skip it. A survey showed that 48 percent of Americans had, in the last five years, reduced their working hours, declined promotion, lowered their material expectations or moved to a quieter place. Fast-food or slow-food, no logo or pro logo? In a liberal society, you decide. That is, as long as we are free to make the decisions ourselves. Those who use happiness studies to put forth an anti-market agenda would deny us that freedom. They would tell us how to live our lives, and therefore they would reduce our ability to make such decisions in the future. Despite Layard’s criticism against individualism and materialism even he admits that “we in the West are probably happier than any previous society”. Well, in that case, please, please, please, don’t undermine that society.
As Ayn Rand has said capitalism really seems to be the unknown ideal. Then why so many enemies? And why keep they coming? Johan Norberg, is this brilliant lecture has some suggestions. It appears that we are naturally destined to expect the worst, with the media magnifying this tendency. Take this hilarious example:
A few weeks ago, the first story in the leading news shows on television was that there is a “growing environmental threat” in Europe . The problem was shipping, which is rapidly becoming the biggest emitter of sulphur dioxide in Europe . However, if you listened closely to the report, you understood that this was not because of growth of emissions from shipping – it did grow but very modestly – but because of a rapid reduction in emission from other sources. Total sulphur dioxide emissions in Europe (including shipping) have been reduced by about 60 percent in 15 years. So the real story was one about a dramatic improvement in environmental conditions – but shipping was now the thing we have to deal with, and so it was news.
Or this:

In September the United Nations Development Program, UNDP, released its annual report on human development. The press statement talks about the places with growing problems and about the 18 countries that have lagged behind. The report summarises the worldwide situation with statements like ”the overall report card on progress makes for depressing reading” and ”the world is heading for a heavily sign-posted human development disaster”. But how has the poor countries developed as a whole? Hidden away in another place of the report, with much less dramatic wording, the UNDP concludes: ”Looking back over the past decade the long-run trend towards progress in human development has continued. On average, people born in a developing country today can anticipate being wealthier, healthier and better educated than their parent’s generation.” It goes on to say that the last 15 years in poor countries have seen less poverty, reduced infant mortality, better access to clean water, less illiteracy, fewer conflicts and more democracies. This is what they summarise as a “human development disaster”!
And this:

The film, produced by the Public Broadcasting Service, was about the fact that Wal-Mart buys most of its goods from China . This was portrayed as a disaster for America , and for almost an hour it interviewed workers and factory owners who lost their jobs and businesses because of cheap Chinese imports. 1-0 to the anti-globalists. It is true that an American manufacturing worker might lose his job because of this, but there are other effects that the film didn’t show. A Chinese worker gets a job, of course, and if he does he will spend his new income somehow, which means more jobs for export companies and/or Chinese companies. American consumers get cheaper prices, and when they do they can spend their extra purchasing power on new goods and services, and so an unemployed American can get a new job in a new sector. Chinese worker – export company –consumers – new sectors develop: Four good results, in other words 4-1 to the globalists and free-traders.
Like Americans abroad, capitalism can’t be a force for good, so good news is swept under the rug, or washed away with the bad news. Capitalism, the deliberately unknown ideal.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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13/10/2005
Yikes...

And the nobel price for peace goes to....Fidel Castro? Hugo Chavez? al-Zarqawi? George Galloway? Read in horror:

Controversial British playwright and campaigner Harold Pinter has won the 2005 Nobel Prize for literature. Pinter, widely regarded as the UK’s greatest living playwright, is well-known for his left-wing political views. A critic of US and UK foreign policy, he has voiced opposition on a number of issues including the bombing of Afghanistan in 2001. We have brought torture, cluster bombs, depleted uranium, innumerable acts of random murder, misery and degradation to the Iraqi people and call it ’bringing freedom and democracy to the Middle East’," he said in a speech in March.
But we did brought freedom and democracy: there were no elections in Afghanistan and no real elections in Iraq and now there are. There were not elected governments in those countries and now there are. Women were tortured, randomly murdered, lived in misery and degradation in Afghanistan and now they have one third of the seats for them reserved in parlaiment. We did not bring torture, radom murder, degradation and misery...it was already there ...in spades. Iraqi’s did not think we brought all those things. They still think the situation will improve a year from now. They did not thought so under Saddam.

The Nobel committee gave it’s price to a lier. Or, as David T comments to a....

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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13/10/2005
Thatcher: a different view

Chris Dillow makes a strong case against Margaret Thatcher. His conclusion is disenchanting:

There is a common theme (...). It’s that Thatcher was a class warrior, not an economic libertarian. Where market reforms benefited the rich (exchange controls) or bribed floating voters (council house sales), she supported them. Where market reforms could have helped the poor (school vouchers, macro markets), she did nothing. And there remains the suspicion that the 1980-81 recession was welcomed as a means of destroying the traditional working class. And this is where her influence was wholly pernicious. She has given a generation of non-economists the impression that support for free markets is equivalent to support for the vested interests of the rich. Nothing could be further from the truth.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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12/10/2005
Stop talking about it; do it

Jonathan Dingel points us to potential good news:

The European Union has moved to match a US offer to cut controversial agricultural subsidies and tariffs. In an effort to revive stalled World Trade Organization (WTO) talks, US Trade Representative Rob Portman said the US would cut farm subsidies by 60%. EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson responded by indicating that the EU was willing to at least halve it highest tariffs on farm imports.
A comprehensive reduction in all kinds of distortions (not just export subsidies of which the reduction will lead to higher prices and a negative effect for poor food importing countries, but also domestic subsidies, tariff’s and other trade barriers) is what we need. And not only developed countries, but developing countries should eliminate their own barriers too. However, it would be a good thing if the U.S., Europe and Japan took the lead in this.

But talk, of course, still is cheap. We heard all this before, but until now the U.S. only increased it’s subsidies, while Europe isn’t blameless either. And Japan...

As long as rich country talk remains just that, developing countries should help themselves and opt for free trade unilaterally.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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12/10/2005
Reason and selfishness

Adam Smith was not the apostle of selfishness:

There are competing interpretations of Smith on just about everything, including self interest and selfishness. Though mine may still be a minority view of the earthquake passage, I’d like to revisit it. First, here is an example of an interpretation that runs counter to mine. In The Blank State, Steven Pinker quotes the passage from TMS, ending with the famous sentence: "If he were to lose his little finger tomorrow, he would not sleep tonight; but provided he never saw them, he would snore with the most profound security over the ruin of a hundred million of his brethren." (Pinker, p. 288). Pinker concludes that Smith’s view is one in which our "moral sentiments" "overlie a deeper bedrock of selfishness." Nothing to do about it; we’re hard-wired to be selfish and we keep our fingers. If Smith had stopped there, this would all be fine. But he doesn’t. In fact, Smith goes on to make the opposite case. While our first impulses are "sordid and selfish", we’re compelled to overcome our initial sentiments, our high opinion of ourselves and disregard for others, and to sacrifice our interests to theirs. We’re led, not by sentiment or benevolence but by "reason, principle, conscience", to give up the finger.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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11/10/2005
Candidates for a world government

Here is what BBC-watchers think would be the ideal world government. And here are the people i would like to see in such a government (please, no):

1. Tony Blair
2. Christopher Hitchens
3. Milton Friedman
4. Samuel Brittan
5. Ayaan Hirsi Ali
6. Jalal Talabani
7. Paul Wolfowitz
8. Bryan Caplan
9. Alex Tabarrok
10. Bjorn Lomborg
11. Thomas Sowell

Honourable mention: Norman Geras, Chris Dillow, Arnold Kling, Tyler Cowen, Don Boudreaux, Johan Norberg. The only one i would retain from the BBC-list is Alan Greenspan.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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10/10/2005
Reform services! Reform them now!

Although moderation of wage growth has been a defining element of labour market policies in many European countries, it has not lead to a major improvement in unemployment. This IMF Working Paper adresses this puzzle and points to the lack of product market reforms as the reason. In countries were product market reforms has advanced the most wage moderation did lead to less unemployment and higher output growth:

The key finding is that downward wage-curve shifts, that is, “wage moderation,” do raise output and lower unemployment, but the size of the impact depends crucially on the degree of product market regulation. In more regulated product markets, weaker competition and barriers to entry allow incumbent firms to appropriate part of the improved labor supply conditions in the form of higher rents. The positive effect of reform-induced wage moderation on employment and output is therefore muted. Because product markets are more regulated in the euro area than in other industrial countries, wage moderation affects production and unemployment less strongly, which implies that labor market reforms are less effective in raising euro area’s growth potential.
Unfortunately in the biggest part of our economy (especially in terms of employment) - services - barriers to entry are still formidable. If nothing is done here the effect of wage moderation will be muted in the future. What’s more, without reforms there will be no growth in real wages (thanks to lower prices as a consequence of more competition) which will lead to an erosion of union support for wage growth moderation. Something as the Dutch Wassenaar agreement in the beginning of the eighties will no longer be possible. By stalling product market reforms, labour market reforms will be blocked aswell, with still higher unemployment as the result. As the IMF-study concludes:

reforms. Some studies suggest that product market reforms should come first as, by lowering barriers to entry and fostering competition, they tend to increase real wages and reduce unemployment. Higher real wages would buy goodwill from unions and ease implementation of labor market reforms. Thus, adequately sequencing product and labor market reforms can make some reforms more politically acceptable. This paper provides empirical evidence for a direct link between the effectiveness of labor market reforms and the degree of product market competition, which reinforces the political economy message: product market reforms increase the economic benefits of labor market reforms, thus making them more acceptable for workers.
Time is running out for the implemention of the Bolkestein-directive on services.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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10/10/2005
I’m anti-war

Yes. I am. Consider:

I opposed the invasion of Iran by Saddam Hussein;
I opposed the invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein;
I opposed the war of Saddam against his own people;
I oppose the war against the West and Western values started by Al-Qaeda and escalated with the destruction of the Twin Towers on 9/11/2001;
I oppose the war against the infidels openly declared by al-Zarqawi;
I oppose the war of Al-Qaeda and al-Zarqawi against fellow muslims in Iraq and other Western and non-Western countries.

That’s at least six wars. Over the same time period I only supported two. And only because it were wars against tyrannies (Saddam and the Taliban). So generally one can say i’m anti-war. Why not join me to demonstrate our anti-war credentials?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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9/10/2005
What Fisk, Pilger, Ali, Galloway, Klein and other so-called progressives fail to understand

From Open Democracy:

what al-Qaida apparently hates most about “the west” are its best points: the pluralism, the rationalism, individual liberty, the emancipation of women, the openness and social dynamism that represent the strongest legacy of the Enlightenment. These values stand in counterpoint to the tyrannical social code idealised by al-Qaida and by related political groupings such as Afghanistan’s Taliban.

In that sense, “the west” denotes less a geographical space than a mindset: a cultural presence or a sphere of anti-absolutist ideas that the Viennese-born philosopher Karl Popper termed the “open society.” In his day, when fascists and Stalinists held vast parts of the globe, the concept of “the west” prevailed over a smaller territory than today. But with the rise of bin Ladenism, the prevalence of this concept again is shrinking.

It is because bin Ladenism is waging war against the liberal ideal that much of the activist left’s response to 11 September 2001 and the London attacks is woefully, catastrophically inadequate. For we, as progressives, need to uphold the values of pluralism, rationalism, scepticism, women’s rights, and individual liberty and oppose ideologies and movements whose foundations rest on theocracy, obscurantism, misogyny, anti-Semitism, and nostalgia for a lost empire.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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7/10/2005
Eenvoud maakt macht

De slogan van kafka.be, de website van administratief vereenvoudiger Vincent Van Quickenborne (VLD). Een slogan die Q duidelijk tot de zijne heeft gemaakt. Wat de vorige regering niet kon in vier jaar, is nu wel gelukt in twee jaar: het verminderen van de adminstratieve lastendruk met 25%. Voor ondernemingen is ze gedaald met 28%. Bij zelfstandigen bedroeg de vermindering 18%. Als gevolg hiervan liggen de lasten nu lager in België dan in Nederland en de Verenigde Staten. In totaal zijn de lasten voor de bedrijven nu gedaald met 1,7 miljard euro.

Het gekke is dat in tegenstelling tot de vorige regering in het huidige regeerakkoord geen kwantitatieve lange termijn doelstelling is ingeschreven. In de plaats ervan wordt gewerkt met concrete projecten (een twaalf-tal) en dat is blijkbaar een aanpak die wel lukt.

Hoe dan ook, we mogen premier Verhofstadt voor één keer eens volmondig gelijk geven als hij spreekt over een trendbreuk. Minder lasten zijn minder lasten, of het nu om fiscale lasten gaat of niet. Hopelijk erkennen de bedrijfsleiders dit ook. Proficiat, Vincent.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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7/10/2005
God told him to do good deeds. Did he?

Left-wing liberals are having a field day with this and i must admit that it’s really odd and disenchanting to hear an American president - supposed to be the leader of the real world - talking like this. But better a president being told to overthrow tyrannies and to build a Palestinian state than the opposite no?

President George W. Bush told Palestinian ministers that God had told him to invade Afghanistan and Iraq – and create a Palestinian State, a new BBC series reveals. In Elusive Peace: Israel and the Arabs, a major three-part series on BBC TWO (at 9.00pm on Monday 10, Monday 17 and Monday 24 October), Abu Mazen, Palestinian Prime Minister, and Nabil Shaath, his Foreign Minister, describe their first meeting with President Bush in June 2003.

Nabil Shaath says: “President Bush said to all of us: ‘I’m driven with a mission from God. God would tell me, “George, go and fight those terrorists in Afghanistan.” And I did, and then God would tell me, “George, go and end the tyranny in Iraq...” And I did. And now, again, I feel God’s words coming to me, “Go get the Palestinians their state and get the Israelis their security, and get peace in the Middle East.” And by God I’m gonna do it.’”
The Palestinians just may get lucky with this president. After all, he already got two out of three. With the same God-given determination....

UPDATE

Of course i’m assuming that he really said all this and that the assertions of Nabil Saath are true. As LVB points out in comments the White House denies it. According to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, who attended the meeting in June 2003 too, Bush told him that he has a moral and religious obligation to get the Palestinians a state. But that, in my view, is nothing to be ashamed about, on the contrary.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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6/10/2005
Economic growth means and needs change

Capitalism is a progressive system. It needs economic growth and for growth it needs and depends upon change. Change drives economic growth and it drives capitalism. And more growth means less poverty. Real conservatives, those who generally oppose change, should also oppose capitalism:

People always resist change, yet sustained growth relies on a continuous shift in resources to more efficient use. In 1820, for example, 70% of American workers were in agriculture; today 2% are. If all those workers had remained tilling the land, America would now be a lot poorer.
Now if we could get from 70% to 2% and still get much richer, then why could we not go from 2% to zero? Why all those subsidies to keep the remaining 2% in agriculture? It doesn’t make sense, does it?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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6/10/2005
Was Adam Smith a leftie? (Part II)

Two quotes, the first about investors in joint stock companies

The greater part of those proprietors seldom pretend to understand anything of the business of the company, and…give themselves no trouble about it, but receive contentedly such half-yearly or yearly dividend as the directors think proper to make to them. This total exemption from trouble and from risk, beyond a limited sum, encourages many people to become adventurers in joint stock companies, who would, upon no account, hazard their fortunes in any private copartnery. Such companies, therefore, commonly draw to themselves much greater stocks than any private copartnery can boast of.
The second about the managers of those companies:

The directors of such companies, however, being the managers rather of other people’s money than of their own, it cannot well be expected that they should watch over it with the same anxious vigilance with which the partners in a private copartnery frequently watch over their own. Like the stewards of a rich man, they are apt to consider attention to small matters as not for their master’s honour, and very easily give themselves a dispensation from having it. Negligence and profusion, therefore, must always prevail, more or less, in the management of the affairs of such a company.
(Thanks to Chris Dillow for the pointer)

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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5/10/2005
Mandela president van de wereld? En Chomsky minister van buitenlandse zaken?

De Britse omroep BBC stelde aan 15.000 mensen over de hele wereld de vraag wie ze het liefst aan de leiding zouden zien staan van een wereldregering. Nelson Mandela kwam uit de bus als de winnaar. Op de tweede plaats eindigde voormalig Amerikaans president Bill Clinton. Eigenlijk werd gevraagd een team van 11 personen samen te stellen op basis van een lijst van honderd politici, denkers en andere wereldbekende figuren die een ideale wereldregering zouden kunnen vormen. De - enigzins verrassende - lijst volgt hieronder:

1 - Nelson Mandela
2 - Bill Clinton
3 - Dalai Lama
4 - Noam Chomsky
5 - Alan Greenspan
6 - Bill Gates
7 - Steve Jobs
8 - Archbishop Desmond Tutu
9 - Richard Branson
10 - George Soros
11 - Kofi Annan

Stel je voor: een wereldregering bestaande uit Noam Chomsky, Alan Greenspan en Bill Gates! De vierde plaats voor Chomsky is overigens wel opvallend (Michael Moore eindigde 15de), zeker als men weet dat de helft van de antwoorden uit de Verenigde Staten komen.

En George W. Bush? Tja. Ik weet niet hoeveel Irakezen mee gestemd hebben, maar van de rest van de wereld krijgt hij - niet al te verrassend zeker? - weinig krediet, en blijkbaar ook niet van veel Amerikanen. Bush eindigde op de 43ste plaats, achter Fidel Castro en Hugo Chavez (en ver achter Michael Moore). Ach ja, de wereld is onrechtvaardig. De Rwuandezen, in de steek gelaten door de VN van Kofi Annan en de V.S. van Bill Clinton, ten tijde van de genocide, zullen het niet ook graag horen dat Annan en Clinton tot de uitverkorenen des volkeren behoren, denk ik zo. Of denk aan de Sudanezen wiens enige farmaceutische fabriek door Clinton in de as werd gelegd om de aandacht af te leiden van de zaak-Lewinsky.

Ik vraag men, ten slotte, het volgende af. Zouden veel deelnemers wel doorhebben dat zo’n wereldregering vroeg of laat ook voor lastige beslissingen zal komen te staan? Lastige beslissingen in de stijl van het al dan niet met geweld verwijderen van dictators bijvoorbeeld, of het aanpakken van terreurregimes zoals de Taliban. Ik weet niet dat je op zo’n moment wel zo goed af bent met een Chomksy, een Annan, of zelfs een Mandela. En als het resultaat is dat men dictators laat zitten en terroristen ongemoeid laat, waarom heeft men dan een wereldregering nodig?

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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5/10/2005
Verboden te roken

Het Consultancybureau Ernst & Young heeft een onderzoek gehouden naar de mogelijke gevolgen van een rookverbod in de horeca. De studie is uitgevoerd in opdracht van de tabaksector. Op zich moet dit niet leiden tot een bepaalde conclusie, maar het is toch altijd aangewezen dergelijke feiten in het achterhoofd te houden.

Concreet betreft het een bevraging van horecabezoekers en van café- en restaurantuitbaters, alsook van horecapersoneel. Op basis van de antwoorden komt de studie tot de conclusie dat het rookverbod zal leiden tot een daling van de omzet, de sluiting van etablissementen en het verlies van tewerkstelling. Rokers gaan immers vaker op café dan niet-rokers en geven ook meer geld uit. Deze resultaten zijn overigens in overeenstemming met de effecten van het rookverbod in Ierland. In Ierland was er effectief een verlies aan omzet en werkgelegenheid in de horeca.

Maar telt een mensenleven niet meer dan de inkomsten van de horeca-uitbater? Uiteraard. Hier stelt zich dan volgende vraag: is een rookverbod een effectieve maatregel om het roken te verminderen? Een grootschalig Australisch - en dit keer onafhankelijk - onderzoek doet daaraan twijfelen. Er bestaat inderdaad een kans dat dergelijke strenge wetgeving rokers sneller doet stoppen en niet-rokers ervan weerhoudt om te starten. Maar, zo stellen de onderzoekers vast, voor grote groepen is er geen enkel effect waar te nemen, en voor de groep tussen 18 en 24 jaar neemt men een pervers effect waar. Voor jongeren blijkt een strenge wetgeving vaak een aanzet om te rebelleren.

Kortom, waarom een strenge wetgeving als het effect op het rookgedrag onzeker is, maar die wel belangrijke kosten met zich meebrengt? Overigens pleiten ook maar weinig niet-rokers voor een rookverbod, meestal is een goede ventilatie of een gescheiden rookruimte voldoende. Ook dit blijkt uit het onderzoek van Ernst & Young.

Moet er dan niets gedaan worden? Toch wel. Ten eerste. Waarom niet vertrekken van de vaststelling dat de harde aanpak vaak leidt tot rebellie en dus uiteindelijke weinig effectief is? Waarom niet proberen jongeren ervan te overtuigen dat net niet-roken “cool” en “rebels” is? Geef ze een alternatief waarin ze hun rebelsheid kunnen botvieren.

Ten tweede blijkt ook nog uit het Australisch onderzoek dat bepaalde groepen kwetsbaar zijn. De meeste rokers vindt men, naast jongeren, terug bij alcoholgebruikers, mensen met een lage opleiding en werklozen (welk aantal zou toenemen in geval van een rookverbod!). De onderzoekers pleiten voor een aangepast beleid voor deze groepen. Maar nog beter natuurlijk is een goed draaiende economie met weinig werklozen en goed geschoolde burgers. Ik heb echter zo het gevoel dat een rookverbod daar niet veel aan zal bijdragen.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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5/10/2005
The era of ... (fill in yourself) government is over

Debate is raging over who will be the ultimate victim of Hurricane Katrina: limited government and free markets, or big government. In Europe and in some political headquarters in the U.S. the conclusion it clear: the era of limited government is over, as if it even existed (under Bush). But it’s not clear the American public thinks in the same way. Jonathan Rauch has some interesting facts to report:

In the public’s mind, the storm was only the first of two disasters; government’s poor performance was the second. The public took note that Wal-Mart responded in hours while Washington seemed to take days, and that insurance adjusters seemed to arrive before the National Guard. In a September poll by Zogby International, 86 percent of the public rated private charities’ response to the hurricane as good or excellent; only a third said the same of the government.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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4/10/2005
Too little capitalism

Sarah Baxter, a former editor of the left-wing New Statesman, but supporter of the first and second Gulf Wars, reviews An Empire of Wealth: The Epic History of American Economic Power:

The author is an ardent exponent of the virtues of free trade. Adam Smith, he notes, published The Wealth of Nations in 1776, America’s founding year. An Empire of Wealth is a bravura account of the energy and creativity that led the pioneers to cut a swathe across the prairies, navvies to build the Erie canal in record time, opening the mid-west to trade and industry, and prospectors lured by gold to populate California.

We don’t learn much about their suffering, although there was plenty. When I am in my most combative defend-America mode, I feel inclined to say you don’t often hear Americans complain about the life they and their forefathers left behind in old Europe, which was usually grimmer. But hurricane Katrina was a reminder that you can’t write the poor out of the picture permanently and that not all Americans arrived voluntarily.

Gordon is less interested in the condition of the masses than the achievements of the innovators, who became the great tycoons and bankers such as Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie, John D. Rockefeller and J.P. Morgan. Carnegie was the son of an unemployed handloom weaver from Scotland who worked his way up from bobbin boy to steel magnate. On a visit to Sheffield, he grasped the importance of the newly-invented Bessemer converter and by the end of the 19th century his company was outproducing the entire British steel industry.

Carnegie was not the only industrialist to profit from British inventions, which were frequently spied on and imitated. In fact Gordon ascribes much of America’s success from the arrival of the Pilgrim fathers onwards to the influence of Britain - a useful corrective to the view that Americans built something out of nothing in the wilderness.

The great tycoons, Gordon argues, were nonetheless heroic. Often derided as robber barons, many disbursed their wealth to charitable and educational foundations, whose effects are still felt. I’ve just been watching the BBC World Service on American public television, which is paid for out of the small change of the Ford and Rockefeller foundations. Carnegie, who established 2,500 free libraries, thought it shameful for rich men to die wealthy. Even the worst barons usually ended up lowering the prices of goods, bringing consumer choice to the poorest homes.

In the south, where aristocrats sponsored the first settlements, a landowning elite held sway over an impoverished population. The result was a pattern of development much more like the third world with a vicious twist: slavery. When its agricultural economy encountered the industrial revolution there was a ’terrible synergy’ť. The invention of the cotton gin made the slaves more productive and their owners more determined to cling on to their labour.

The least free part of America was also the poorest: not a coincidence. Gordon argues that the United States would be more like Argentina - another large, abundant country - had it been colonized by the Spanish. It left me wondering about the peculiar legacy of the French influence on the elegantly decayed and venal city of la nouvelle-Orleans. Once New Orleans lost its trading prosperity (the Erie canal stripped it of its position as the mid-west’s premier port), it seems clear that the city went on to suffer from too little capitalism, rather than too much.
Something to add to the to read pile.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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4/10/2005
Was Adam Smith a leftie?

William Rees-Mogg argues in the affirmative. Smith, and other freedom lovers, were left-wingers...in the 18th-century:

Samuel Johnson remains firmly established as a archetypal Tory figure of the Right. Yet Adam Smith, who would equally have been seen as left-wing, if the term had been in use in the 1770s, is now a more important influence on conservative thought than Samuel Johnson himself.

The Wealth of Nations is a subtle and well-considered book, nothing like the crude laissez-faire tract it is imagined to be by bishops and other people who have never read it. Yet it is not only the foundation of classical liberal economics, but of modern conservatism. So far as I know, Adam Smith has not yet been mentioned by name in the current Conservative leadership contest, but David Davis has introduced an argument that is clearly derived from Smith’s thought.

Mr Davis argues that free-market systems can deliver better social services than state bureaucracies. Free-market systems are more productive and respond better to the needs of customers. Whether one is dealing with hospitals or schools, an element of choice creates competitive pressures that can be expected to improve outcomes. Market systems do not provide less welfare than state socialist systems, but more and better welfare at lower cost, and therefore at lower taxes. I think this argument is correct, but in modern terms it is unquestionably regarded as right-wing. Why was it left-wing in the 18th century and why has it become right-wing now?

It is not just Adam Smith or economic theory that have moved from left to right. Apart from Gordon Brown, most of us who have been influenced by the Scottish Enlightenment are now perceived as holding right-of-centre views on liberty itself. Even the American Declaration of Independence is now quoted far more often by conservatives than by socialists.

In 1786, three years before the French Revolution, another hero of mine, John Millar, the Glasgow professor of law, a friend both of Hume and Smith, dedicated his Historical View of the English Government to the radical Whig leader Charles James Fox.

Millar’s view is the classic statement of that liberal view of English history that has become the conservative view: “The British government is the only one in the annals of mankind that has aimed at the diffusion of liberty through a multitude of people, spread over a wide extent of territory.” There is still truth in that, even after the end of Empire. Yet nowadays the whole trend of government is moving in the opposite direction.

In a strange way, 200 years of history has moved the political ideal of liberty decisively across the spectrum from the Centre Left to the Centre Right. At least that gives people such as myself, who put liberty first, in the satisfactory position of being progressive thinkers, if only in 18th-century terms.
Nice. I’ve always considered myself to be a right-wing progressive. Sometimes i think if Adam Smith would be alive today he would describe himself in the same way.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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4/10/2005
Thirsty for privitazation

This is quite odd:

Sierra Leone is the world’s second poorest country, after Niger. Only 28 per cent of Sierra Leone’s population has access to safe water and sanitation. Yet it is next in line for the UK Government’s perilous water privatisation package. The system is in urgent need of reform and investment. But, rather than assess a number of reform options, the UK Government is targeting Sierra Leone for a water privatisation contract.
The World Development Movement admits that the state run system in Sierre Leone fails to bring water to the vast majority of the people. It admits that investment is needed. And it admits that the state runned system needs reforms. Now if the state run system fails that spectaculary what other reforms then are there than bringing in some investment and money from the private sector? The World Development Movement seems out of idea’s when it comes to that (apart from more governement, if you fail, fail big?). Instead it embarkes on a one-sided smear campaign. Pathetic.
(Thanks to Alex Singleton for the pointer.)

Gepost door/Posted by: The Flemish Waterdrinker

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3/10/2005
Just do it

When Pieter Cleppe posted about this report from Razeen Sally about the ineffectiveness of the World Trade Organisation I disagreed. It’s quite odd to accuse the WTO of being ineffective and at the same time warning against the danger of the WTO becoming a embryonal world government.

But I disagreed mostly because I think that the WTO does have an important role to play in liberalizing world trade.Absent some external force, trade distortions tend to remain in place. And not only that. According to the latest World Economic Outlook openness and trade is associated with a greater likelyhood of insitutional transitions and with greater institutional quality. Open countries are better and more effectively ruled. And while limited, the WTO played a role here, catalyzing the process of reducing trade barriers and promoting competition. As an example, WTO accession supported China’s implementation of significant liberalization reforms, including opening up more sectors for private and foreign investment. The reason why this role is limited is because the WTO does not have the powers a embryonal world goverment would have.

On the other hand the WTO is not ineffective either. When membership in the GATT/WTO is considered in the right way - as this paper does - then analyses shows that GATT/WTO did increase trade substantially.

But I disagree only in part with Pieter and with Razeen Sally. The right strategy should indeed be one of "just do it". Developing countries should open up even if rich developed countries don’t. In the past - and here liberalization from above via the GATT did turned out to be ineffective - developing countries asked and got so-called "special and different treatment" which meant that they did not have to lower barriers as much and as fast as developed countries. The practical result however was that the rich countries reneged on their commitment to eliminate trade barriers harmfull for poor countries (eg. textiles and clothing).

This is what Arvind Panagaria calls the "protection racket"(FP subscription required): developing countries waiting in vain for rich countries to drop their trade barriers. But if lowering trade barriers by rich countries would benefit poor countries (as many ngo’s contend) then why should the same no be true if developing countries liberalized their economies themselves? Indeed, the examples of South-Korea, China and Chile, among many others, show this to be the case. The fact is that poor countries will lose from their own trade barriers, independently from what rich developed countries do. Lowering trade barriers makes the domestic market less profitable in relation to world markets thus encouraging companies to export more. Opennes brings in new technology and stimulates competition.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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2/10/2005
The relativity of a competitiveness index

This week the World Economic Forum released it’s competitiveness index for 2004. Finland and the United States top the ranking. Belgium lost six places and ended in 31st place. Not a good result of course, but one should not make too much out of this. It’s not that in other indexes Belgium has a better ranking, as our prime minister pointed out. The fact is, rather, that such rankings does not really have much economic sense at all:

The principle of comparative advantage teaches us that two traders don’t compete for shares of a fixed pie -- their trade enlarges the pie. Likewise, trading nations don’t compete for shares of a fixed world pie -- they trade, and thereby enlarge the world pie. Even the country with the least absolute advantage (poorest at turning inputs into outputs) has a comparative advantage (low opportunity cost in foregone outputs) in producing something, and thus can successfully export that something (can “compete” in some world markets). Even the richest country can’t successfully export everything (cannot "compete" in some world markets). Nonetheless the World Economic Forum (the folks who annually hold a confab for movers and shakers in Davos, Switzerland) has released a ranking of the overall “competitiveness” of 117 of the world’s economies. (...)(I)t ranks how well a country’s economic policies and institutions match the set of policies and institutions desired by the World Economic Forum. Which is all very interesting – but it isn’t really a measure of competitiveness. The notion of overall competitiveness is simply nonsense. Finland, which was ranked first, can’t compete in producing bananas or wine.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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2/10/2005
President Kennedy: myth and reality

1. Liberal JFK and conservative Richard Nixon were enemies:
Wrong, JFK respected Nixon, and preferred him to liberal members of his own party.

2. John and Bobby Kennedy Opposed McCarthyism.
Wrong, both Bobby and John were friends with, and politically supported, McCarthy.

3. Kennedy’s Domestic Policy Agenda was Liberal.
Wrong, Kennedy was stand-offish toward the Civil Rights movement and cut the capital gains tax.

4. Kennedy was a Foreign Policy Liberal who Planned to Let Communists Take over in South Vietnam.
Wrong, Kennedy was a Cold Warrior and anti-communist.

For the historical record, see here.

Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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2/10/2005
Blast from the past

Was president Kennedy murdered because he, and he alone, wanted to withdraw from South-Vietnam? Many of his devote followers still maintain this, but the documentary evidence says otherwise:

Conspiracists have touted the fact that John Kennedy approved a 1,000 man troop withdrawal from Vietnam, and further that plans were in place at the time of his death to end U.S. involvement by the end of 1965. Thus his death supposedly brought on a radical change of policy that resulted in a half-million American troops in Vietnam, and a war that did not end for another decade. Sometimes Kennedy’s supposed dovishness is claimed to have been secret. Loyal aide Kenny O’Donnell, for example, reported that JFK (in O’Donnell’s words) ". . . had made up his mind that after his reelection he would take the risk of uppopularity and make a complete withdrawal of American forces from Vietnam" (Johnny, We Hardly Knew Ye, Boston, 1972, p. 13). Letting Vietnam fall to the Communists before then would, supposedly, have had unfortunate political consequences. This seems an odd argument from Kennedy’s friends and supporters, since it implies he was willing to squander many lives to avoid the political consequences of withdrawal, and that his hawkish rhetoric was intentionally misleading. Given that all of Kennedy’s key advisors remained in Washington and served the Johnson Administration, Kennedy has to be seen as rather the lone dove — a man with more restraint and better judgement than the advisors who surrounded him. But in fact neither the "1,000 man withdrawal" nor the intention to be out of Vietnam by 1965 were secret Kennedy plans, nor did they pit Kennedy against his advisors. Both were announced in a White House statement on October 2, 1963. But there was a terribly important proviso attached: the South Vietnamese were expected to be able to defend themselves against Communist agression.


Gepost door/Posted by: Ivan

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Kranten - Magazines

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Columnisten

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 Workingforchange